Proof of progress?

[laddo]

I call it the 'Recruitment Rollercoaster'.

One month it's championed as being good, improved etc , the next and a defeat or two is labelled as poor and only a few players are considered upgrades from seasons past.

Tbh it applies to most topics from the Owners down to fringe players and everything in between#viva

[Elite_Pie]

You can check that yourself.
I thought it was a pretty fair paraphrasing. I think we're doing better statistically in what is a stronger league. And I think some of the critics thru this month forget how bad we were doing in long stretches in the previous two seasons.

We are doing better statistically in what is a stronger league at the top end, but a few other clubs are also doing better statistically, some of them better than us. As I said before, those points stats are a little skewed by the relegation fodder at the bottom. You have an escape clause because the thread title was posed as a question rather than a statement, but we will only see 'proof' or otherwise at the end of the season. As I also said before, after Saturday we have a favourable fixture list to prove the proof, so let's all hope we can do it.

[upthemaggies]

You can check that yourself.
I think we're doing better statistically in what is a stronger league..

If we can't keep up with other teams in our league, then we'll end up further behind and suffer the consequences. That is failure, not success.

As Liverpool manager Brendan Rodgers finished the 2013/14 season with 84 points and won nothing, Claudio Ranieri's Leicester finished the 2015/16 season with 81 points and got their Premier League champions medals.

I get the point you're trying to make but it just doesn't stand up to the nature of the competition. We might be better now than we were when we last in L2, but that isn't going to right that wrong and get us back into the FL. We're competing with other teams *this* season, not ourselves last season or the season before.

Still time of course to make a success of this season or at least do better than the previous two NL campaigns - be that finishing 2nd or reaching the play off final and turning up this time.

I don't want to put a downer on things when we've just had two great results. but I'm not buying that Notts are batter based on points one season to the next. It's position that matters - with the caveat that a successful play off campaign trumps the final position.

[the_anticlough]

We are doing better statistically in what is a stronger league at the top end, but a few other clubs are also doing better statistically, some of them better than us.

Points gained is in our control (and that looks like it will be our highest yet). League position isn't because we can't control what other teams do against each other.
If we do capitalise on the easy run in then we'll have had our best season of the three statistically. I guess that's good.

We've already failed though in a key objective - to compete for automatic promotion. Two or three other clubs can say they're still hanging in there. But we can't having lost 8 and drawn/lost as many games as we've won. This might be as valid a measure of progress as points won.
I dread all the false optimism of the play-offs. Even 2nd and 3rd will enter the play offs with about a 70% chance they won't be promoted. 4 and 5th with a 85% chance they won't be promoted. Of the teams near the top, only Stockport have reason to be pleased with themselves.

[Elite_Pie]

We've already failed though in a key objective - to compete for automatic promotion. Two or three other clubs can say they're still hanging in there. But we can't having lost 8 and drawn/lost as many games as we've won. This might be as valid a measure of progress as points won.

That I do agree with.

[countygump]

Notts are batter based.

Mmmm, batter based Magpie.

As for the other question, best left till the end of the season before judgement is made.

[jackal2]

I'm not sure that comparisons of precise points and placings tell us that much. Football results aren't determined by an algorithm where you input the exact value and quality of the player or manager and it tells you exactly where you'll finish. There are all sorts of variables that can affect your season positively or negatively, including the timing and number of postponements, injuries, weather conditions and good old fashioned luck. The ball might hit the inside of the post and give you a 1-0 win, or the outside of the post and give you a 0-0 draw or even a defeat. It's not an exact science, and if such factors go for or against you it could make or cost you a few points and places.

I think broadly speaking, having finished in the play-offs the past two seasons in 3rd and 5th place, missing the play-offs (i.e. 8th place at best) could be considered a moderately concerning regression, but if we finish in the play-offs again then I think it's fair to say we've had a similar outcome to the previous two years and then we'll find out if we're good enough to get promoted or still broadly on a par with where we were before.

[BigFatPie]

We’re a marginally better side than we were last season, but still miles away from auto promotion, and more than likely still the 4-5th best team in the division.

I’m not sure anything else matters tbh. I would put decent money on Stockport to piss League 2 next season, so there is that.

[uysapie]

I'm not sure that comparisons of precise points and placings tell us that much. Football results aren't determined by an algorithm where you input the exact value and quality of the player or manager and it tells you exactly where you'll finish. There are all sorts of variables that can affect your season positively or negatively, including the timing and number of postponements, injuries, weather conditions and good old fashioned luck. The ball might hit the inside of the post and give you a 1-0 win, or the outside of the post and give you a 0-0 draw or even a defeat. It's not an exact science, and if such factors go for or against you it could make or cost you a few points and places.

I think broadly speaking, having finished in the play-offs the past two seasons in 3rd and 5th place, missing the play-offs (i.e. 8th place at best) could be considered a moderately concerning regression, but if we finish in the play-offs again then I think it's fair to say we've had a similar outcome to the previous two years and then we'll find out if we're good enough to get promoted or still broadly on a par with where we were before.

If we are on a par, that would not be progress.

[laddo]

"Two or three other clubs can say they're still hanging in there" at a push! That's being very kind 10 points behind at this stage of the season, but I get your point.

To whether we finish 3rd,5th,6th or had finished 6th,5th,3rd in those orders it doesn't really bother me. To say either (on the pitch) is progress or regression as a headline statement is a bit sensationalist because its marginal. They are all playoff finishes, the only difference is the difficulty of the task is reduced the higher you finish.

If the league positions had been 3rd, 5th and 11th or vice versa well that's very different.

Obviously we are only talking league position here and not the club as a whole which I view more important in the long term.