Quote Originally Posted by Kent Magpie View Post
That's an easy one - Trump will blink first. Xi has more to lose, the Chinese will put up with the hardship more (and have less freedom to complain even now) and Trump has a population who are totally gullible, so he can present his eventual climbdown as a total victory without much downside to his national reputation.
Can't see China having more to lose. If reports are correct then only 2% of China's GDP goes to America. How much does America rely on Chinese production? It's got to be a lot, and more than "Penguin Island" otherwise Trump wouldn't be complaining. But a lot of Amercan products rely on Chinese components and even manufacturer. Indeed, who is going to make Trumps MAGA caps now without costing more?

There's a guy whose name I didn't catch, interviews on BBC News, based in USA but sounds Australian who is an economics expert who said Trump wouldn't/didn't even pass Econ#1. Yesterday he made the simple explanation of the flaw in Trumps trade thinking: The expert says that every week he goes into the butcher to buy meat and then on the way out asks if the butcher would like to equalise the trade by buying some economics expertise. The butcher declines and so the economic experts depart with a "trade deficit". He then returns to his place of work where he does his lecturing and gets paid and is now in a "trade surplus". He would have no gain by imposing tariffs on his butcher, nor would his college gain by imposing tariffs on the consultancy. Indeed it would make absolutely no sense to do so, other than to Mr Trump.

China will not back down - it will be "up yours" in the most polite of Asian manners. The problem is that whilst Trump might want to MAGA, it is, by his definition, NOT GREAT. It does not command the power Trump thinks and that's why he needs to Make America Great Again, but he's going about it in totally the wrong way. I'm now becoming convinced that there is no other way out of this mess other than some commonsense is imposed on the American administration and Trump is given gardening leave on one of his precious golf courses.

But what do I know?