OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[swaledale]

Actually it sort of does work in my book - if we can return to a pre Brexit condition on an economic issue, then that negates part of the negatives of Brexit for me. Consequently, on a net basis, the positives of avoiding an increasingly federal Europe "costs less" in economic terms

In theory, but in reality there is only so far we can get to and in the main its piffling (in economic terms) little things that are agreed. We won't for obvious reasons get the same economic deal we would ahve had by staying in the EU, or even remaining in the single market and customs union.

[Geoff Parkstone]

Individually piffling but collectively perhaps more meaningful. Don't forget we are playing a long game here, not expecting immediate payback

[ramAnag]

Individually piffling but collectively perhaps more meaningful. Don't forget we are playing a long game here, not expecting immediate payback

Not point scoring here, but how long a game, GP? The foreseeable future or the ‘not in our lifetime’ future?
Many on here will have experienced the more personal process of short term pain for long term gain...eg a mortgage, and I understand the concept of ‘not expecting immediate payback’...but the question of whether we’re talking about the ‘Boris’ bus’ payback as opposed to sometime around when current ten and eleven year olds are eligible for retirement is a valid...and I believe...unprecedented one.
As things are at the moment, and I do hope to debate constructively rather than just engage in animosity, I struggle to see anything other than disadvantage.

[Andy_Faber]

Not point scoring here, but how long a game, GP? The foreseeable future or the ‘not in our lifetime’ future?
Many on here will have experienced the more personal process of short term pain for long term gain...eg a mortgage, and I understand the concept of ‘not expecting immediate payback’...but the question of whether we’re talking about the ‘Boris’ bus’ payback as opposed to sometime around when current ten and eleven year olds are eligible for retirement is a valid...and I believe...unprecedented one.
As things are at the moment, and I do hope to debate constructively rather than just engage in animosity, I struggle to see anything other than disadvantage.

While GP is ruminating on that I’ll charge in with my hobnails and ask a question I was asked by a friend at (my) birthday party, amongst friends, so most of my friendship group had their say: ‘what difference have you noticed (key word) post Brexit? So, noticed, not read about or seen on TV

[ramAnag]

It’s difficult to extricate Brexit and Covid at the moment. I think we all have to accept that, but...

Shortages of certain fruits and vegetables, the impact of the HGV driver shortage on what used to be an excellent refuse collection service (and you and I falling out over it ) and anticipated (so not I accept yet ‘noticed’) likely complications concerning foreign travel.

Could you or any of your friendship group provide any positive examples?

P.S. Happy Birthday anyway...wasn’t that the big 60?

[Andy_Faber]

It’s difficult to extricate Brexit and Covid at the moment. I think we all have to accept that, but...

Shortages of certain fruits and vegetables, the impact of the HGV driver shortage on what used to be an excellent refuse collection service (and you and I falling out over it ) and anticipated (so not I accept yet ‘noticed’) likely complications concerning foreign travel.

Could you or any of your friendship group provide any positive examples?

P.S. Happy Birthday anyway...wasn’t that the big 60?

This wasn’t why I asked, but it seems you struggle to quantify Brexit impact to me to the same extent that I struggle to quantify minority overexposure in the media to you.

Yes, on balance my friendship group see more positives than negatives in Brexit. One, a specialist exporter, has seen a step change in the ease of doing business with China and Turkey, and two others working in NHS have seen a reduction in the pressure of dealing with Eastern Europeans who apparently a) aren’t very patient and b) insist on bringing the whole family in. In general I’m guessing the economic downside of Brexit will be hidden to some extent, with or without Covid

Edit thanks for the good wishes, yes 60 and a number of ‘restarts’ to my life, and I don’t think that was falling out, just finding more out about one another

[ramAnag]

This wasn’t why I asked, but it seems you struggle to quantify Brexit impact to me to the same extent that I struggle to quantify minority overexposure in the media to you.

Yes, on balance my friendship group see more positives than negatives in Brexit. One, a specialist exporter, has seen a step change in the ease of doing business with China and Turkey, and two others working in NHS have seen a reduction in the pressure of dealing with Eastern Europeans who apparently a) aren’t very patient and b) insist on bringing the whole family in. In general I’m guessing the economic downside of Brexit will be hidden to some extent, with or without Covid

Edit thanks for the good wishes, yes 60 and a number of ‘restarts’ to my life, and I don’t think that was falling, just finding more out about one another

Tbf you specifically asked for examples that I have, thus far, ‘noticed’...i.e. have had a direct impact upon me.
I could easily come up with 20-30 other examples that haven’t, to date, been especially personally noticeable...eg the NI situation...I know it exists but remain personally untouched by it.

Not sure Brexit and ‘minority exposure’ are actually comparable. The former is likely to have a huge impact on most of us. The latter is a largely nebulous concept which, for reasons I struggle to understand, represents one of your obsessions.

[Geoff Parkstone]

Not point scoring here, but how long a game, GP? The foreseeable future or the ‘not in our lifetime’ future?
Many on here will have experienced the more personal process of short term pain for long term gain...eg a mortgage, and I understand the concept of ‘not expecting immediate payback’...but the question of whether we’re talking about the ‘Boris’ bus’ payback as opposed to sometime around when current ten and eleven year olds are eligible for retirement is a valid...and I believe...unprecedented one.
As things are at the moment, and I do hope to debate constructively rather than just engage in animosity, I struggle to see anything other than disadvantage.

How long is a fair question. I'd say let it roll 5 years bedding in - it seemed to take a similar time to get adjusted to all the *******s of joining, so the infinitely more complex task of adjusting to leaving should maybe take the same time given the enhanced technology.

So after 5 years, lets reassess what we have lost, what we have recovered or adjusted to and indeed what economic positives may have emerged. Compare this to the positives of avoiding becoming part of the Borg.

There are those who talk of it taking a generation to see the positives - and indeed it might (although we might not see them personally) but I'm prepared to give it 5 years before drawing conclusions. i really dont give a **** about pre referendum hype and Boris bus etc - it people are stupid enough to fall for that stunt, then let them. Equally if people are prepared to believe the brexit doom mongers, same thing. I will judge based on what actually happens. not what the partisan opinion makers put out there.

As for Andy's "have you seen any differences" - my answer is that in a commercial environment I've seen new procedures needing to be followed, extra paperwork etc but nothing that cannot be assimilated in a shortish time frame. Personally my answer would be that Ive seen no difference at all - has Brexit actually happened? Life goes on as before (although Covid may be clouding the issue - were bog roll shortages due to Covid or Brexit?)

But my opinion is informed by personal experience, not the media reports which may be fallacious, scaremongering or just partisan. There might be **** happening out there, but it hasnt impacted my bubble yet. I havent seen rA's produce shortages at all, my bins are maybe emptied a day late, but nothing of substance. Oh, maybe I've noticed more English spoken in coffee shops!

As for foreign travel, I've not done any. For sure there are apocryphal tales of longer queues. So get there a bit earlier - like we used to do 15 years ago before tech shortened waiting times? Its not material in most people's lives, but I suspect it could piss off business travellers who do 20+ trips a year. But they should seriously think about the need to travel and the environmental cost of doing so much travel anyway, now Zoom etc has been shown to be an effective substitute.

So, in summary, just learn to roll with the changes, alter your lifestyle a little to accomodate the different procedures. Its not the end of the world. At "big picture" level, dont sweat it, you cannot alter it. Que sera, sera..... in 5 years we may see rampant inflation, mass unemployment and so on, and some of it may be due to Brexit - but Ive not seen it yet. Nascent inflation is down to the government trying to inflate their way our of Covid debt by and large, not all due to Brexit

[Trickytreesreds]

Folks forget to look at the EU for a good enough reason to escape, right now.
1. Germans not happy at the amount they have to pump in to prop up the poorer countries. This is exactly the internal bleeding of funds, the UK was fed up with, as it all Part of the FEDERAL PUSH FOR A EUSSR.
EU Parliament vice-president Katarina Barley, also a German MEP and member of the Social Democratic Party, said: “The European Commission should act immediately and block EU funds, especially in Hungary, but also in Poland.

2. See above. The EU telling you how to conduct the internal workings of your country. Be it law/Migrants/ trade/education.


3. The euro. The longer you stay in that pile, the more pressure to adopt it. Don't give me the "we don't have to join" crap. We will eventually if their dream is to be fulfilled. (As the Jocks will find out, if the paint your face blue fanatics win)
Valdes Dombrovskis, EU Commissioner for the Euro and Social Dialogue, told France 24 that all member states of the European Union have to join the Eurozone eventually.

He said: “That’s the ultimate goal. If you look at the Treaty, all member states excluding Denmark are actually obliged to join the Euro.

“There is no strict deadline associate do this, so members still can choose their pace, but ultimately all member states should be joining the Eurozone.”

The price is too high. In effect, you would surrendering control to the EU commission, who the populations cannot eject.
A lot of the EU countries are now realising this and the discontent is spreading.

I see all the counter arguments, as though the EU is forever. Obviously no one wants to even dare what will happen if crumbles.
The Mediterranean countries have really blossomed out of it haven't they?

To risky, thank you.
I'll take the pain and play the long game.

[ramAnag]

How long is a fair question. I'd say let it roll 5 years bedding in - it seemed to take a similar time to get adjusted to all the *******s of joining, so the infinitely more complex task of adjusting to leaving should maybe take the same time given the enhanced technology.

So after 5 years, lets reassess what we have lost, what we have recovered or adjusted to and indeed what economic positives may have emerged. Compare this to the positives of avoiding becoming part of the Borg.

There are those who talk of it taking a generation to see the positives - and indeed it might (although we might not see them personally) but I'm prepared to give it 5 years before drawing conclusions. i really dont give a **** about pre referendum hype and Boris bus etc - it people are stupid enough to fall for that stunt, then let them. Equally if people are prepared to believe the brexit doom mongers, same thing. I will judge based on what actually happens. not what the partisan opinion makers put out there.

As for Andy's "have you seen any differences" - my answer is that in a commercial environment I've seen new procedures needing to be followed, extra paperwork etc but nothing that cannot be assimilated in a shortish time frame. Personally my answer would be that Ive seen no difference at all - has Brexit actually happened? Life goes on as before (although Covid may be clouding the issue - were bog roll shortages due to Covid or Brexit?)

But my opinion is informed by personal experience, not the media reports which may be fallacious, scaremongering or just partisan. There might be **** happening out there, but it hasnt impacted my bubble yet. I havent seen rA's produce shortages at all, my bins are maybe emptied a day late, but nothing of substance. Oh, maybe I've noticed more English spoken in coffee shops!

As for foreign travel, I've not done any. For sure there are apocryphal tales of longer queues. So get there a bit earlier - like we used to do 15 years ago before tech shortened waiting times? Its not material in most people's lives, but I suspect it could piss off business travellers who do 20+ trips a year. But they should seriously think about the need to travel and the environmental cost of doing so much travel anyway, now Zoom etc has been shown to be an effective substitute.

So, in summary, just learn to roll with the changes, alter your lifestyle a little to accomodate the different procedures. Its not the end of the world. At "big picture" level, dont sweat it, you cannot alter it. Que sera, sera..... in 5 years we may see rampant inflation, mass unemployment and so on, and some of it may be due to Brexit - but Ive not seen it yet. Nascent inflation is down to the government trying to inflate their way our of Covid debt by and large, not all due to Brexit

Very ’Ramjetian’...and all the better for that.

Five years? Coincidentally about the same as the last change of ownership at DCFC then...or the approximate length of a Government’s term of office. Can we really afford that? You possibly...me perhaps? But the less fortunate who invariably pay the price?

‘If people are stupid enough to fall for that (Boris’ bus) stunt’. Isn’t that the point? I wasn’t...you weren’t. Same as we weren’t taken in by Farage’s refugee ‘advert’. Others sadly were...so are you not conceding that Brexit was, after all, a victory for liars over more gullible people?

Not equipped to comment on your ‘commercial environment’ observations and the bin thing is a bit of a bugbear. Up here we have four bins. One (food waste) emptied weekly and the other three emptied every other week. Well they were. Now they’re not bothering with one at all until September and we’ve been instructed to mix food waste in with one of the others. The reason given is a shortage of HGV drivers - originally blamed on Covid but more recently (whisper it to Andy) as a result of Brexit. Always assumed the need for four bins was environmentally based so there, presumably, is another ‘cost’.

I haven’t travelled abroad since about the same time as you. Take your point, although I’m not sure Zoom is an ‘effective substitute’, and more complex travel within Europe does seem another unavoidable and disadvantageous outcome.

‘Nascent inflation’...I know what it means but again don’t feel equipped to debate it, and I know Brexit isn’t ‘the end of the world’ but I’m struggling to think of any other change - major or more minor - that you’d allow five years before you judged it. Perhaps the whole point is that actually...with the support of enough reasonable (cross Party) people...you can alter it.