OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[Geoff Parkstone]

So the market crashed the day after ",out" but not just against the euro - so it was as much a refection of £ weakness as relative Euro strength. In the next few years before Brexit day the currencies were volatile but inconsistent. Since B Day it's interesting how the £ has held its own despite dire warnings of economic plight resulting. Was the steam taken out of the markets on that fatal day and those leveraging currencies have since been neutral?

I'd say the parity over the last 5 years is a reflection that the consequences of Brexit may not have been as bad as many on here predicted. Maybe the Eurozone itself is equally weak and suffering from the same fundamental flaws as Team GB? But if both are piss poor, why hasn't the dollar stormed ahead?

I don't know the answers but the option of others being as bad as us does emerge as likely. Yet global stock markets are in good shape despite the Truss effect 2 years ago and as inflation calms and interest rates abate, things look positive-ish

But the whole things a big Ponzi scheme....waiting to collapse, letting the Chinese in

[ramAnag]

Some facts:

The highest the £ has ever been against the € was €1.75 in May 2000.

The lowest the £ has ever been against the € was €1.02 in Dec. 2008 thanks to the banking crisis.

The average since the creation of the Euro 25 years ago has been €1.31.

The £ dropped by 6% against the € on Brexit day and by 16% in the four months following Brexit.

The £ has, as Sith originally and correctly said, never recovered to its immediate pre Brexit level of €1.30.

(Source…Key Currency.)

Make of this what you will.

[Geoff Parkstone]

By pre Brexit level you mean the day before the referendum, followed by the results crash. My observation was between the effective date of Brexit (31/1/20) and today the rate hasn't shifted. These two phenomenon are not mutually exclusive and can meaningfully coexist - and do.

To my mind the shock and awe of the decision whacked the rate BUT but the reality of Brexit having taken place some years later has had no impact. Which is a surprise

[SithHappens]

To my mind the shock and awe of the decision whacked the rate BUT but the reality of Brexit having taken place some years later has had no impact. Which is a surprise

No the damage was done. if you put a nail in a tyre it goes flat, put another one in it don't go any flatter

[ramAnag]

By pre Brexit level you mean the day before the referendum, followed by the results crash. My observation was between the effective date of Brexit (31/1/20) and today the rate hasn't shifted. These two phenomenon are not mutually exclusive and can meaningfully coexist - and do.

To my mind the shock and awe of the decision whacked the rate BUT but the reality of Brexit having taken place some years later has had no impact. Which is a surprise

I did indeed refer to the impact of the Referendum and I do take your point…although I prefer Sith’s puncture analogy. The damage was done by the Referendum result and it is that which we have never recovered from.

[Geoff Parkstone]

Save that several on here were predicting all 4 tyres going flat

[SithHappens]

True, some were predicting 4 flat tyres, but the promise was back to the future type flying cars. So we only got 2 flat tyres so all is good. Personally I'd have preferred my tyres just to continue fully inflated just as they were, sadly the hot air expelled by gas bags Farage and Johnson weren't enough to keep them so. Still..

[Trickytreesreds]

The fact remains the Euro zone itself has performed terribly for a while. Its share of world trade continues to dwindle. To say Brexit has dragged the pound down, is wrong, No one in here knows how bad it would be, had we stayed in the EU but with a seperate currency.
Its an argument used to suit an agenda.
The fact is, the doom prophecies never materialised to the extent that the cultists predicted.

The Tories are massively guilty of not pushing our new freedoms and the signs are, the elites want to cuddle back up to their EU masters.
Its a shrinking market that will only cost us more money for no return.

I note that no one commented on Starmers quote of DAVOS first

[Trickytreesreds]

I predict a return for Johnson soon. The way the Tories are going on, they'll bring him back

[ramAnag]

Save that several on here were predicting all 4 tyres going flat

I just don’t get how you and Tricky can console yourselves with this ‘it could have been worse’, ‘we could have had 4 tyres going flat’, ‘ the doom prophecies never materialised to the extent that the cultists predicted’ - whatever that means - nonsense.
Yes okay, it could have been worse but it’s a sh1t show…it’s been a sh1t show since day one and what ‘new freedoms’ are you talking about?

As for Johnson coming back!! I know desperate times call for desperate measures but really? Are the Tories really desperate enough to want that lying scumbag back?