OT. Schools...normality and Coronavirus.

[Geoff Parkstone]

The economic recovery is not about profit per se, though that helps. Its about preventing huge numbers of non covid deaths due to under-resourced NHS and other public services, due to huge hits against the public purse in falling tax revenue of various shades.

Economy doesn't work, taxes fall, expenditure must fall as the magic money tree has no leaves left after covid support has taken them.

Those extra subsequent deaths won't be counted as Covid deaths, but they will be down to the inability to restart post covid initial waves.

Sure we can all hunker down for a other 3, 6 months sat at home watching netflix, whatever but one day the bullet will need to be bitten. In 6 months we would walk into a devastated environment with all public services being massacred, hyperinflation as money is printed to keep the basics going etc etc.

Economically we can no more let covid overwhelm us than we could let it overwhelm the NHS 9 weeks ago. We have to avoid cuts to the NHS in the future when tax take may be down 25%

Or to put it in teacherspeak, if future deaths don't get through to you, a 25% cut in education budget, the inevitable job losses, increase in class sizes, slash and burn of SNC budgets etc, reduced quality education for all

[Trickytreesreds]

The economic recovery is not about profit per se, though that helps. Its about preventing huge numbers of non covid deaths due to under-resourced NHS and other public services, due to huge hits against the public purse in falling tax revenue of various shades.

Economy doesn't work, taxes fall, expenditure must fall as the magic money tree has no leaves left after covid support has taken them.

Those extra subsequent deaths won't be counted as Covid deaths, but they will be down to the inability to restart post covid initial waves.

Sure we can all hunker down for a other 3, 6 months sat at home watching netflix, whatever but one day the bullet will need to be bitten. In 6 months we would walk into a devastated environment with all public services being massacred, hyperinflation as money is printed to keep the basics going etc etc.

Economically we can no more let covid overwhelm us than we could let it overwhelm the NHS 9 weeks ago. We have to avoid cuts to the NHS in the future when tax take may be down 25%

Or to put it in teacherspeak, if future deaths don't get through to you, a 25% cut in education budget, the inevitable job losses, increase in class sizes, slash and burn of SNC budgets etc, reduced quality education for all

Very well put GP.
That is the point most of us are trying to make.

If you house is trying to catch fire with an electrical fault. You can keep throwing cups of water at it to stay safe.
Sooner or later, you are going to have deal with that problem head on, or when someone turns your water off. You're in the crapper.

[ramAnag]

The economic recovery is not about profit per se, though that helps. Its about preventing huge numbers of non covid deaths due to under-resourced NHS and other public services, due to huge hits against the public purse in falling tax revenue of various shades.

Economy doesn't work, taxes fall, expenditure must fall as the magic money tree has no leaves left after covid support has taken them.

Those extra subsequent deaths won't be counted as Covid deaths, but they will be down to the inability to restart post covid initial waves.

Sure we can all hunker down for a other 3, 6 months sat at home watching netflix, whatever but one day the bullet will need to be bitten. In 6 months we would walk into a devastated environment with all public services being massacred, hyperinflation as money is printed to keep the basics going etc etc.

Economically we can no more let covid overwhelm us than we could let it overwhelm the NHS 9 weeks ago. We have to avoid cuts to the NHS in the future when tax take may be down 25%

Or to put it in teacherspeak, if future deaths don't get through to you, a 25% cut in education budget, the inevitable job losses, increase in class sizes, slash and burn of SNC budgets etc, reduced quality education for all

Why do you always have to do that, GP? You make a fair point and then make some silly ‘teacherspeak’ reference. Do you somehow think teachers are in some way ‘immune’ to all that’s going on. Would it be fair of me to say in ‘accountantspeak’ and then suggest you know the cost of everything but the value of nothing?

Where have I said we should all ‘hunker down for another 3 to 6 months sat at home watching Netflix’?
I want a return to work/normality as soon as it is SAFELY possible just as much as you. I haven’t put any sort of time frame on things but it won’t be possible for schools to return normally before September and I firmly believe that a reliable ‘test, track and trace’ system needs to be in place before any full return.

I can provide four scenarios to illustrate the point. The public school kids who are my near neighbours have now been told that they will not be returning to school until September but will have online lessons for the remainder of this term. My five year old Y1 grandchild is meant to be returning for a 50% timetable from June 2nd. My daughter is meant to be returning to work as a Y6 teacher working in Staffordshire on the same day and my grandchildren in the USA have been told, like the Scots, that there will be no return until next term.

Like the government you, Tricky and Swale seem to believe that there is a ‘magic date’ when the virus will have been overcome or the risk will have diminished to such an extent that everyone can return to school and work as normal.

There is, imo, no such thing. It will vary from country to country and region to region as I have described above, and it is best to let the experts within those countries and regions make the judgement call. I understand the economic argument but what could be worse than a second wave that starts the whole thing off again because we try and kick start things too quickly?

[MadAmster]

[QUOTE=ramAnag;39499140]Why do you always have to do that, GP? /QUOTE]

Oh, how I miss Roger Ramjet.

[swaledale]

Why do you always have to do that, GP? You make a fair point and then make some silly ‘teacherspeak’ reference. Do you somehow think teachers are in some way ‘immune’ to all that’s going on. Would it be fair of me to say in ‘accountantspeak’ and then suggest you know the cost of everything but the value of nothing?

Where have I said we should all ‘hunker down for another 3 to 6 months sat at home watching Netflix’?
I want a return to work/normality as soon as it is SAFELY possible just as much as you. I haven’t put any sort of time frame on things but it won’t be possible for schools to return normally before September and I firmly believe that a reliable ‘test, track and trace’ system needs to be in place before any full return.

I can provide four scenarios to illustrate the point. The public school kids who are my near neighbours have now been told that they will not be returning to school until September but will have online lessons for the remainder of this term. My five year old Y1 grandchild is meant to be returning for a 50% timetable from June 2nd. My daughter is meant to be returning to work as a Y6 teacher working in Staffordshire on the same day and my grandchildren in the USA have been told, like the Scots, that there will be no return until next term.

Like the government you, Tricky and Swale seem to believe that there is a ‘magic date’ when the virus will have been overcome or the risk will have diminished to such an extent that everyone can return to school and work as normal.

There is, imo, no such thing. It will vary from country to country and region to region as I have described above, and it is best to let the experts within those countries and regions make the judgement call. I understand the economic argument but what could be worse than a second wave that starts the whole thing off again because we try and kick start things too quickly?

Sorry RA you have completely misread and misinterpreted what I have said. because the exact opposite is true, there is NO magic date (barring a vaccine becoming available which is effective) that the virus will have been overcome. Its here to stay and as such those comfortably settled into their homes have to understand that
1) They will need to come out and resume life in as normal way as possible
2) That the risk of them (assuming they are not in an "at risk group") dying from Corvid-19 is remote and actually less likely than other risks which up until this pandemic I'd wager they never even thought about.
3) If we don't get the economy working again soon, then those 20,000 deaths as a result of the lock down which are not directly due to the virus will increase and more than likely outstrip those deaths from the virus.
4) Thousands of people from NHS staff care home staff, transport workers, supermarket staff etc have been working normally throughout this crisis and coming into contact with hundreds if not thousands of strangers every day and surprise surprise there has not be a huge number of deaths amongst those workers in percentage terms.
5) It simply isn't going to be possible and never has been possible to guarantee that life is safe, risks have to be managed and in a measured sensible way, admittedly society seems to think (when it suits it) that all risk of death can be avoided but in reality that s not true and we seem happy to drive in what are basically mobile bombs on our roads and accept the 6,000 plus casualties per year as an acceptable hazard and I could quote a fair few other things we do that could be easily avoided and actually reduce thousands of people dying every year, but which by and large we don't.

Italy which was very badly hit by the disease - largely it seems due to the high numbers of elderly people is now coming out of lock down, Denmark has got schools back up and running and Sweden and South Korea never had lock downs.

Its not simply the economy, its peoples lives, especially the younger generations who have had and will have their lives blighted by this approach, the cure will if continued be much worse and much longer lasting than the virus.

[ramAnag]

O

Sorry RA you have completely misread and misinterpreted what I have said. because the exact opposite is true, there is NO magic date (barring a vaccine becoming available which is effective) that the virus will have been overcome. Its here to stay and as such those comfortably settled into their homes have to understand that
1) They will need to come out and resume life in as normal way as possible
2) That the risk of them (assuming they are not in an "at risk group") dying from Corvid-19 is remote and actually less likely than other risks which up until this pandemic I'd wager they never even thought about.
3) If we don't get the economy working again soon, then those 20,000 deaths as a result of the lock down which are not directly due to the virus will increase and more than likely outstrip those deaths from the virus.
4) Thousands of people from NHS staff care home staff, transport workers, supermarket staff etc have been working normally throughout this crisis and coming into contact with hundreds if not thousands of strangers every day and surprise surprise there has not be a huge number of deaths amongst those workers in percentage terms.
5) It simply isn't going to be possible and never has been possible to guarantee that life is safe, risks have to be managed and in a measured sensible way, admittedly society seems to think (when it suits it) that all risk of death can be avoided but in reality that s not true and we seem happy to drive in what are basically mobile bombs on our roads and accept the 6,000 plus casualties per year as an acceptable hazard and I could quote a fair few other things we do that could be easily avoided and actually reduce thousands of people dying every year, but which by and large we don't.

Italy which was very badly hit by the disease - largely it seems due to the high numbers of elderly people is now coming out of lock down, Denmark has got schools back up and running and Sweden and South Korea never had lock downs.

Its not simply the economy, its peoples lives, especially the younger generations who have had and will have their lives blighted by this approach, the cure will if continued be much worse and much longer lasting than the virus.

1) I am not disputing that.
2) Which other risks? Actually dying from Covid isn’t the only concern.
3) I’m not sure what these 20,000 deaths ‘as a result of the lockdown’ are.
4) Yes, many people have not been affected, but 250,000 in this country have.
5) Of course life is full of risks, I totally accept that. The comparison with driving though is nonsense. Vehicles only become ‘mobile bombs’ when driven by idiots and you claim 6,000 casualties per year. You can add to that 1800 deaths per year, but it’s a great deal less than the 250,000 ‘casualties’/incidents and 35,000 deaths due to Covid-19 in the last two and a half months.

Italian Schools will not be reopening until September. Neither will many in the U.S. Scottish Schools will not be reopening until the new Autumn Term. Are they all wrong too?

[swaledale]

O

1) I am not disputing that.
2) Which other risks? Actually dying from Covid isn’t the only concern.
3) I’m not sure what these 20,000 deaths ‘as a result of the lockdown’ are.
4) Yes, many people have not been affected, but 250,000 in this country have.
5) Of course life is full of risks, I totally accept that. The comparison with driving though is nonsense. Vehicles only become ‘mobile bombs’ when driven by idiots and you claim 6,000 casualties per year. You can add to that 1800 deaths per year, but it’s a great deal less than the 250,000 ‘casualties’/incidents and 35,000 deaths due to Covid-19 in the last two and a half months.

Italian Schools will not be reopening until September. Neither will many in the U.S. Scottish Schools will not be reopening until the new Autumn Term. Are they all wrong too?

So RA if the car had been invented today, a missile full of explosive liquid under sole human control and reliant upon the sanity etc. of the person driving it, you think it would just be accepted?

Also those deaths and injuries are very year, indeed were at one time much higher than that, but we have through design of cars and roads reduced this. And to say that every accident is caused by idiots is to take a very superior approach to the issue, anybody can have an accident through no fault of themselves or anyone else, or it can be a momentary error, not recklessness!

Anyway my point was we accept the risk every time we get in the car personally a risk over which we only have a certain amount of control, its a risk which is similar to the virus, we can take some precautions, but there is much that we cannot control.

Yes there have been over 30,000 deaths from the virus but again it is clear who is most at risk, the average healthy person is no more at risk of injury/death from Covid-19 than driving a car.

The other risks which result in deaths that a large proportion of the population seem to ignore very day, are diet, smoking, air pollution, drugs, air travel, sports the list is endless - the information about diet is out there, yet we have a large proportion of the population who die earlier than expected due to poor diet, strokes, heart attacks, amputations etc etc.

You mention 250,000 cases, (in a population of £63 million I'm sure you can work out the percentages, the majority have had no ill effects, do a little research on other health issues that have devastating effects on people that occur very day all year every year, the numbers will astound you.

Lastly the excess deaths, are due to other health issues that have not been treated, diagnosed etc. due to the health service being overwhelmed , services not being available, again these are heavily weighted towards older people, BUT mental health issues strokes, cancer, have not been picked up or the people involved are not going to the DR/hospital either through fear of catching Covid-19 or just not being able to access the service. These deaths will rise and will undoubtedly outstrip deaths from Covid-19. Whats more there will be a long term impact affecting people for years.

I suspect the Government hasn't got the bottle to enforce a return to school, ironically as its the least risky option, but most people will have to get back to work alongside those who have had no choice but to work through anyway.

[ramAnag]

So RA if the car had been invented today, a missile full of explosive liquid under sole human control and reliant upon the sanity etc. of the person driving it, you think it would just be accepted?

Also those deaths and injuries are very year, indeed were at one time much higher than that, but we have through design of cars and roads reduced this. And to say that every accident is caused by idiots is to take a very superior approach to the issue, anybody can have an accident through no fault of themselves or anyone else, or it can be a momentary error, not recklessness!

Anyway my point was we accept the risk every time we get in the car personally a risk over which we only have a certain amount of control, its a risk which is similar to the virus, we can take some precautions, but there is much that we cannot control.

Yes there have been over 30,000 deaths from the virus but again it is clear who is most at risk, the average healthy person is no more at risk of injury/death from Covid-19 than driving a car.

The other risks which result in deaths that a large proportion of the population seem to ignore very day, are diet, smoking, air pollution, drugs, air travel, sports the list is endless - the information about diet is out there, yet we have a large proportion of the population who die earlier than expected due to poor diet, strokes, heart attacks, amputations etc etc.

You mention 250,000 cases, (in a population of £63 million I'm sure you can work out the percentages, the majority have had no ill effects, do a little research on other health issues that have devastating effects on people that occur very day all year every year, the numbers will astound you.

Lastly the excess deaths, are due to other health issues that have not been treated, diagnosed etc. due to the health service being overwhelmed , services not being available, again these are heavily weighted towards older people, BUT mental health issues strokes, cancer, have not been picked up or the people involved are not going to the DR/hospital either through fear of catching Covid-19 or just not being able to access the service. These deaths will rise and will undoubtedly outstrip deaths from Covid-19. Whats more there will be a long term impact affecting people for years.

I suspect the Government hasn't got the bottle to enforce a return to school, ironically as its the least risky option, but most people will have to get back to work alongside those who have had no choice but to work through anyway.

I really couldn’t say, Swale, but to describe cars as ‘mobile bombs’ seems to be somewhat of an exaggeration to me.

You really can not compare risks when one leads to an average of 1800 deaths per year and the other leads to 36,000 (not ‘over 30k’) deaths in two and a half months.

Yes 250,000 is a very small % of 67 million, but it’s artificially small precisely because of the steps we’ve been taking, and I’ve never disputed the existence of the other conditions you rightly speak of but I very much doubt they’ve led to 36,000 deaths since March.

The government almost certainly hasn’t got the ‘bottle’ as you put it, because it knows that to restart compulsory attendance at school would be both very unpopular and impossible to implement.

I’d be much happier if it, and the three odd amigos on here, would recognise that a return to school should be done gradually on a region by region basis as part of an effort not to compromise the ‘R’ which is only where it is, between 0.7 - 1.0, because of the restrictions of the last couple of months.

[swaledale]

I really couldn’t say, Swale, but to describe cars as ‘mobile bombs’ seems to be somewhat of an exaggeration to me.

You really can not compare risks when one leads to an average of 1800 deaths per year and the other leads to 36,000 (not ‘over 30k’) deaths in two and a half months.

Yes 250,000 is a very small % of 67 million, but it’s artificially small precisely because of the steps we’ve been taking, and I’ve never disputed the existence of the other conditions you rightly speak of but I very much doubt they’ve led to 36,000 deaths since March.

The government almost certainly hasn’t got the ‘bottle’ as you put it, because it knows that to restart compulsory attendance at school would be both very unpopular and impossible to implement.

I’d be much happier if it, and the three odd amigos on here, would recognise that a return to school should be done gradually on a region by region basis as part of an effort not to compromise the ‘R’ which is only where it is, between 0.7 - 1.0, because of the restrictions of the last couple of months.

Well I'll take the first part first, yes handling this crisis on a regional basis would be best, indeed local emergency planners have complained that its very centralised and there is insufficient information and poor communication from central government, who appear to be politically opposed to local government at precisely the time its needed and also worried about controlling the flow of information and how its presented. Not very successfully as the backlash from devolved countries and local authorities has shown.

There is much dispute about the calculation of the R figure, scientifically as it depends upon the quality of the data and may not be that useful in the control of the virus anyway - its too complicated to explain here. However its irrelevant in the case of children as the current information is that they are neither major spreaders or affected by the virus.

Another point about R is that actually we need the virus to spread, to increase the percentage of the population who have it in order to get back to normal life!

Again there is a misconception that the lockdown was about stopping infection per se, when in fact its designed to stop a large number of cases occurring at the same time and overwhelming the NHS, that has been successful and planning beyond that the only way forward is to have the resources to deal with infected people and track and test.

This virus isn't going away but unless its very different from other coronaviruses, immunity will build up and it will become something we live like flu.

OK so 250,000 infections is artificially low, firstly because its suspected that the figure is most likely double that - a lot of people have been asymptomatic, so not aware they have had it, others have had it but its not being confirmed by testing.

Conversely the death rate could well be exaggerated, many thousands of people were dying of something else have been attributed on death certificates to Covid-19 when there has been no test to confirm. It has been admitted by Government scientists that there is considerable overlap between deaths from flu and Covid-19, so its a moot point about how many additional people have died from Covid-19 who wouldn't have died anyway. But lets be generous and say 20,000.

So a virus that kills 36,000 (last time I looked that was over 30K but hey ho) in one year, is worse than continuous factors which could be addressed that kills an average 30,000 every year - I'm talking excess winter deaths due to respiratory diseases, poor diet, poor housing and air pollution, deaths that could be avoided if action was taken. Whilst obviously its worse than driving that injures or kills over 6,000 every year? Flu kills around 17,000 every year.

So even though all the evidence shows that children are not at risk (unless classed as vulnerable due to health reasons), that they do not on current evidence act as major spreaders of Covid-19 and that teachers are certainly at lower risk in their job of infection, than the thousands of workers who meet and deal with hundreds of different people everyday, you feel that they should not return to work?

Bear in mind that the thousands of people who have had to work, often having to travel by public transport, have not actually suffered significant levels of death or illness either (I'm not suggesting that any death is not tragic) so that the risk of working is clearly not at the level suggested.

So whats your alternative? That everyone who works should be able to choose whether or not they go back to work? How exactly is that going to be paid for?

Its very easy to take a risk averse approach if it costs one nothing to the individual to do so. In the current situation if your sick, or of an age considered vulnerable then the vast majority, can sit in their homes claim their pensions and protect themselves. However for the young and those at work a return to normal life (with suitable precautions) is essential as soon as possible for both their well being and the country's.