Quote Originally Posted by BCram View Post
Very interesting concept. Do you think there is a Barnet subsidy? Do you have a solution to the currency question? Not having a go Deeranged. You might be able to provide opinions that do not rely on SNP dogma. I doubt the wisdom of independence in the current state of chaos with covid and Brexit but I am interested to hear views that are different from my own.
There is no Barnett subsidy, it's another Westminster fallacy.

As it stands Scottish public sector revenues are collected by either the Scottish or UK government and sent to the UK treasury, revenue collected by the Scottish government is not retained in Scotland for its sole use. The current Barnett formula uses a fairly simple (on the face of it it's simple) calculation and is designed to allocate the same £ per person change PA to the devolved nations that is experienced by England. This amount is then applied to the base amount and awarded to Scotland as a block grant. However the hidden aspect of the formula is that it's designed to reduce the amount of annual spending overall in devolved nations in comparison to England. It doesn't allocate back to Scotland from the UK treasury the full amount that it gives the UK treasury; the block grant is not based on the needs of Scotland or indeed on the revenue raised in Scotland - it's a fiddle. if the full amount transferred to the UK was retained within Scotland we'd instantly be better off as a nation. For me this is why the Westminster government is so reluctant to lose Scotland from its grip, it would result in a net reduction of earnings to the UK (let's face it English) treasury.

My understanding is that the GERS figures are irrelevant as they are representative of a point in time (right now), are an estimate only and are not intended as a forecast. The major flaw in GERS is that if Scotland applied revenues in the same way as they are applied by the UK government then, as things stand right now, they would be a reasonable estimate of where Scotland would be right now. However in any different situation it's more than reasonable to assume that any other government would apply the revenue in an entirely different way. This can of course work two ways and finances could improve or could decline. There's no way of knowing what would happen and GERS figures are not an attempt to show what would or could happen in any other circumstances other than those prevailing now. So, an irrelevance in any process resulting in any degree of change.

I don't do politics and am not an economist but as I've said previously a great friend of mine, an Englishman for the record, who was a retired professor of economics at St. Andrews University was adamant that Scotland, Wales and NI would each be better off away from the union with Scotland positioned to be as wealthy as England if not more so. If a man like him is saying that I'm inclined to believe it.