O/T:- Ukraine [Incorporating 'Congrats to Russia' thread]

[ForeignLegion]

Your last few words got it in one! Any book that tries to encapsulate global geo politics, is, by its very nature, too unwieldy.
Regards recommended books…I tend not to do that so to speak. Start with the areas historical progress and then move to political mechanics.
Eg (after just saying I prefer not to recommend books!) Nicholas Riasanovsky History of Russia. It’s a heavyweight piece. Can be found split into two volumes. Don’t get me wrong, not an easy read at probably 1k pages of chartered history, but Historical context is everything imo. Putin bases all his beliefs and chooses his method of governance based on historical trends. He’s neither a communist or a socialist. He’s a methodical thinker whose ideologies span more than one ‘movement.’

After getting through the above as a starting point, it’s easy to find branches to follow.

No different to the Middle East. My other ‘sphere’ of knowledge and interest so to speak. Many modern day decisions can be tied to historical context. From there it’s seeing how that spreads into modern governance.

Not meant to sound patronising at all to anyone, but the key to geo-politics is the ability to see both sides of the conversation, good, bad or ugly. For every decision, there is a counter decision. For every political move by Putin now, he has planned his counter moves in advance.
The Ukraines flirtation with NATO didn’t start a few months ago. It’s been in the making for 8 years or more. Russia has spent the last decade manoeuvring itself and its economy to work independently of Western interest or interference.

Cheers mate

[hissingdwarf]

Right. That’s me off to bed so no more pontificating!
Back to football tomorrow!

[Maggie's Farm]

what I'm hearing from Canadian political science and IA profs on podcasts and radio, is they don't think Putin's the great strategist everyone seems to want to make him out to be (although it makes it easier on Western politicians if he is described as such). yes, it looks like he's prepared for the economic sanctions the West predictably apply (cuz, what else is the EU gonna do?), but the invasion of Ukraine doesn't make a whole lot of sense on at least two major levels - a few ex-Soviet states are already Nato members, and there isn't oil or many other natural resources to plunder. (not to mention it makes Russia even more of a pariah state than they already are in sports, finance, and culture.)

I think he's more interested in blocking Liberal Democracy generally, but also bigging up his historical footprint. he wants to be the new Romanov who calls all the shots, the new expanionist Stalin:

“This war is not as in the past; whoever occupies a territory also imposes on it his own social system. Everyone imposes his own system as far as his army can reach. It cannot be otherwise. If now there is not a communist government in Paris, this is only because Russia has no an army which can reach Paris in 1945.”

I think he thinks his legacy is to Make Russia Great Again before he dies - [BIG FAT F*CKING SIGH!] - just wait for the red MPGA! caps.

I'm a conchy pacifist at heart, but one who knows peace is dizzy clubber who needs a f*ck off bouncer to protect her. I still believe this can only end in two ways:

1. the West bends over and takes it up the asperger's - while creating imaginative political nonsense verse to prove it's the best way. (aka, the Crimea response)

2. the sh!t hits the fan and 'the West' (some kind of alliance) is forced to get seriously physical to stop him moving on Lithuania or Finland or somewhere

my money is on a big stinky No.2 burger.

[BCnotts18]

what I'm hearing from Canadian political science and IA profs on podcasts and radio, is they don't think Putin's the great strategist everyone seems to want to make him out to be (although it makes it easier on Western politicians if he is described as such). yes, it looks like he's prepared for the economic sanctions the West predictably apply (cuz, what else is the EU gonna do?), but the invasion of Ukraine doesn't make a whole lot of sense on at least two major levels - a few ex-Soviet states are already Nato members, and there isn't oil or many other natural resources to plunder. (not to mention it makes Russia even more of a pariah state than they already are in sports, finance, and culture.)

I think he's more interested in blocking Liberal Democracy generally, but also bigging up his historical footprint. he wants to be the new Romanov who calls all the shots, the new expanionist Stalin:



I think he thinks his legacy is to Make Russia Great Again before he dies - [BIG FAT F*CKING SIGH!] - just wait for the red MPGA! caps.

I'm a conchy pacifist at heart, but one who knows peace is dizzy clubber who needs a f*ck off bouncer to protect her. I still believe this can only end in two ways:

1. the West bends over and takes it up the asperger's - while creating imaginative political nonsense verse to prove it's the best way. (aka, the Crimea response)

2. the sh!t hits the fan and 'the West' (some kind of alliance) is forced to get seriously physical to stop him moving on Lithuania or Finland or somewhere

my money is on a big stinky No.2 burger.

I can imagine the Russians will move on Moldova or Georgia next. They both have internal 'separatist' states already aligned with Russia which would provide the Russians with pretext for an invasion similar to the way it has with Ukraine. Neither are in NATO or are relevant enough for the West to care wholeheartedly about them too. Those aspects, coupled with Russia's desperate situation regarding their demographics leads me to believe that they will both be forced into the new Russian sphere of influence within the next decade.

[hissingdwarf]

Excellent article. Sums up perfectly how the West has misread Putin since he took over.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-i...ia-11645822427

[BanjoPie]

Right. That’s me off to bed so no more pontificating!
Back to football tomorrow!

Thanks for the great posts, extremely interesting and very well put. Cheers

[Maggie's Farm]

Excellent article. Sums up perfectly how the West has misread Putin since he took over.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-i...ia-11645822427

appreciate your notes here too, thanks. this one's behind a [murdoch pah!] paywall but title sounds clickable.

the Atlantic one was good as far as it went. i think he has unfettered power in Russia and sees an opening, an opportunity to take the west off balance and become another Stalin, or die trying

[hissingdwarf]

appreciate your notes here too, thanks. this one's behind a [murdoch pah!] paywall but title sounds clickable.

the Atlantic one was good as far as it went. i think he has unfettered power in Russia and sees an opening, an opportunity to take the west off balance and become another Stalin, or die trying

Apologies. Didn’t realise it was behind a paywall. I get it through Apple news.

[hissingdwarf]

Also worth pointing out, to those that are new to financial sanctions and such like that even though SWIFT removal of Russia would have an impact, it is, in reality, an instant messaging system from bank to bank. Obviously that's vastly over-simplifying the complex secure system, but it's easier to put it in that sort of context.
If Russia was removed from the SWIFT system, it would create issues, but it is debatable whether it would be 'that much of an issue' for Putin.
It would be for Russian citizens, (in the sense that financial institutions will be dragging their heels compared to current SWIFT membership) but the whole invasion will thrust many Russians closer to the poverty line.
Worth reiterating. Putin isn't a Communist nor a Socialist. He is a Capitalist based on Russian Oligarch principles. The Russian 'working class' will be paying for the invasion for many years to come, as will the Ukraine.

[jackal2]

Worth reiterating. Putin isn't a Communist nor a Socialist. He is a Capitalist based on Russian Oligarch principles. The Russian 'working class' will be paying for the invasion for many years to come, as will the Ukraine.

In one sense that's true, but of course we are talking about a former KGB officer and the 'utopia' in his mind that he is effectively trying to re-create is the old USSR - the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.

I don't think Putin's motivation is a politically-driven desire to advance capitalism, socialism or communism around the world. His motivation is to protect and extend his own power and impose his will on others, and he will say and do whatever he thinks is expedient to achieve that.

Narcissists/sociopaths/psychopaths will adopt whatever political shape suits them at any given time, and will often contradict themselves wildly, because ultimately it's just a means to an end, and that end is their own benefit.