Putin says he won't go for Kiev but obviously no can believe a word he says. NATO need to urgently upscale their deliveries of both ammunition and hardware because if Putin senses he capitalize on the combination of faltering Western aid and growing fatigue in Ukrainian ground forces then he surely will. Western military aid is urgently needed to prevent Putin even considering trying to push further westwards.

Ultimately, however, I do not believe that either Putin (despite his rhetoric) or NATO would want any escalation that might lead to a direct conflict between them. Unfortunately, this then means that any eventual end to the war in Ukraine is likely to mean that Russia ends up gaining the eastern territories as I cannot realistically see Ukraine having the manpower to beat them back regardless of any Western hardware they get. The supply of latest generation fighters might help to establish air superiority for them but I cannot see anyone supplying them with these and NATO troops on the ground is not going to happen. Supplying Ukraine with weapons to give them the capability to more effectively attack targets in Russia is another option that might help turn the Russian populace against Putin's war but it's a gamble and one not likely to be seriously considered by Western nations.

Bordering NATO countries are clearly worried and already building up their military capabilities to deter Putin from further expansion but sadly difficult to see Ukraine achieving its aims here. Ultimately, Putin would be happy with the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions and retaining the Crimea as he could sell this to the Russian people as a victory. He doesn't need complete victory. Western sanctions will still hurt and Russia may remain a pariah state but it won't really bother him. The only thing that will concern him is the increased presence of NATO forces on his borders but his own actions have led to this and there is nothing he can do about it.

As for Ukraine, the country will surely reach a point when it has lost too many lives and too much of its infrastructure is destroyed. Fatigue for the meat-grinder attrition of the war will then likely lead to many Ukrainians accepting the loss of its eastern territories in exchange for an end to the war and a chance to rebuild what they have. May even be that Ukraine is then allowed to become a NATO member as part of any settlement deal which would p iss Putin off but be necessary for Ukraine to feel safe from further aggression. It's far from morally right but pragmatic.

Short of direct confrontation between NATO forces and Russia, I cannot see any other end to this. Time is something Putin still has as he simply has the numbers of men and hardware to keep throwing into his war and his propaganda machine and autocratic control at home mean that, unlike Afghanistan, the mounting losses are not yet sufficient for ordinary Russians to turn against him. For Ukraine though, time is running out.

Having said all this, I still believe that continued supply of arms and ammunition to Ukraine is essential as to not do so would only encourage Putin to expand his aims beyond control of Crimea and the eastern regions. Just hope karma catches up with him soon!