Election Year or Fear!

[macstheman]

Farage's embarrassment doesn't outway Labour's utter obliteration!

[Geoff Parkstone]

Reform failing to win in Caerphilly was nice to see. Especially as they have been celebrating the win there for sometime.

Perhaps a warning to them that opinion polls don't always translate

Its an interesting result, obviously distorted by the Welsh-ness of having Plaid Cymru taking a lot of the defecting labour vote, so Im not sure quite what it says about how a bye election without the Welsh effect might go.

Con, Lab, LD and Green all cleaned out with Labour converting a 6k majority into a massive defeat. Not sure any of these will be happy, let alone Reform who perhaps would have been expected to win as the primary protest vote nationwide.

Its easy to be gleeful that Reform missed an open goal, but if I were the goalkeeper Id be even more concerned. I might even sit up and take notice but I doubt 2TS will, hes got a big enough parliamentary majority to ignore the mood of the nation - and Im sure will continue to do so - after all his Dad was a toolmaker, didnt you know?

[Andy_Faber]

Its an interesting result, obviously distorted by the Welsh-ness of having Plaid Cymru taking a lot of the defecting labour vote, so Im not sure quite what it says about how a bye election without the Welsh effect might go.

Con, Lab, LD and Green all cleaned out with Labour converting a 6k majority into a massive defeat. Not sure any of these will be happy, let alone Reform who perhaps would have been expected to win as the primary protest vote nationwide.

Its easy to be gleeful that Reform missed an open goal, but if I were the goalkeeper Id be even more concerned. I might even sit up and take notice but I doubt 2TS will, hes got a big enough parliamentary majority to ignore the mood of the nation - and Im sure will continue to do so - after all his Dad was a toolmaker, didnt you know?

I'm surprised Reform haven't made more of the massive vote swing - maybe they're learning to control their excitement. They (and the new Corbyn vehicle if it ever gets into gear) are certainly going to **** things up over the next four years.

[SithHappens]

I'm surprised Reform haven't made more of the massive vote swing - maybe they're learning to control their excitement. They (and the new Corbyn vehicle if it ever gets into gear) are certainly going to **** things up over the next four years.

They are doing. Claiming victory because of it. Of course it was significant but they still lost despite their (over) confidence, bit of a Steve Ovett moment.

[ramAnag]

They are doing. Claiming victory because of it. Of course it was significant but they still lost despite their (over) confidence, bit of a Steve Ovett moment.

As mac says, nothing outweighs Labour’s obliteration in what has always been a safe seat, or disguises the fact that their loss was roughly equivalent to Reform’s gain.
On the other hand there is some comfort to be taken from the fact that while 12,113 voted for the prat in the purple pants…21,573 didn’t, even at a time when protest votes are regularly quite spectacular.

[Geoff Parkstone]

But they do make nice cheese in Caerphilly. Blessed are the cheese makers (not toolmakers)

[SithHappens]

Apparently there was a better than usual turn out in the younger generation which swung the vote.

Promising signs, we know Reforms demographic is the older generation. This is key getting younger people voting. If only they'd bothered in 2016

[Andy_Faber]

Apparently there was a better than usual turn out in the younger generation which swung the vote.

Promising signs, we know Reforms demographic is the older generation. This is key getting younger people voting. If only they'd bothered in 2016

The demographic that made the difference yesterday wasn?t youth it was Welshness. There?s no equivalent in England, last night there were two alternative votes, in England there?s only one.

[ramAnag]

But they do make nice cheese in Caerphilly. Blessed are the cheese makers (not toolmakers)

I think you may have exhausted your ‘toolmaker’s son’ reference now…even more than Starmer did all of 16 months or so ago.

[ramAnag]

The demographic that made the difference yesterday wasn?t youth it was Welshness. There?s no equivalent in England, last night there were two alternative votes, in England there?s only one.

I suspect those in Cornwall, London and a number of major cities may disagree.
Agree, ‘Welshness’ was a significant factor yesterday, but that doesn’t disprove Sith’s theory that the youth vote was also important…unless you actually KNOW differently about the Caerphilly demographic, which I doubt you do.