Quote Originally Posted by Derbymiller View Post
I don't know what in the mix means, so I have assumed that means a top 10 place however I think 8th would be a more sensible boundary. I have then looked at the last 4 seasons how many points were needed for 6th, 8th and 10th place and then using points a game ratios, I have fitted those points to 21 games (On Christmas day we will have played 21 league games). i have used the average across all 4 seasons. The bottom line is we need to win 5 or 6 games out of 9 and pick up a few draws. This means we have to increase our win ratio from 25% to 55% (5 wins) 0r 66% (6 wins), just to be in the mix. That is a hell of an improvement, and what is going to change for that improvement to occur? The table is below:

End of season After 21 games
Season 6th 8th 10th 6th 8th 10th
23/24 76 73 65 35 33 30
22/23 77 70 62 35 32 28
21/22 83 76 73 38 35 33
20/21 74 72 67 34 33 31

Average 78 73 67 35 33 30

Rotherham points after 12 games = 14
Rotherham Points gap between 12 and 21 games 6th = 21 8th =19 10th=16

* = Rotherham have 9 league games before Christmas day
6th 8th 10th
Wins Required to close gap 6 6 5
Draws Required to close the gap 3 1 1
Great stats Derby. An incredible improvement required and it's worrying that 2 of our 3 wins thus far required last gasp goals and one bouncing of Nombe's ar*e to find the net! At least a good chunk of your 9 games are going to be settled within 5 days.....L Orient and Stevenage. These games will take us to 14 played and way beyond the territory of the 'I'll judge them after 10 games'' theory. You feel that if something is ever going to click into gear,these are the games.