Matchday thread: Derby v Fleetwood

[swaledale]

I’ll accept that my knowledge of ‘how football finances work’ is far from complete, Swale...but it’s not ‘simplistic’.

We’re not really saying anything very different.
All I’ve suggested is that, IF results under Warne don’t improve, then Clowes is wealthy enough to say ‘enough is enough’ and draw a line under things in the best interest of the club he clearly loves.
You have agreed to the extent that you’ve put an additional time frame on it and said ‘if Derby are bottom third by December there may well be a decision to be made’. I didn’t provide a time factor...but I agree.

At the moment we’re in the position of having taken just 18 of the last 48 points on offer. That’s pretty dreadful by any standards. Some will say it wasn’t HIS team, but that’s virtually always the case with any manager who joins during, rather than prior to, the season. Others will say, the new signings need to get to know one another, which is of course true but as yet there has been no improvement...while others, unrealistically imo, already just want him gone.

So yes...managers do need time, owners seldom benefit from making knee jerk reactions and fans can be fickle...although 55,000 for our opening two matches would suggest not that fickle...but I have never suggested that DC should put his own ‘personal financial situation’ at risk. What I’ve said is that he has sufficient resources to be able to get rid of an underachieving manager IF that’s what it comes to...it’s obviously not that ‘simplistic’ because you’ve agreed...with the additional provisos that we may have to wait until either December or a time when ‘Derby’s status in this league is threatened’. Not wishing to be ‘simplistic’ but don’t you think that, by the time of that second scenario, it might just be too late?

You have missed the crucial point, which is whatever Clowes personal wealth, its not relevant as to whether he sacks the manager, because that will come out of the clubs overall budget, he won't and actually cannot simply bung in a million or thereabouts to pay Warne and his staff off.

So your assertion that Clowes has enough resources to be able to get rid of an underachieving manager maybe true in fact, but cannot happen under the financial fair play rules. Any compensation payment would come out of the existing budget, a million or a few hundred thousand spent on compensation would basically mean that much less in the overall budget for the rest of the season.

Too late? What if Derby are in the bottom third of the league? I'm not suggesting no action if Derby don't win another game until December, then the hand might be forced. Well, lets put it this way, Forest kept the faith with Cooper last season when all looked lost, it worked out for them, why shouldn't it work out for Derby?

I don't think we are saying the same thing, your starting to imply the club should be thinking about Warne's future now, 3 games in and suggested that would be the case even if we were mid table. I'm not and can only see such a scenario happening if results don't improve and we sink towards the bottom of the league. I gave two reasons.

1. Sacking Warne and his backroom staff would be expensive
2. Clowes and the Board will be prepared to give Warne the chance to turn things around.

Obviously if he doesn't manage that and matters don't improve then there will be a decision to be made, when or if that is deemed necessary depends entirely on results

[Andy_Faber]

We might all be having a moan, and if PW was on 50k a year he’d be gone with a few more bad results, but he isn’t and we HAVE to avoid the errors of the past so IMO we are stuck with him though thick or thin. One thing that’s pissing me off though is criticism, however light, of mr Clowes, without whom we would bitching about stuff on the Mickleover Sports message board. In Clowes I still very much trust

[swaledale]

We might all be having a moan, and if PW was on 50k a year he’d be gone with a few more bad results, but he isn’t and we HAVE to avoid the errors of the past so IMO we are stuck with him though thick or thin. One thing that’s pissing me off though is criticism, however light, of mr Clowes, without whom we would bitching about stuff on the Mickleover Sports message board. In Clowes I still very much trust

Criticism of Warne is justified at the moment, no doubt about that, based on where we are and his record from last season. Talk of sacking him at this moment of time is ridiculous, comparison with what Rosenior may or may not have done is pointless, we are where we are.

Talk that Clowes has the resources to effect a change is disingenuous IMO, to date he has managed his ownership well, hasn't made any rash promises and I ahve every confidence he will continue to prove a good owner, fans have short memories, it was a continuous churn in managers and wasting millions on players that got us in to this mess.

Nobody can provide a guarantee as to how a manager and players will perform, even the best strategies can come unstuck for many reasons, but please lets give stability a chance and accept that despite the unexpected performance last season, we are still in the rebuilding and stabilisation stage.

[ramAnag]

You have missed the crucial point, which is whatever Clowes personal wealth, its not relevant as to whether he sacks the manager, because that will come out of the clubs overall budget, he won't and actually cannot simply bung in a million or thereabouts to pay Warne and his staff off.

So your assertion that Clowes has enough resources to be able to get rid of an underachieving manager maybe true in fact, but cannot happen under the financial fair play rules. Any compensation payment would come out of the existing budget, a million or a few hundred thousand spent on compensation would basically mean that much less in the overall budget for the rest of the season.

Too late? What if Derby are in the bottom third of the league? I'm not suggesting no action if Derby don't win another game until December, then the hand might be forced. Well, lets put it this way, Forest kept the faith with Cooper last season when all looked lost, it worked out for them, why shouldn't it work out for Derby?

I don't think we are saying the same thing, your starting to imply the club should be thinking about Warne's future now, 3 games in and suggested that would be the case even if we were mid table. I'm not and can only see such a scenario happening if results don't improve and we sink towards the bottom of the league. I gave two reasons.

1. Sacking Warne and his backroom staff would be expensive
2. Clowes and the Board will be prepared to give Warne the chance to turn things around.

Obviously if he doesn't manage that and matters don't improve then there will be a decision to be made, when or if that is deemed necessary depends entirely on results

Sorry Swale but there seems to be some confusion.

I understand completely that, in your words, ‘a million or a few hundred thousand spent on compensation would basically mean that much less in the overall budget for the rest of the season’.

What I’m saying is that if things continue as they are, and I’m not talking first 3 or 4 matches of the season...I’m talking the last four consecutive (football) months...then Mr. Clowes may have to bite the bullet and think again.

What you’re saying is that, again in your own words, you ‘can only see such a scenario happening if results don’t improve and we sink towards the bottom of the league.’

Those are your exact words. The difference is minuscule and you actually accept my suggestion that, if things don’t improve or get even worse then, again in your exact words, ‘the hand may be forced’ and ‘there will be a decision to be made’.

The rest is just frankly a bit of a ramble. ‘Sacking Warne and his backroom staff would be expensive’ and what will be ‘deemed necessary depends entirely on results’ is simply stating the obvious, and as regards your comparison with Cooper a couple of seasons ago...it’d be lovely if it happens, but such turnarounds are rare and if you’re wondering ‘why shouldn’t it work out for Derby’ then perhaps, I wouldn’t know, you haven’t seen much of them recently.

I’ve seen them three times this season...for half an hour, against Stoke, we looked excellent. Against Wigan doubts began to surface. I didn’t go to the Blackpool match, but the Oxford game was as bad as it gets (hopefully)...we were out fought, out played and out managed with a team that looked rudderless, disorganised and demoralised long before the end. You can make excuses if it’s just the opening games of the season scenario, but this comes on top of three very disappointing months at the close of last season so, while I completely share AF’s respect for and belief in DC, my trust in Warne is beginning to wane. I very much hope the turn around starts on Saturday against Fleetwood but, in what as you rightly describe as a results driven business, on the evidence to date I have my doubts.

[swaledale]

Sorry Swale but there seems to be some confusion.

I understand completely that, in your words, ‘a million or a few hundred thousand spent on compensation would basically mean that much less in the overall budget for the rest of the season’.

What I’m saying is that if things continue as they are, and I’m not talking first 3 or 4 matches of the season...I’m talking the last four consecutive (football) months...then Mr. Clowes may have to bite the bullet and think again.

What you’re saying is that, again in your own words, you ‘can only see such a scenario happening if results don’t improve and we sink towards the bottom of the league.’

Those are your exact words. The difference is minuscule and you actually accept my suggestion that, if things don’t improve or get even worse then, again in your exact words, ‘the hand may be forced’ and ‘there will be a decision to be made’.

The rest is just frankly a bit of a ramble. ‘Sacking Warne and his backroom staff would be expensive’ and what will be ‘deemed necessary depends entirely on results’ is simply stating the obvious, and as regards your comparison with Cooper a couple of seasons ago...it’d be lovely if it happens, but such turnarounds are rare and if you’re wondering ‘why shouldn’t it work out for Derby’ then perhaps, I wouldn’t know, you haven’t seen much of them recently.

I’ve seen them three times this season...for half an hour, against Stoke, we looked excellent. Against Wigan doubts began to surface. I didn’t go to the Blackpool match, but the Oxford game was as bad as it gets (hopefully)...we were out fought, out played and out managed with a team that looked rudderless, disorganised and demoralised long before the end. You can make excuses if it’s just the opening games of the season scenario, but this comes on top of three very disappointing months at the close of last season so, while I completely share AF’s respect for and belief in DC, my trust in Warne is beginning to wane. I very much hope the turn around starts on Saturday against Fleetwood but, in what as you rightly describe as a results driven business, on the evidence to date I have my doubts.

Point of fact Cooper was last season, when Forest looked dead certain to be relegated from the prem, but Forest stuck with him and they stayed up. The reason we don't see it often is because Managers are rarely afforded the opportunity. Its especially bizarre in newly promoted clubs, because the odds are they will struggle.

rA, I envisage as I've said many times before that unless Derby's status in League 1 is threatened then I don't see Warne being sacked.

You have been criticising Warne since before the start of the season, claiming he can't attract the right players and made inferences that we would have been better to stick with Rosenior. I haven't and still don't think its time to talk about sacking Warne, yes results have been less than average, but my view is that he should be given time to get things right and I believe that is what he will get.

As for whether if results don't improve then things may change, thats obviously a possibility, but at the moment, despite whats currently happening I'm not in that frame of mind. it takes time to build a squad that performs at the top level, Warne should be given that time.

Where I think we differ is that you would want to see a change if we fall away from promotion, whereas I don't see a change unless we are bottom half come November/December.

[ramAnag]

Where I think we differ is that you would want to see a change if we fall away from promotion, whereas I don't see a change unless we are bottom half come November/December.

As I said...a minuscule difference...and I wouldn’t ‘want to see a change if we fall away from promotion’ but I do want to see some progress, something I’ve seen precious little of in recent times.

As regards the Forest comparison. You’re right. Last season was when the owner reacted by seeming to buy all available players. I was thinking of their promotion season (21/22) when I think they had to wait till their 7th or 8th game for their first win. If memory serves it cost Hughton his job and brought Cooper to the club.