24/25 Last 10 Games Top 5

[upthemaggies]

1st place finishing with 82 pts would equal the all-time low tally for 4th tier champions in a 46 game season in the 3pts per win era (82 pts winning the title for Rotherham in 1989 and Cheltenham behind closed doors in 2021).

Burnley won the 3rd tier with 80 points from 46 games in 1982.

Port Vale currently on course to finish top with 81.

[dobbsad]

HOW TO ACHIEVE AUTOMATIC. Well the four wins have gone, but we still have a realistic path to achieve a top 3 position.

I?m discounting PV and assuming no-one does a Rovers and scores 8 on the final day, we will need to overtake three of the clubs above us.

This this how:

* win the remaining three games!!!
If we do so THEN

* Chezzie beat Bratfud on Monday. We will then overtake at least one of Bratfud and Donny
* Walsall only win one of their remaining three games (2 Away). We will then overtake Walsall
* AFC only win two of their remaining three games (2 Away). We will then overtake AFC

Simple. UPIES

[The_Don_ORiordan]

HOW TO ACHIEVE AUTOMATIC. Well the four wins have gone, but we still have a realistic path to achieve a top 3 position.

I?m discounting PV and assuming no-one does a Rovers and scores 8 on the final day, we will need to overtake three of the clubs above us.

This this how:

* win the remaining three games!!!
If we do so THEN

* Chezzie beat Bratfud on Monday. We will then overtake at least one of Bratfud and Donny
* Walsall only win one of their remaining three games (2 Away). We will then overtake Walsall
* AFC only win two of their remaining three games (2 Away). We will then overtake AFC

Simple. UPIES

Thing is I could see all that happening except us winning the three remaining games.

[marky]

[QUOTE=upthemaggies;40693169]1st place finishing with 82 pts would equal the all-time low tally for 4th tier champions in a 46 game season in the 3pts per win era (82 pts winning the title for Rotherham in 1989 and Cheltenham behind closed doors in 2021).

Burnley won the 3rd tier with 80 points from 46 games in 1982.

I really won't be surprised if it's a record low tally to win this League, I reckon it'll be like Derby's record low points in the Premier League in that it'll be years if ever it's broken again.

[1955pie]

HOW TO ACHIEVE AUTOMATIC. Well the four wins have gone, but we still have a realistic path to achieve a top 3 position.

I?m discounting PV and assuming no-one does a Rovers and scores 8 on the final day, we will need to overtake three of the clubs above us.

This this how:

* win the remaining three games!!!
If we do so THEN

* Chezzie beat Bratfud on Monday. We will then overtake at least one of Bratfud and Donny
* Walsall only win one of their remaining three games (2 Away). We will then overtake Walsall
* AFC only win two of their remaining three games (2 Away). We will then overtake AFC

Simple. UPIES

Not quite so simple dobbsad
If Walsall just win the one but draw the other 2 they would have 78 points also, so would be down to goal difference.
If Bradford draw with Doncaster and beat Fleetwood they would also be on 78 points so goal difference again.
As for Doncaster that same draw with Bradford and a win over Colchester would give them 79 points.
If Bradford beat Doncaster and Fleetwood they would be on 81 points. Even if Doncaster do lose that match to Bradford, a win over Colchester would give them 78 points. So goal difference again.
So whilst we might win the last 3 games, I think we need to boost our goal difference by more than the 3 we would gain by winning each by just 1.
It could even go to goals scored. And we are not doing too well compared to Walsall and Doncaster.
And of course the big question, can we win the 3 games first? I hope so.

[durhampie]

If we had beaten the the likes of Salford, Colchester and Barrow at home we wouldnt be having this this debate.. if you cant beat teams like those then you deserve nothing.. Its all been down to weak management and poor use of the subs..

[OchPie]

If we had beaten the the likes of Salford, Colchester and Barrow at home we wouldnt be having this this debate.. if you cant beat teams like those then you deserve nothing..

Every team in the top 7 can list examples like that. Port Vale couldn't beat Harrogate or Colchester or Carlisle at home. Doncaster couldn't beat Salford or Cheltenham or Bromley at home. They currently sit first and second.

[MAD_MAGPIE]

For the next couple of days, I'd rather focus on the play-offs than the outside shot at autos. Let's get a win first and see where it puts us.

By 5pm Monday, we could have sealed a play-off berth effectively.

A win would mean that Swindon, Crewe, Salford, Grimsby and Chesterfield couldn't catch us (If C'field fail to beat Bradford and Grimsby lose at Port Vale)
But I guess we'll take our chances and back Chesterfield to beat Bradford. If we can't get 4pts from the last 3 games, we wouldn't deserve to get in anyway.

A team needs to win half it's games if wants to get automatic promotion. The exception to this in the last ten years was Bury who won 22, drew 13 and lost 11.

We can only win a maximum of 22 games so automatics are an outside chance. But still a chance.

A win today needs to be more about keeping Colchester and Grimsby below us and getting a step closer to securing that playoff place as you say. The one advantage we have over those two is our goal difference which is worth an extra point but it's sailing very close to the wind to rely on that.

If anything we could do with increasing our goal difference by about five to get in front of Walsall and Wimbledon's goal difference as they are on +21 and +23 respectively whereas we are on +19.

[Notts78]

I think we should focus on ourselves..what will be will be? we can only get 9 more points, if we do that, we have a chance, if we don?t, we won?t.

[dobbsad]

“My bad” as those in the Kop say.
I’d originally written “ assuming no-one does a Rovers and scores 8 on the final day, plus we win our games by on average, two goals per match, thus boosting our GD by 6.”
However I thought that torturous, so cut the last part of the sentence, meaning to insert it after “winning the three games” later on.
But didn’t do it! Doh!

Let’s hope AJ doesn’t mess his big chance as much this afternoon, as I have done! Otherwise that five nill prediction will seem optimistic.