O/T:- Ukraine [Incorporating 'Congrats to Russia' thread]

[andy6025]

Post 2 of 2

To me, ‘understanding’ the conflict isn’t about counting tanks or even troops. While that can have a place, the real questions for me are: how did we get here, and where does it go from here. Perhaps most importantly, how does it end?

In attempting to ‘understand’ it’s important to know why it’s happened. Western politicians, intelligence services, and our main stream media would have us believe that Vladimir Putin is an evil mastermind dictator with an iron grip on the helpless and hapless people of Russia, who thinks himself as Peter the Great and he’s bent on reforging the Soviet Union. After all, he’s well known for having said, “whoever doesn’t lament the disintegration of the Soviet Union doesn’t have a heart...”. But they leave out the rest of the quote: “whoever thinks it will come back doesn’t have a brain.”

So why did Russia invade Ukraine? Other than listening to Russia’s clearly stated objectives (which are rarely discussed in the media - but don’t bother looking for them because ‘everyone knows Putin’s a liar’), I refer you to the links I provided several posts ago. Among many other points are the fact that since the end of the Cold War the United States has acted as if it ‘winner take all’ in a unipolar world. America acts as if it has interests and Russia (or anybody else) supposedly has none. America has its ‘red lines’, but it does not respect those of other countries. Expanding NATO to Russia’s doorstep through various bipartisan administrations is one of Russia’s red lines America has ignored, and that includes both making Ukraine a de facto Dismantling nuclear, anti-missile defense, and verification arrangements is seen by Russians as a threat, no matter who sits in the captain’s chair in Moscow. Claiming to support democracy, while supporting the overthrow of a democratically elected government in Kiev by a street mob, not only contradicts what America self-professes to support, but is seen to be a threat to Russia’s national security. This coup, spearheaded in part by hard right wing nationalist now-nazis (and we know how much Russia feels threatened by Nazis) then went on to terrorize Ukraine’s vast ethnically Russian population in an 8-year civil war in the east. Despite signing agreements towards resolving the conflict, Kiev ignored it. Further, as the Swiss intelligence officer who worked for NATO in Ukraine, and who’s article I referenced above, observed - in the several months directly prior to Russia’s invasion, Ukraine were going heavily on the offensive in the Donbas. Some might even argue convincingly, as some have, that America together with their ‘partners’ in Ukraine, intended to goad Russia into invading in order to draw them into a quagmire that would not only weaken Russia, but draw the European economy away from cheap Russian energy and closer to the American economy and sphere of influence.

Given the context of these events in a struggle between a unipolar vs multipolar world, it’s disingenuous to talk about concepts like ‘sovereignty’, ‘democracy,’ ‘human rights’, etc., when America and its partners violate or support the violation of them (in both Ukraine and abroad) when it suits their strategic interests, but cry fowl when others appear to do the same. All of these countries (America, Russia and Ukraine included) each have their ‘interests’, and they either figure out how to accommodate one another’s, or they risk killing all of us in order to achieve them by force.

So, where’s it going to go from here? The Russians have taken large swaths of territory in Ukraine, almost all of which is predominantly ethnically Russian, and by any reasonable tally, would prefer to be part of the Russian Federation. In the last month, Ukraine backed by the West, has done a commendable job in retaking some of that territory. Recently, Russia moved to mobilize an additional 300k reservists, and has threatened to use any weapons at their disposal to protect their newly acquired territories. I’m no armchair general, but I suspect that Russia fully intends to make good on its word to do so, as well as accomplish its other objectives (Ukrainian neutrality, denazification, demilitarization, protection of the Donbas and other Russian areas of Ukraine, etc). I also suspect that, aside from Poland and the Baltic states, Europe’s will to continue supporting Ukraine is significantly less than that of the United States. How far is the US willing to go to weaken its geopolitical rivals? That I don’t know. Someone’s going to have to blink, and I could be wrong, but I don’t think it’ll be Russia.

The other sources I use are much harder to read and/or need a lot more filtering. What are your sources?

I already provided you with some sources. I dare guess that you didn’t bother to examine them. If you’re genuinely interested then start with them and we’ll build from there.

Yes they're called Dictatorships. Power is more centralised. And you will notice none of those regimes survived the death of the dictator. That's the nature of dictatorships.

As I’ve discussed, if America and its allies think they can ignore the interests of other powers, no matter their alleged forms of government, then they’re in for shocking results.

When Putin dies, the actual governmental model in Russia will undergo some changes. They may be for the better, or for the worse. However, whoever takes over will be in a position to back out of the war in a way Putin absolutely can't. He's cooked his own goose. s.

As I’ve suggested before, I think our media has done you an incredible disservice in informing you as to the political nature of Russia, both in its institutions and people. That means that even if Putin does die of cancer tomorrow, you’re not going to like what comes next.