O/T:- Betting odds for US Election [The USA Politics Thread]

[Lullapie]

I hope you're right, but seeing as this thread is about betting odds the bookies don't agree. The best odds are currently 8/11 on a Trump win (58% probability), and 7/5 on a Harris win (42% probability).

I'll be pleasantly surprised if Trump isn't POTUS again.

Spot on EP. The odds narrowed yesterday after Ann Selzer's Iowa poll that put Harris 3% up on Trump in a state that has been red since 2016.
Iowans love Trump - I'm more than happy to apologise after the election if I'm wrong.

The devil is in the detail though. Ann Selzer is an anti-Trump Republican, a bit like dear old Liz Cheney. She hates Trump. All the polls prior and since in Iowa have put Trump well out in the lead. It was probably just a rogue poll - that the left-wing media picked up and ran with it.

I notice that they aren't reporting today that three polls since the Selzer one in Iowa, put Trump up by 7%, 8% and 9% respectively.

This spooked the betting market and the probability of a Trump win plummeted to (currently) 57.9% Trump to 40.7% Harris.

Now you're a gambling man EP - which one looks the better bet for the win?

The markets are factoring in a Trump win too. They are predicting a rise in the US$ if he wins, but a large fall if Harris wins. To me, that tells more about who is right for the US. Remember everyone, this is the US Election.

I like my political leaders doing what is best for my country, not what is good for everyone else.