Quote Originally Posted by Ram Pant View Post
The policies of Khamenei were enforced by the Revolutionary Guard, the Army, the Police and a militia who ride round on motor bikes/scooters. All of the above are well armed and there's around 300K of them. They and their supporters/family, according to a Dutch journalist who's lived in Iran for the past 25 years and has returned to NL until the battle is over, number some 8M. That's one "side". The other "side" is around 85M mostly unarmed people.

Outnumbered 10 to 1 but with armaments the ordinary folk don't have, the RG etc might have been promised immunity by Trump but, as yet, not by the 85M. Ig the regime's "enforcers" do lay down their arms, are they really going to be safe? I'd say not. The moment the US/Israeli "whatever it is" stopsm the RG et al will go out looking for those currently out in the streets dancing.

Trump and Netanyahu don't seem to have an exit strategy. The ordinary Iranians are not going to get any kind of freedom, IMO.
Further complicated by the fact that Iranians over 90% are Shia Muslim, whilst over 90% of Muslims are Sunni, so even within the other side 85m there is not necessarily an agreement on what could or would replace the current regime. Indeed there are numerous factions who may well use any vacuum to pursue their own agendas and vendettas, as was seen in Iraq and Libya.

Which made it all the more ironic, when Badenoch accused Starmer (who IMO has been handled the matter well to date) of not wholly supporting the US action due to him being in hoc to the Muslim vote - mm most UK Muslims are Sunni, so hardly supportive of the late unlamented Supreme leader.!

It all makes for worrying atmosphere of chaos and of course a spawning ground for Jihadi's.

The neigbouring states, Sauid, UAE, etc. are majority Sunni so not all that symapthetic to Iran, though not necessarily happy for the US to be the dominant force.

Its not clear that Trump has a strategy, or a plan. It is an illustration of why he admires Putin and has done almost nothing to stop the war in Ukariane, don't like the government in another state, remove them with force!