Putin has long warned NATO -and the US particularly -about the consequences of condoning the use of weapons that they have supplied to Ukraine against targets in Russia. It's been all part of his sabre rattling brinkmanship routine. But what, exactly, can he threaten that would not also cost Russia and himself?
The West has been-very understandably-keen to avoid an escalation of Putin's invasion of Ukraine but, ultimately, I agree with Baggieal. Putin is a bully and bullies only understand one thing- the threat of a bigger force against them. They cannot be genuinely negotiated with.
I'm sure the autocratic controls Putin already exercises, coupled with the power of his propaganda machine, would keep the vast majority of the Russian population onside, but the use of limited nuclear weapons on Ukraine, for example, would draw world wide condemnation and any attacks against NATO countries will only lead to a direct conflict that, for all his bluster, he wishes to avoid.
Certainly countries bordering Russia such as Poland or Finland are already gearing up for a fight and any attacks on them would, I am sure, lead to swift retaliation. As for the US, whilst Trump has made a return to a more isolationist foreign policy part of his MAGA mantra, any attempts by Putin to attack US assets anywhere will also surely reap only one reward.
The danger is that you cannot reason with mad people. Hitler was mad, Stalin was mad. "Little Rocket Man" is mad. They don't really care about their own people, they are narcissists and likely psychopaths. But such individuals do not play well together and for all the united front that they may put on against perceived common enemies, there remain marked divisions between Russia, North Korea, Iran and China.
Putin is certainly a bully, but I don't think he is as mad as the aforementioned and Xi Jingpin, despite a similar desire for personal power, is not stupid and is doubtless mindful of China's continued reliance on trade with the West. These two factors alone may give hope to an avoidance of a potential WW3. Much as I hate to say it, the very unpredictability of Trump may also help prevent further escalation. Putin probably had a pretty good feel for how far he could push Biden but the Orange One is another matter.
Worrying and dangerous times but we have been here before. Let's just hope that we can learn from history.
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