Election Year or Fear!

[Geoff Parkstone]

Ah, sorry, you initially referred to a ‘phrase’, not a word. Hence my confusion.

Yes, I have referred to people, usually TTR, ‘deflecting’ and I am aware of Labour’s ‘failings’. If you want to talk about ‘defection’ however, well that seems to be more of a Tory problem and I guess your mention of ‘defecation’ should be reserved for the sh1t show that RUK are rapidly becoming.

I have, as is my wont, looked at a few numbers comparing the by-election to the 2024 general election (before then the constituency boundaries changed but then it was an even stronger labour stronghold)

The by-election turnout and the 2024 GE turnout were almost identical (+/- 250). The general election showed a Lab majority over reform of 13400 and 13800 over Green; the bye election showed a Green majority over Lab of 5600.

the general election result was somewhat bent out of shape by there being a split vote following George Galloway defection from Labour and running a Workers Party candidate who picked up 3800 votes presumably from Lab, whose majority likely would have been 17000 or so without the split.

So, and this is where we need to assume a bit, I imagine the 2200 decline in Tory vote went to Reform and the fall in LibDem vote went Green, as did the Workers Party vote (althought this is debatable, may have gone Lab)

So this leaves a reduction in Labour vote of 9200 - approx 500 to the fringe parties, 3300 to Reform and 5400 to Green. Both swings are protest votes against Lab altough quite likely the swing to Green was more tactical to ensure the collapsing Labour vote didnt lead to a Reform win?

So was it a disaster for Reform? They appear to have taken 3300 votes off a Labour vote which triggered a chunk of tactical voting to Green in anticipation of a Labour defeat. But had a little over half of those 5400 that may have been tactically voting Green to block Reform remained loyal to Labour, guess what?? Labour would have won by a slim majority.

Can I have a job as a Starmer spin doctor please

[swaledale]

I have, as is my wont, looked at a few numbers comparing the by-election to the 2024 general election (before then the constituency boundaries changed but then it was an even stronger labour stronghold)

The by-election turnout and the 2024 GE turnout were almost identical (+/- 250). The general election showed a Lab majority over reform of 13400 and 13800 over Green; the bye election showed a Green majority over Lab of 5600.

the general election result was somewhat bent out of shape by there being a split vote following George Galloway defection from Labour and running a Workers Party candidate who picked up 3800 votes presumably from Lab, whose majority likely would have been 17000 or so without the split.

So, and this is where we need to assume a bit, I imagine the 2200 decline in Tory vote went to Reform and the fall in LibDem vote went Green, as did the Workers Party vote (althought this is debatable, may have gone Lab)

So this leaves a reduction in Labour vote of 9200 - approx 500 to the fringe parties, 3300 to Reform and 5400 to Green. Both swings are protest votes against Lab altough quite likely the swing to Green was more tactical to ensure the collapsing Labour vote didnt lead to a Reform win?

So was it a disaster for Reform? They appear to have taken 3300 votes off a Labour vote which triggered a chunk of tactical voting to Green in anticipation of a Labour defeat. But had a little over half of those 5400 that may have been tactically voting Green to block Reform remained loyal to Labour, guess what?? Labour would have won by a slim majority.

Can I have a job as a Starmer spin doctor please

Nah your too charismatic!