Quote Originally Posted by BCram View Post
Dundee has 272 covid infections. The population is 144k so our rate per 100k is 272/1.44=189. The criteria for Tier 3 between 150 and 300 cases per 100,000 people
between 5% and 10% positive tests
very high probability of 300 cases per 100,000 in two weeks' time
the projection of hospital bed use in the health board in four weeks' time is greater than the health board's share of 2,000 beds nationally
the projection of ICU bed use in the health board in three weeks' time is greater than twice its normal capacity

I really want to understand what this all means. In particular I do not understand the difference between the very high probability of 300 cases per 100k in two weeks time and the projection in 4 weeks time for ICU bed use will be greater than than twice its normal capacity.

Does the figure of 189 per 100k work out at 189/100000x100=0.189%?
How is the range between 5-10%of positive tests applied?

I see that Perth transferred some of their ICU capacity to Dundee. How does that decision affect things?

I am fed up not understanding what is basically some simple arithmetic- can anyone help me?
The question is.
Have these so called ‘experts’ at Public Health Scotland and the Scottish Government included all the students in their calculations for the number of people living within the Dundee City Council area. I have previously read that there are 10,000 students living in flats and halls of residence in Dundee plus hundreds more St Andrews University students who live in Dundee and travel daily to St Andrews for their studies.
That is why there is an excellent bus service between Dundee and St Andrews.
Nicola Sturgeon and her special advisers (SPADS) are going to have to go back to the drawing board and calculate exactly how many people are currently living in Dundee as the current voters role plus children up to and including 15 years of age is no use.