Election Year or Fear!

[Andy_Faber]

No. I don't think he's near power. Reform has won a number of councils, 10 or 12 wasn't it? That's their opportunity to show that they have some sensible people with the right kind of qualities to run a council. If they can do that, enough people might be persuaded to vote for them in the hope that they can transfer local administration success through to national and international policies. They've given themselves a chance. If they are as "successful" as UKIP was with the one council they ever controlled (bankrupt inside 7 months) then Reform won't be the largest party at the next election. They've given themselves a chance to show what they can do. If they do that wisely, they'll win the next election. Failure at local level would, IMO, see them fall by the wayside nationally.

Not close but they have opened the door.

If they do screw up locally, I have no idea what will happen at the next GE. They won't win. I don't see red or blue doing well either. LibDem? Unlikely but it could happen. Red, Blue, Reform all with similar numbers of seats in the 150 to 175 ballpark? 100+ for LibDem and then the MP from the colonies (they aren't equal partners in a Union) and the odd green etc. A coalition would be the likely outcome but would other parties join in or would the biggest or two others form a minority government?

So many things can change between now and then

PS - I know, as does every other poster on here, that red/blue Tories is "my phrase" so I don't understand the need to emphasise it.

I didn?t mean the power of government, I meant the power of influence

[swaledale]

I didn?t mean the power of government, I meant the power of influence

You are for once spot on, Farage has far more influence than he should ahve based on the fact that he has no actual policies, just vague statements about what Reform would do.

I did fear that labour would try to veer towards reform's views on immigration and they ahve, a big mistake IMO, those likely to vote reform will do so anyway and those like me who find the language used offensive will consider voting for others.

Yet Starmer could and should ahve used a much different tone. There is much one can agree with, the Tories did allow uncontrolled immigration post Brexit, there does need to be a fair system to allow immigrants in and an effective efficient system for processing Asylum claims and deporting those wo don't qualify or in the country illegally. Same with deporting those with criminal records etc. Indeed labour are actually deporting significant numbers, but of course successful deportations don't make news.

But the language and tone of his speech was offensive to anybody other than right leaning voters, the majority of whom as experience has shown will vote for a right wing party in any case, not a party aping right wing views.

It is depressing because it would be reasonably simple to discredit Farage, show up his contradictions and attack reform's lack of experience and thread bare policies yet few in the media or in politics do so.