24/25 Last 10 Games Top 5

[Bohinen]

Interesting stuff, and some good work there, but I would say projecting PPG over the entire season is not very predictive as it doesn't take account of current from. Walsall are doing a Rochdale, 14 points and they effed it up, and I think it's quite likely they will miss out altogether to teams coming into form at the right time, like Port Vale who they play on Saturday. On that basis, three positions are up for grabs for the rest, and Notts have a good chance of making it.

[OchPie]

Lots of changes. Plenty of scope for further shifts, for us and for others.

Just one game in hand left among the top 11 - Doncaster travelling to Salford right after we play them.

Place-based game difficulty starting to widen.

[Mud Pie]

slowly crawling out of a pit of Notts induced depression after last week here - bet I'm not the only one. Reminder - we could still get promoted this year! That's not hope, not doing hope, just facts.

As Stall pointed out on MC yesterday, the last automatic spot as well as playoff spots might go down to the last day of the season:

Notts v Donny
Wombles v Grimsby
Walsall v Crewe

Weird season with everyone jostling to be the least crap promotion contender. Likely going to be a mad last day.

That said, we probably need Salford to beat Donny today to have any chance of the last auto position, although this season anything could happen. 1-1 as it stands - but THIS is what TWO competitive teams with something to play for looks like, NOTTS!!!!

[OchPie]

So after the last set of games including last night, the top two swap places and some shifts in the chasing pack.



Every team in the current top 7 except Walsall still has to play two others in that group. It's going to be a roller coaster.

[Woodypie]

Probably, four wins would secure a top three spot. Unfortunately, Notts don't look like a team capable of that, or Maynard a coach capable of that. Who knows? Game on...

[Mud Pie]

Probably, four wins would secure a top three spot.

even though we 'dropped' points at Bradford, after today's results, I think 3 wins would secure an autospot, most likely.

Building on Och's fine work, here's my estimated top 6 (only thinking us and above):


Port Vale - 76 - Run in: Grimsby, Wimbledon, Gillingham

surprising loss today, likely to drop more points probably not many

ePV Total: 83

Donny - 75 - Run-in: Colchester, Bradford, Notts

difficult run-in they could lose all three, but today will have given them confidence

eDoncaster Total: 77

Bradford - 74 - Run-in: Chesterfield, Doncaster, Fleetwood

they remind me of us, limited when not at full strength, but a good limited

eBradford Total: 81

Walsall - 73 - Run-in: Newport, Accro, Crewe

ugh, hard to predict unless you just follow recent form, still fighting draw today and the easiest run-in on paper

eWalsall Total: 76

Wombles - 72 - Run-in: Gillingham, PV, Grimsby

horrible recent form, with one exception

eWimbledon Total: 77

Notts - 69 - Run-in: Cheltenham, Harrogate, Donny

on our day you have to say we're likely to win all 3, but will we have 3 on days, and what if it does come to our home form on the last day ag?

eNotts Total: 78

---------------------

estimated Final Table

Port Vale ---- 83
Bradford ---- 81
Notts -------- 78
-------------------
Wimbledon -- 77
Doncaster --- 77
Walsall ------- 76

[OchPie]

Great and encouraging work Mud! Down to the wire indeed.

Changes both to top 3 and top 7 from the last round, as Walsall finally exit the auto places and Colchester usurp Grimsby on GD.

I've also added green text for the True Mid-Table clubs - those who can no longer be either promoted or relegated (only three right now!).



Our run-in does look nicer than others, but the rulebook does tend to go out of the window at the sharp end of the season. As we saw on Friday. Hold on!

[OchPie]

At the bottom, too, things are a little crazy suddenly. Carlisle (who looked dead and buried) beating the leaders has opened the potential to heat things up a bit. By the time we go to Harrogate, they could be only 4 points ahead of Carlisle with two to play. I wouldn't like to be Franchise, Accrington or Tranmere in that situation either. Newport can in theory still go down but realistically should be safe.

[the_anticlough]

A win on Monday and Salford will definitely finish beneath* us

Salford would be 10pts behind at that moment with a far inferior goal difference.

Salford's goal difference is a measly 5 and Notts' a whopping 19

Salford will NOT get anywhere near the play-off places, most likely

Notts are 7pts better than Salford and there are only 3 games go.

* lower than/behind/under

Didn't need to post that, but have to say it felt good typing out
Now, I'll post something more relevant (than Salford I mean)

[the_anticlough]

For the next couple of days, I'd rather focus on the play-offs than the outside shot at autos. Let's get a win first and see where it puts us.

By 5pm Monday, we could have sealed a play-off berth effectively.

A win would mean that Swindon, Crewe, Salford, Grimsby and Chesterfield couldn't catch us (If C'field fail to beat Bradford and Grimsby lose at Port Vale)
But I guess we'll take our chances and back Chesterfield to beat Bradford. If we can't get 4pts from the last 3 games, we wouldn't deserve to get in anyway.