Election Year or Fear!

[MadAmster]

You do all make me giggle with your conspiracy theories

Eargate. I always doubted it as it is something seen many a time and oft at WWE and its forerunner the WWF shows.

I googled "if a bullet grazed my ear would it leave a scar?" The answer is...

Yes, a bullet grazing the ear would almost certainly leave a scar. The injury would likely result in a permanent, shallow, or irregular notch in the cartilage, as ear cartilage does not regenerate, and healing involves the formation of scar tissue. While small lacerations might close quickly, significant damage to the skin and cartilage generally leads to a noticeable scar or distortion.
Source - Weniger Plastic Surgery

Key Aspects of a Bullet Graze to the Ear:
Scar Tissue Formation: Because ear cartilage has a poor blood supply, it does not heal seamlessly; instead, the body fills the damaged area with scar tissue.
Permanent Distortion: A graze from a high-velocity round, such as a rifle bullet, can remove skin and cartilage, leaving a permanent depression or deformed edge, as 7 and 1 discuss in their Quora posts regarding similar injuries 2, 7.
Healing Time: Such injuries, while not immediately fatal, can take months to fully heal.
Wound Characteristics: A grazing wound often produces an elliptical furrow with ragged edges, which typically leaves a permanent scar.
Source - PubMed Central (PMC) (.gov)

While some superficial grazing wounds might heal with minimal scarring, any injury that tears the cartilage will leave a lasting mark.

You may think that was a conspiracy theory but it's backed up by fact. His ear shows no sign of having been "shot" and the facts say it would be scarred.

The haphazard way this latest "attack" panned out is, IMO, one of 3 things. A fake, just as I believe eargate to be. A totally amateur affair with no real planning by someone of low intelligence, and this bloke is, apparently, quite smart between the ears. Or the work of someone who's gone doolally.

[ramAnag]

Hmmm. Seems Jeremy Hosking, of Hosking Partners, has recently increased his investments in oil and gas shares to over 300 million GDP.

That’s the same Jeremy Hosking who has donated 1.7 million GDP to Reform UK led by the same Nigel Farage who has pledged to extract ‘every last drop’ of oil and gas from the North Sea while denying all evidence of climate change.

The rich keep getting richer…quite coincidentally and at what cost?

[Geoff Parkstone]

I?m surprised because, apparently naively, I imagined that the cost of oil related products had risen exponentially which is why we are paying more for petrol, diesel and heating oil etc. I hadn?t, again apparently naively, factored in that the oil and petrol companies are profiting to such an extent from the crisis. Silly of me!

lets say if you make a 10% mark up on selling a product, then it the product cost goes up by eg 50% you will increase your price to maintain the 10% markup - meaning your gross profits in monetary terms will go up 50%. You havent changed your margin but the turnover and cost of sales have risen proportionately. Equally you have a bigger base turnover to spread your overhheads across hence not profit will increase by more than 50%.

Of course the converse is true in that if prices fall then your gross margin will fall proportionately and your ability to absorb overheads will become impaired.

This where windfall taxes are a tad unfair in that they will get you when markets go up, but there is no equivalent relief when markets fall. In an incredibly volatile market where prices were moving significantly from day to day a lot also depends on the timing of the market shifts.

This is an exceptionally simplistic version as oil trading in particular (but also as with most commodities) yjr uses of futures trading hedging an options smooth things out longer term, but in any one quarterly cycle there can be very anomalous results.. The other quarter to quarter impact is simply the massive increase in stock values of oil held at the previous quarter end - pump prices will have gone up whilst the older cheaper stock holdings are being sold of at current higher yields. Then again same things happen in reverse.

The figures for comparison are (per BP) "Reported profit for the quarter was $3.8 billion, compared with a loss of $3.4 billion for the fourth quarter 2025." Thats a lot more than doubled. I suspect what youve seen is results on an underlying replacement cost basis which have approx double butare somewhat "pie in the sky" and not representative of what the actual cost really are.

[Geoff Parkstone]

those selling at higher prices are likely not "oil drillers" and so have more volatile costs of oil. BP as a producer / "driller" of oil are less vulnerable to the volatile as MA notes. They still will suffer increased transport and insurance costs for example but not necessarily as much of an increase in extraction costs. So in times of rising oil prices buy from retailers selling extractor product, and in falling markets buy from tesco perhaps who dont have their own product to use up??

[Geoff Parkstone]

[QUOTE=ramAnag;40822608]Hmmm. Seems Jeremy Hosking, of Hosking Partners, has recently increased his investments in oil and gas shares to over 300 million GDP.

That’s the same Jeremy Hosking who has donated 1.7 million GDP to Reform UK led by the same Nigel Farage who has pledged to extract ‘every last drop’ of oil and gas from the North Sea while denying all evidence of climate change.

The rich keep getting richer…quite coincidentally and at what cost?[/QUOTE

Sounds a sensible investment decision to me as of a few weeks ago. But as oil markets fall he may see it differently. Investing is long term.

In reality pledging financial support for someone intent on "massively" increasing supplies of oil onto the market is not sensible as Reform policy in this respect is likely to see the price of oil fall.

[ramAnag]

lets say if you make a 10% mark up on selling a product, then it the product cost goes up by eg 50% you will increase your price to maintain the 10% markup - meaning your gross profits in monetary terms will go up 50%. You havent changed your margin but the turnover and cost of sales have risen proportionately. Equally you have a bigger base turnover to spread your overhheads across hence not profit will increase by more than 50%.

Of course the converse is true in that if prices fall then your gross margin will fall proportionately and your ability to absorb overheads will become impaired.

This where windfall taxes are a tad unfair in that they will get you when markets go up, but there is no equivalent relief when markets fall. In an incredibly volatile market where prices were moving significantly from day to day a lot also depends on the timing of the market shifts.

This is an exceptionally simplistic version as oil trading in particular (but also as with most commodities) yjr uses of futures trading hedging an options smooth things out longer term, but in any one quarterly cycle there can be very anomalous results.. The other quarter to quarter impact is simply the massive increase in stock values of oil held at the previous quarter end - pump prices will have gone up whilst the older cheaper stock holdings are being sold of at current higher yields. Then again same things happen in reverse.

The figures for comparison are (per BP) "Reported profit for the quarter was $3.8 billion, compared with a loss of $3.4 billion for the fourth quarter 2025." Thats a lot more than doubled. I suspect what youve seen is results on an underlying replacement cost basis which have approx double butare somewhat "pie in the sky" and not representative of what the actual cost really are.

GP, I know I cannot compete with you on the finer details of finance. It’s your area of expertise, I accept that and value your input where such matters are concerned.

Morally however, my personal opinion is that it is unacceptable for companies and individuals to be profiting from a war which is increasing the cost of everything from going to work, going on holiday, planting crops, delivering food and heating our homes.

[Geoff Parkstone]

PS per Wiki the donation of 1.7 million you reference was made in 2016 to the "Vote Leave" party. He supported various pro Brexit parties including Farage's Brexit Party and also founded the Reclaim Party (formerly Brexit Express) in 2020. In total I'd suggest he has donated way more than 1.7 to Reform and its predecessor Farage fronted parties between 2016 to date. Dont underestimate!!

During the same timeframe the following have donated money to their preferred, Labour, party accoring to google3.

United the Union 52 million
UNISON27 million
GMB 26 million
USDAW 22 million

Hosking must try harder

[Geoff Parkstone]

ra "Morally however, my personal opinion is that it is unacceptable for companies and individuals to be profiting from a war which is increasing the cost of everything from going to work, going on holiday, planting crops, delivering food and heating our homes."

Im with you there but lets look at a bigger picture - there is no evidence that th wwatr will be profitable for BP since one isd only looking at a snapshot for the quarter. How the twists and turns of the oil market will treat them longer term is an unknown. Also, consider this: wasd talking to a mate in shipping at lunch time and already many economies are going back to coal as an energy source (bulker rates are peaking with heightened demand and the Australian coal producers etc are very happy). He postulated thats its conceivable that those companires that have returned to coal wont go back to oil given the higher cost, volatility of supply/demand and the fact that inevitably the conflict in Middle east will not ever be resolved.

Its an interesting theory that I dont altogether buy into, but consider that impact on the environment and the impact on BP profits longer term

[ramAnag]

PS per Wiki the donation of 1.7 million you reference was made in 2016 to the "Vote Leave" party. He supported various pro Brexit parties including Farage's Brexit Party and also founded the Reclaim Party (formerly Brexit Express) in 2020. In total I'd suggest he has donated way more than 1.7 to Reform and its predecessor Farage fronted parties between 2016 to date. Dont underestimate!!

During the same timeframe the following have donated money to their preferred, Labour, party accoring to google3.

United the Union 52 million
UNISON27 million
GMB 26 million
USDAW 22 million

Hosking must try harder

Given the foundations, origins and original purpose of the Labour Party - to provide the working man with representation in Parliament - it doesn’t seem so surprising.

Compare and contrast with Reform UK where the biggest backers are crypto currency magnate Christopher Harbourne, the aforementioned Hosking and Richard Tice who have, between them, contributed 23 million GDP to RUK and it’s rather harder to take Farage’s ‘man/Party of the people’ claim remotely seriously…and I haven’t even had to mention Elon Musk’s possible proposed huge contribution yet.

[Andy_Faber]

Eargate. I always doubted it as it is something seen many a time and oft at WWE and its forerunner the WWF shows.

I googled "if a bullet grazed my ear would it leave a scar?" The answer is...

Yes, a bullet grazing the ear would almost certainly leave a scar. The injury would likely result in a permanent, shallow, or irregular notch in the cartilage, as ear cartilage does not regenerate, and healing involves the formation of scar tissue. While small lacerations might close quickly, significant damage to the skin and cartilage generally leads to a noticeable scar or distortion.
Source - Weniger Plastic Surgery

Key Aspects of a Bullet Graze to the Ear:
Scar Tissue Formation: Because ear cartilage has a poor blood supply, it does not heal seamlessly; instead, the body fills the damaged area with scar tissue.
Permanent Distortion: A graze from a high-velocity round, such as a rifle bullet, can remove skin and cartilage, leaving a permanent depression or deformed edge, as 7 and 1 discuss in their Quora posts regarding similar injuries 2, 7.
Healing Time: Such injuries, while not immediately fatal, can take months to fully heal.
Wound Characteristics: A grazing wound often produces an elliptical furrow with ragged edges, which typically leaves a permanent scar.
Source - PubMed Central (PMC) (.gov)

While some superficial grazing wounds might heal with minimal scarring, any injury that tears the cartilage will leave a lasting mark.

You may think that was a conspiracy theory but it's backed up by fact. His ear shows no sign of having been "shot" and the facts say it would be scarred.

The haphazard way this latest "attack" panned out is, IMO, one of 3 things. A fake, just as I believe eargate to be. A totally amateur affair with no real planning by someone of low intelligence, and this bloke is, apparently, quite smart between the ears. Or the work of someone who's gone doolally.

I respect your right to believe one or more of the scores of conspiracy theories, and hundreds of nuances within each, or to make up your own, but I'm not even sure in this instance what your point is - why in fact does it matter how or if at all his ear was grazed? If you think its an indication that the event didn't happen, you'd better ask the two people critically injured by the hail of bullets as they sat behind Trump or for that matter the family of the poor fellah who was killed.

I think there are too many folk letting their dislike of Trump cloud their judgement