O/T:- Ukraine [Incorporating 'Congrats to Russia' thread]

[Jampie]

It's a bit early and I don't like commenting with minimal info, but given there's a lot of piffle flying around I will make the following observations:

1. The crater in Poland is WAY too big to be from a small air defence missile
2. I think it's too big even for an S-300 ground strike
3. I would not expect Ukraine to be using an S-300 this far west anyway - they need them covering the front
4. The impact site in Poland has the approximate Latiude of Kyiv and the approximate Longitude of Lviv
5. Most likely it's a Russian cruise missile and some exhausted Russian officer buttoned in target coordinates half from one target and half from another on the next line in his list
6. If not, extraordinary coincidence, but stranger things have happened in wars

[drillerpie]

Russia is bang to rights for so many terrible things during this war, blaming them for this if it turns out not be their fault would detract from all that, so I think we should be careful here.

Most people acknowledge that if it was Russia it most likely wouldn't have been deliberate as bringing NATO into the war would mean instant crushing defeat so would be counter productive.

It could be a 'grey area' attack with plausible deniability, something they like doing, and on their state television talk shows they like to fantasise about starting wars with NATO, but I think that is just to distract from their defeats and satisfy the bloodlust of their audience.

It'll all come out in the next few days.

[andy6025]

Jampie, will reply to your ‘knowledgeable’ predictions later when I have more time.

As for the breaking news... it seems that Ukrainian missile defence successfully intercepted a Polish tractor.

[i961pie]

Over Ukraine, by pro Russian Ukrainians? And of course the Dutch investigation team couldn’t have been wrong? Like any investigation whereby folk have been wrongfully convicted. Errors will always occur as humans are involved.

I hope you aren't comparing a jury consisting of a butcher, a baker and a candlestick maker etc. with expert aircrash investigators???

[i961pie]

Russia is bang to rights for so many terrible things during this war, blaming them for this if it turns out not be their fault would detract from all that, so I think we should be careful here.

Most people acknowledge that if it was Russia it most likely wouldn't have been deliberate as bringing NATO into the war would mean instant crushing defeat so would be counter productive.

It could be a 'grey area' attack with plausible deniability, something they like doing, and on their state television talk shows they like to fantasise about starting wars with NATO, but I think that is just to distract from their defeats and satisfy the bloodlust of their audience.

It'll all come out in the next few days.

This

[Notts78]

It's a bit early and I don't like commenting with minimal info, but given there's a lot of piffle flying around I will make the following observations:

1. The crater in Poland is WAY too big to be from a small air defence missile
2. I think it's too big even for an S-300 ground strike
3. I would not expect Ukraine to be using an S-300 this far west anyway - they need them covering the front
4. The impact site in Poland has the approximate Latiude of Kyiv and the approximate Longitude of Lviv
5. Most likely it's a Russian cruise missile and some exhausted Russian officer buttoned in target coordinates half from one target and half from another on the next line in his list
6. If not, extraordinary coincidence, but stranger things have happened in wars

You need to stay off the drugs mate.

[Notts78]

I hope you aren't comparing a jury consisting of a butcher, a baker and a candlestick maker etc. with expert aircrash investigators???

No. I am comparing the information provided as fact to said people and them falling for it hook, line and sinker.

Nice swerve on the fact that ‘the plane’ you mentioned being shot down by Russia, was in fact Ukrainians.

This morning there doesn’t seem to be much condemnation of Russia over the fatalities in Poland as that avenue seems unlikely. Russia needs to be accountable for anything that it has done, in time it will be. This incident isn’t one of those occasions it seems.

[Old_pie]

Russia is bang to rights for so many terrible things during this war, blaming them for this if it turns out not be their fault would detract from all that, so I think we should be careful here.

Most people acknowledge that if it was Russia it most likely wouldn't have been deliberate as bringing NATO into the war would mean instant crushing defeat so would be counter productive.

It could be a 'grey area' attack with plausible deniability, something they like doing, and on their state television talk shows they like to fantasise about starting wars with NATO, but I think that is just to distract from their defeats and satisfy the bloodlust of their audience.

It'll all come out in the next few days.

Russia could just be testing the West's/Nato's reaction to a blurred event. Like cutting pipelines or shooting down MH17.

The Ukraine "Nazis" are desperately trying to save their civilians from a barrage of indiscriminate missiles and may have shot a defence missile in the wrong direction.

Biden seems to be backing off the Russian missile theory. A part of me would have liked to have woken up this morning to learn that Russia had been obliterated - but I can still see the sun.

[Old_pie]

Jampie, will reply to your ‘knowledgeable’ predictions later when I have more time.

As for the breaking news... it seems that Ukrainian missile defence successfully intercepted a Polish tractor.

Are you cheering each Russian missile strike as we would cheer a Langstaff goal?

[Jampie]

Probably also worth noting that an air defence missile used in its air defence role is supposed to detonate on or near its target (in the air), or after a miss. They are absolutely not supposed to crash into the ground and detonate their warhead. For that to happen the missile either needs to malfunction or be configured in ground attack mode.

Of course a misconfiguration by Ukrainian operators is possible, and so is a malfunction. I have no conclusive information as yet.

I'm just saying though, if it was a Ukrainian missile, that's a lot of coincidences.