
Originally Posted by
Lasterman
No matter what measures are put in place and for how long they run, not a single life will be saved. Not one. What they will/might do is extend some lives for a period of time. This is an important distinction because extending those lives is coming at the cost of shortening others.
Figures for the first week in April suggest there were around 10,000 'excess' deaths with around 60% being connected to(but not necessarily caused by) the virus. That means there were 4,000 other deaths which weren't expected and weren't connected to the virus. Some may have been connected, but unidentified, but it's fair to assume that a lot of people are dying who otherwise wouldn't, and not a great leap to assume that the current situation is having a major impact.
Now going back to my first point, these lockdown measures are extending some lives, but by how much? Similarly they're shortening some lives, but by how much? What if the average person who dies with Covid-19 had only 9 months to live and the average person who died through colateral damage had three years? Not saying that's the case, but the real numbers may be an eye-opener. We surely need to look at the amount of life lost through different courses of action rather than the number of lives lost.
You'd like to think that those making the decisions are looking at the full picture but I wouldn't bank on it.