Election Year or Fear!

[swaledale]

Mm I was obviously confused by your claim that DEMAND WOULD SLUMP, when obviously its supply thats the problem! Maybe ensure your own posts are correct before adopting a superior tone?

Yes there is an issue in that ships can't acess loading facilties if they are the wrong side of the Strait of Hormuz, and if they are too large to traverse the Suez canal they won't be able to depart either.

So there is medium term disrupton, but there is an alternative route for the many, unless of course about 25% of the world's oil is sourced from here, maybe Trump's sequestration of Venezuelian oil has a point, apart from its low quality of course.

Hard to see how your pet theory about choking off China's oil is realistic if the US action has choked off the world's supply. In point of fact though, gas supply is probably going to be a bigger issue than oil.

[Geoff Parkstone]

For clarity therefore I was referring to the supply/demand dynamics for the tanker capacity, and frankly noone can really do anything but take an educated guess as to how those dynamics will move it such a volatile geopolitical environment. My logic was that if regime change is achieved and Iranian oil ceases to be sanctioned, then there wouls be an oversupply of tanker capacity in the market leading to feight rate pricing falling as there isnt enough demand for that surplus capacity.

Of course this depends on whether the conventional tanker markets and charterers accept the dark fleet back into the fold or not. If so there will be an oversupply, a drop in demand and freight rates will fall leading to probems for tanker owners funding expensive new buildings. Alternatively a lot of the dark fleet may be scrapped or owners ostracised. Insurance markets may not readmit former dark vessels into the clubs, but underwriters are always after new business regardless of history.

I have no idea how things may evolve otherwise I'd be buying or selling freight rate futures !! So youre just as likely right as I am, or more likely we are both wrong. But either way geopoltical twists and turns since Marinakis fundraise (which is where we started) have/will make him either seem a genius or a fool!

My understanding of the Chinese oil importing process is that they blended the heavier Venezuelan crude with the lighter Iranian crude in their large ship parks off Singapore before transhipping them to the teapots in Shandong, so it seems likely that they need a bit of both to make their processing work most effectively. that said iran produces both light and heavy so the desire for venezuelan crude may be price driven mainly.

[swaledale]

So, in launching a huge bombing campaign on Iran they apparently didn't plan for:

- Who takes over;
- Interceptor shortages from sustained drone retaliation;
- How to defend US bases in the region;
- Threats to ships in the Strait of Hormuz; and
- How to evacuate Americans with airspace closed.

Meanwhile the Daily Fail slags off Starmer for not whole heartedly backing Trump's illegal and badly planned war. FFS!

[Ram Pant]

So, Israel pulls the US into attacking Iran.
Russia condemns it as illegal.
The attack, quite likely, opens the door for China to invade Taiwan.
No country is condemning the attack as they don't want to be called antisemitic.
Neither Israel not the US expected Iran to bomd the entire Gulf.
I am of the opinion that, regardless of what happens in this "war", whether it goes wel or not for Israel/USA, they don't have an exit strategy.
It will all end in tears, for the 90% of the Iranians who have been terrorised by the RG, Army and Police for decades. That 90% don't have weapons but the RG etc do, and lots iof them. Protests will, yet again see mass killings.

[swaledale]

So, Israel pulls the US into attacking Iran.
Russia condemns it as illegal.
The attack, quite likely, opens the door for China to invade Taiwan.
No country is condemning the attack as they don't want to be called antisemitic.
Neither Israel not the US expected Iran to bomd the entire Gulf.
I am of the opinion that, regardless of what happens in this "war", whether it goes wel or not for Israel/USA, they don't have an exit strategy.
It will all end in tears, for the 90% of the Iranians who have been terrorised by the RG, Army and Police for decades. That 90% don't have weapons but the RG etc do, and lots iof them. Protests will, yet again see mass killings.

Now the US has torpedoed an Iranian Warship off the coast of Sri Lanka! TV personality turned Sec of War Hegseth thinks its a video game. This is getting dangerous.

Plus the view is beign expressed that Iran has more drones than there are interceptors and could continue the random launching of drones for a long time.

One would think that the myth of being able to win a war, primarily through bombing, would have been busted by history, but then I guess the US doesn't recognise any history where its been a failure! Rather like Trump and his business "acumen"!

[Geoff Parkstone]

Now the US has torpedoed an Iranian Warship off the coast of Sri Lanka! TV personality turned Sec of War Hegseth thinks its a video game. This is getting dangerous.

Plus the view is beign expressed that Iran has more drones than there are interceptors and could continue the random launching of drones for a long time.

One would think that the myth of being able to win a war, primarily through bombing, would have been busted by history, but then I guess the US doesn't recognise any history where its been a failure! Rather like Trump and his business "acumen"!

I'm sure they could still win it by bombing alone, depending on what they bomb with

[SithHappens]

How dare he considering his links to Russian spies?

https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/2029182576049492053?s=20

[ramAnag]

Listening to PMQs on the journey up to Manchester this lunchtime and I know they all do it, but I thought Badenoch was dreadful.
Nothing to contribute so she just resorted to typical attempts at point scoring which Starmer brushed aside with relative ease imo.
To me Starmer sounded statesmanlike and sensible. Neither is he the only one to have misgivings. Pedro Sanchez, the Spanish PM, is at greater odds with Trump over the legality of the U.S./Israeli actions leading to the POTUS chucking his toys out of the pram again and threatening to cease all trade with Spain.
Brilliant! Don’t know about Starmer being ‘no Winston Churchill’ - not something that’ll worry him greatly I imagine - but both Badenoch and Trump appear to have little awareness of the need for action to be legal and allies to be united.

P.S. May just be me, but I can’t get your link to work, Sith.

[swaledale]

Listening to PMQs on the journey up to Manchester this lunchtime and I know they all do it, but I thought Badenoch was dreadful.
Nothing to contribute so she just resorted to typical attempts at point scoring which Starmer brushed aside with relative ease imo.
To me Starmer sounded statesmanlike and sensible. Neither is he the only one to have misgivings. Pedro Sanchez, the Spanish PM, is at greater odds with Trump over the legality of the U.S./Israeli actions leading to the POTUS chucking his toys out of the pram again and threatening to cease all trade with Spain.
Brilliant! Don’t know about Starmer being ‘no Winston Churchill’ - not something that’ll worry him greatly I imagine - but both Badenoch and Trump appear to have little awareness of the need for action to be legal and allies to be united.

P.S. May just be me, but I can’t get your link to work, Sith.

Bad enoch, was just dreadful, I mean, its customary to support the PM at times like this, but no apparently, rushing headlong into supporting Trump would be the right thing to do!

Its not even as if its the first time the UK has refused to automatically support the US, we kept out of Vietnam. People forget this "special relationship£ does depend upon who is in office in the US. One is never a friend of Trump, everything he does is transactional, if it suits him your his "friend" if it doesn't your not! Next week Trump will be saying Starmer is his "bigley" mate.

[SithHappens]

Listening to PMQs on the journey up to Manchester this lunchtime and I know they all do it, but I thought Badenoch was dreadful.
Nothing to contribute so she just resorted to typical attempts at point scoring which Starmer brushed aside with relative ease imo.
To me Starmer sounded statesmanlike and sensible. Neither is he the only one to have misgivings. Pedro Sanchez, the Spanish PM, is at greater odds with Trump over the legality of the U.S./Israeli actions leading to the POTUS chucking his toys out of the pram again and threatening to cease all trade with Spain.
Brilliant! Don’t know about Starmer being ‘no Winston Churchill’ - not something that’ll worry him greatly I imagine - but both Badenoch and Trump appear to have little awareness of the need for action to be legal and allies to be united.

P.S. May just be me, but I can’t get your link to work, Sith.

This

https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/2029182576049492053