O/T Lotto

[Heliosphan]

Some 'systems' will increase your chances if you are a subscriber to conventional probability theory, but the increases are absolutely miniscule.

Can you outline the basic premise of a system that will increase my chances of winning, however miniscule?

[UlleyMiller]

Can you outline the basic premise of a system that will increase my chances of winning, however miniscule?

By applying the underpinning themes in probability theory led by the Bernoulli school of thought. For example, it would be more likely to have a broadly even split of odds and evens, the average value of the six numbers would equate to an EV (30 I think).

Utterly useless in the face of the numbers involved, but tiny, tiny gains IF you subscribe to Bernoulli's laws.

[Heliosphan]

By applying the underpinning themes in probability theory led by the Bernoulli school of thought. For example, it would be more likely to have a broadly even split of odds and evens, the average value of the six numbers would equate to an EV (30 I think).

Utterly useless in the face of the numbers involved, but tiny, tiny gains IF you subscribe to Bernoulli's laws.

It's not something I'm remotely familiar with. But given your example, no merit in it whatsoever, certainly from a Lotto perspective.

[UlleyMiller]

It's not something I'm remotely familiar with. But given your example, no merit in it whatsoever, certainly from a Lotto perspective.

Again, not without merit, the maths works. It just points at the fact the gains you can expect by deploying any sort of system are not going to impact the outcomes in a way 99.9999% of players would be interested in.

If you have three balls, 1 to 3, you'd assume an odd number is more likely than even in a fair draw. The numbers are 1 to 59, so your first pick should be odd. Once you've done that, it's an even split so pick any number. For the third pick you go with whichever has the highest remaining (odd or even), and so on. That's the principles of Bernoulli's probability work that are the basis for most of what gets taught in schools. I've quickly checked a download of the last 6 months of draws, and 39% give a 3 odd, 3 even outcome (4 and 2 split either way is 37%, 20% for 5 and 1, and only 4% for only odd or only even), so at a cursory glance that would steer me in that direction, or at least to avoid heavily weighted against odd or even.

Other considerations would be the likely outcome (using the 1 to 3 example, you'd assume the average of the picks over time would be 2, so apply that logic to the 1 to 59 range), to maximise your winnings by avoiding commonly played numbers (there may be sources online, but limiting things like birthdays would seem logical).

Chiefly though, discount the law of averages logic, because it's utterly flawed, and quietly works on the basis that the lottery will only ever play through all the possible combinations once before shutting down - and that's wrong on a few fronts. Probability will help you a little, but only in the same way that a thimble of water will help you put out a bonfire.