O/T:- Ukraine [Incorporating 'Congrats to Russia' thread]

[Old_pie]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63573387

Russia's announced they're withdrawing from Kherson.

Might not be true. They don't always follow through on their announcements, but it would be unusually dim, even for Russia's military leadership, for people so high up to be announcing it if it's a lie.

You mean like "we're not planning to invade" with all these tanks on the border up to Feb 23rd?

Or is the withdrawal a mere repositioning? Can't see that the Ruskis want to be so publicly ceding ground. Maybe they are going to blow up the dam.

[Jampie]

You mean like "we're not planning to invade" with all these tanks on the border up to Feb 23rd?

Or is the withdrawal a mere repositioning? Can't see that the Ruskis want to be so publicly ceding ground. Maybe they are going to blow up the dam.

Indications are that the withdrawal is happening, but it seems to be going rather poorly for the Russians. Reports from both sides of thousands of troops trapped while the Ukrainians pound them with HIMARS etc. Oops.

The withdrawal does actually make sense, although it made sense by about April 17th, let alone today. I don't think it was viable for Russia to hold anything west of the river without full mobilisation a lot earlier, and for the past several months they've had enormous supply problems with both roads and railway over the bridge within HIMARS range and largely (but not completely) cut.

Trying to keep tens of thousands of troops with supporting vehicles and arty supplied with a few ferries and some dodgy dam crossings was idiotic and they're paying a heavy price for it now.

However, it does make strategic sense to pull out. Doing so shortens the front line a great deal (down to something like 500km, I haven't measured it in a while but it's around there), which Russia needs to do because they are now outnumbered by the Ukrainians who are now noticeably better equipped.

Once Dumbkirk is finished, Russia will have more troops on a shorter front and be better placed to hold onto their remaining stolen land, although I imagine the Ukrainians will continue to find weak points and attack there, as well as smash supply lines with longer range activities.

[Jampie]

Yes, seems like they’re withdrawing from the Kherson bridgehead. My understanding is that it’s too difficult to supply the troops across the Dneiper and that if the Ukrainians blow the dam it’ll be flooded in 10 feet of water.

Why would the Ukrainians blow up their own dam and flood their own population out?

Of course it might be a fib and Zalensky suspects it’s a trap, but I’ve heard some reports that the withdrawal has already started and that the AFU are letting the Russians withdraw unmolested. Supposedly, and it could all be BS, the Americans controlling the HIMARS brokered a deal with the Russians to let them leave in exchange for a reprieve in Russian strikes on Ukrainian electricity infrastructure and the AFU withdrawing from parts of Donetsk. And lastly that this might all be part of a brokered peace deal in the making.

Few things:

1. The Ukrainians are actively attacking and ensuring the Russians take severe losses in retreat, as they should.
2. Ukrainians are in control of their HIMARS units.
3. There is no deal whatsoever.
4. There are no peace talks, brokered or otherwise, going on at the moment.

While that’s hopeful news, I’m not about to count on it. Given that Hungary is holding up the release of EU money to Ukraine, possibly indefinitely, the Americans just denied Ukraine a pile of drones, and that the Republicans will likely control at least the House of Reps and may also turn off the money spigot, it doesn’t seem like the Russians will stop now.

If the Russpublicans manage to shut off direct aid (probably can't), Lend Lease will continue. Ukraine will be able to continue the war. Although the lack of a red wave and the timing of the withdrawal are an extraordinary coincidence, aren't they.

The west has carefully avoided supplying anything state of the art. No reason to risk the good stuff ending up in the hands of a semi competent military, like China's.

Meanwhile, the Russians apparently took control of a few towns in zaporizhzhia today, so that’d contradict the idea there’d be any deal at all.

This is almost certainly false. Gains in that region have been absolutely glacial, and it's likely the Russians will be throwing up a smokescreen to take the sting out of the massive failure they're suffering in Kherson right now, which you can pretty much guarantee is also their #1 priority until the withdrawal is complete.

[andy6025]

Why would the Ukrainians blow up their own dam and flood their own population out?

Oh dear, how embarrassing. I’m no military expert but this takes the cake.

Doing so would have trapped 20k+ Russian servicemen on the northwest bank of the Dnieper with no possibility of resupply whatsoever. They’d have all been either killed or captured.

Few things:

1. The Ukrainians are actively attacking and ensuring the Russians take severe losses in retreat, as they should.
2. Ukrainians are in control of their HIMARS units.
3. There is no deal whatsoever.
4. There are no peace talks, brokered or otherwise, going on at the moment.

Actually the telegram channels aren’t corroborating your claims that Russia is taking any losses in their withdrawal from Kherson, let alone “severe losses.” Not only is the region heavily mined and road blocked but the Ukrainians forces are still sceptical as to whether or not it’s a trap. Sorry Jampie, but I think you are once again forging your own unique image of what’s going on that differs from either the Russian or Ukrainian narrative. I think I’ll start calling it the Jamside Story.

As for deals and negotiations, the Ukrainian telegram channels also claim otherwise to the Jamside Story, but I am likewise sceptical that any agreement will be made soon. While I can see the Ukrainian/US/EU side being rather elated as to the rumoured deal in the making, I don’t see the Russian side accepting it. I’d guess that there are talks, but other than on a few minor issues, I doubt Russia is yet satisfied that their objectives have been completed, particularly on neutrality and demilitarization which I haven’t heard anything about as part of the alleged negotiations. Hopefully I’m wrong though.

If the Russpublicans manage to shut off direct aid (probably can't), Lend Lease will continue. Ukraine will be able to continue the war. Although the lack of a red wave and the timing of the withdrawal are an extraordinary coincidence, aren't they.

IF the “Russpiblicans” take the house of reps, as projected, then they can certainly turn off the money spigot if they so desire. And we already know well that the republicans love to grind the government to a halt just to play contrarians to the dems. They’ll say the sky is orange if the dems say it’s blue. So there’s a very real possibility that Zalensky will get hung out to dry. On the other hand the yank MIC has been very clever to diversify its production capacity to every state of the union, and what republican doesn’t like committing large chunks of the budget to their friends in the MIC? We’ll just have to wait and see here. Anyone claiming to know with certainty which way this issue will go is talking out of their backside.

This is almost certainly false. Gains in that region have been absolutely glacial, and it's likely the Russians will be throwing up a smokescreen to take the sting out of the massive failure they're suffering in Kherson right now, which you can pretty much guarantee is also their #1 priority until the withdrawal is complete.

Again, both Ukrainian and Russian telegram channels differ greatly from the Jamside Story. When all is said and done, you should write a book on how this war went. It’ll be like one of those Quintin Terrentino movies where he rewrites history from a fantasy perspective, like the jews blowing up Hitler in a theatre, or Roman Polanski beating up Charles Manson.

Oh, and apparently the withdrawal from Kherson was completed this morning.

[BanjoPie]

Fu*k the Russians and anyone that supports them!!!! - especially 6025

[Jampie]

Ok Andy, show me the evidence of the "Deal"?

You can attempt ridicule all you want but you've been cheerleading Russia, war crimes and all, in this war for months, denying that they're losing, denying any evidence they've been taking significant losses and this time they've made a fool of you by fleeing from "annexed" "Russian" territory.

By all means feel free to flail about with Kremlin lies or whatever. You can't talk your way out of a defeat this enormous.

[i961pie]

Fu*k the Russians and anyone that supports them!!!! - especially 6025

Ditto

[andy6025]

Ok Andy, show me the evidence of the "Deal"?

You can attempt ridicule all you want but you've been cheerleading Russia, war crimes and all, in this war for months, denying that they're losing, denying any evidence they've been taking significant losses and this time they've made a fool of you by fleeing from "annexed" "Russian" territory.

By all means feel free to flail about with Kremlin lies or whatever. You can't talk your way out of a defeat this enormous.

I didn’t say there was a deal. I actually said, “I am likewise sceptical that any agreement will be made soon.”

I did say, however, that there are “rumours” of negotiations towards a deal in the telegram channels but thus far they remain exactly that - just rumours. They actually originated on the pro-Ukrainian channels, so I guess what you might mean is “**** Kiev propaganda!” These “rumours” concern the withdrawal of Russian troops from the northwest bank of the Dnieper in Kherson, the withdrawal of the AFU from near Donetsk city, Bakhmut and some other regions, supply to Ukraine of electricity from the ZNPP, funds from both the US and from confiscated/frozen Russian reserves for the rebuilding/restoration of Ukraine, and other things of the like. These rumours were received more optimistically in the pro-Ukrainian telegram channels, where they originated, but were mostly seen as hogwash or with derision in the pro-Russian channels.

While I have no idea as to their validity and as I said, “I am likewise sceptical that any agreement will be made soon”, I am always hopeful of any signs of a peaceful settlement on whatever terms both sides can agree to. I say the latter because without mutual agreement, it’s extremely unlikely there could be any lasting peace. Others however, including some in here, are perfectly willing to sacrifice as many Ukrainian lives as it takes in order to “Fu#* Russia and anyone who supports them.” Such a viewpoint would be comical if it weren’t so self-defeating.

[andy6025]

Fu*k the Russians and anyone that supports them!!!! - especially 6025

Uh, ok. Fu*k you too I guess?

What’s next, are we supposed to meet up in Tarker’s scary Mexican car park after school?

[Soccerman166]

Ditto

Double ditto.