Quote Originally Posted by Eternal Optimist View Post
Funnily enough, since 1955 the highest ever increase in excess deaths was 4.9%. You seem quite content that in 2022 this increased to 10%.

Here's the actual situation.

https://www.excessdeathstats.com/nz/
Only a little thought is required to debunk this particular site:

1. The obvious warning sign is that the statistical analysis upon which the website relies appears to have been conducted by a retired engineer. I have absolutely nothing against engineers – either retired or otherwise - I wish that their value received greater recogntion in the UK - but is he qualified to undertake a complicated statistical analysis? It’s a bit like relying upon a chiropodist to undertake dental work.

2. The website contains that the assertion that adjusting excess death data to take account of the increasing age of the population should be disregarded because a population doesn’t age dramatically in one year compared to the year before unless there has been a sudden influx of old people.

The point is that the age of a population increases in a predictable fashion in a matter that is well understood through the use of actuarial methods. Being older means being more likely to die in any given year, with there being marked year on year effect after the age of 65 or so:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...dom-uk-by-age/

Failing to take ageing into account in making excess death calculations will inevitably distort the outcome, particularly in a country with an aging population like NZ (or the UK). It will inevitably have added to the excess deaths in NZ.

3. The article conflates the death rate with excess deaths (as do you in your post).

4. The analysis totally ignores the effect of lifting covid restrictions on illnesses other than covid. Lockdowns and border closure would have hampered the spread of other illnesses and in particular the ‘flu, which is a major killer of the elderly (it is well known that flu deaths dropped massively in locked down countries). That would have the obvious effect of preventing the deaths of people who are at risk from ‘flu during the time of restrictions and the less obvious effect of allowing acquired immunity to wane. When lockdowns were lifted and the ‘flu was allowed to spread as it normally would it spread into a population that was more at risk from it as a consequence.

I could go on, but I am boring myself. I am trying to be kind, but the website is bolox and, with respect, if you are sheepishly accepting it as ‘the actual situation’ without applying any critical thinking to it you are going to go badly wrong.

And of course, nothing within the article explains why the excess deaths that antivaxxers claim to be attributable to the covid vaccines did not appear in 2021 – a year in which 90% of the NZ population received two doses - and why they only took off in 2022 when the country lifted its restrictions.