O/T:- Trump Presidency 2.0 [hic sunt dracones]

[Med Pie]

The period of high inflation under Biden was a direct result of Trump's inflationary policies, and other factors. Not that I minded all of Trump's policies, but any argument that they weren't inflationary is absolute nonsense supported by a grand total of zero economists.

That's how inflation works. It doesn't instantly appear the moment policy is enacted. It takes time, often years, for extra money filtering through to drive prices up. Or if it's supply-based it takes a while for price signals to appear in response to shortages.

Edit: and posting a graph of averages is dishonest. Post a graph of inflation over time and it becomes abundantly clear that it peaked after Trump's presidency and that Biden has been very successful in reducing it.

Trump wants a weak $$$$ to make imports cheaper but, he will penalise imports by levying massive tariffs, said to be, to encourage people to buy American so I suppose it could work on two levels.

Cheap imports where massive tariff is collected - win

Discourages importation and creates a demand for home produced goods which will create jobs - win

He can probably get away with holding the value of the $ down to some extent because most Americans don't travel abroad. I read a stat that said 85% of Americans don't even have a passport.

What do I know.

[Jampie]

Trump wants a weak $$$$ to make imports cheaper but, he will penalise imports by levying massive tariffs, said to be, to encourage people to buy American so I suppose it could work on two levels.

Cheap imports where massive tariff is collected - win

Discourages importation and creates a demand for home produced goods which will create jobs - win

He can probably get away with holding the value of the $ down to some extent because most Americans don't travel abroad. I read a stat that said 85% of Americans don't even have a passport.

What do I know.

Weak dollar will make imports more expensive. Tariffs will make everything more expensive (= inflation).

Tariffs also protect weak industries from competition and stimulate uncompetitive investments. They are always counterproductive in the long term.

Creating jobs in industries your country isn't competitive in is a road to nowhere. It will never result in higher exports (you can't compete so nobody will be buying your stuff) so it just makes those products and services more expensive locally while the rest of the world pays less - and so becomes more competitive than you in other places (cost of living and cost of business is lower for them).

It's just bad economics. Investment should go into industries where the US can be competitive, same as every other country.

[Lullapie]

Trump wants a weak $$$$ to make imports cheaper but, he will penalise imports by levying massive tariffs, said to be, to encourage people to buy American so I suppose it could work on two levels.

Cheap imports where massive tariff is collected - win

Discourages importation and creates a demand for home produced goods which will create jobs - win

He can probably get away with holding the value of the $ down to some extent because most Americans don't travel abroad. I read a stat that said 85% of Americans don't even have a passport.

What do I know.

He?ll have a job with the dollar. There?s money flooding into the US since the election. I believe that the US will end up with a strong dollar and a strong economy. It does happen with some successful economies.

Biden borrowed and wasted so much money (and is continuing with that in his last few days) trying to scupper Trump.

Biden should be investigated for treason. The left are so bitter- you can see where their followers get it from.

[drillerpie]

I don't understand why you keep referring to Trump's policies as inflationary. There's absolutely no proof to your comment. Right wing government's normally reduce inflation and the only reason why Trump isn't bottom of the graph below was because towards the end of his tenure he had to introduce a massive stimulus package to provide relief to Americans because of Covid.

You're making the mistake of using what he says as proof of what he'd do. He's a clever deal maker and he tells his opponents what he COULD do if they don't do as he wants.

[IMG][/IMG]

Ok this is great. Thank you for showing me my mistakes on a topic you are clearly confused about and which I am patiently trying to help you understand.

If you want to discuss any of his most prominent policies (tariffs, mass deportations, etc.) I can tell you why they would be inflationary. Or perhaps you can try to convince me why making it more expensive to import any product from anywhere, or deporting a large part of the workforce, would not be inflationary, at least in the near term.

If your point is that he probably won't go ahead with half of the stuff he promised in his campaign, then yes, I agree. He's already walking back his campaign promise to slap high tariffs on everyone by saying he will introduce them gradually. This happened a couple of days ago, probably as a direct consequence of what is happening in the markets (bond yields rising/stock market going down). I have no doubt he will walk back others, but in the meantime, the big money is pricing in what he says at face value.

Regarding your right / left distinction on inflation, I'd just like to point out that five of the seven highest inflation rates in your graph are from Republican presidents, but that's not really the point. As I said before, inflation can happen for a lot of reasons and a sitting president may or may not have much influence on that. Inflation was abnormally low across most advanced economies from the 2008 financial crisis until Covid, for reasons it's probably not worth explaining here, so whoever was in power (left or right) in that time had low inflation almost by default. Whoever was in power (left or right) during Covid did massive stimulus packages so had high inflation at that time or soon after. Whomever was in power during the oil crisis in the 70s would've had high inflation, and so on.

I would also point out that inflation harms the rich less than it harms the poor. Inflation just means prices are increasing year on year, so during inflationary times people who hold assets (rich) are less affected than people who hold cash (poor), because assets will appreciate in value while cash will depreciate in terms of what you can buy with it.

I would also point out that Trump is not a standard right wing politician. A standard right wing politician would try to develop frictionless trade internationally, and wouldn't even contemplate tariffs.

[drillerpie]

Trump wants a weak $$$$ to make imports cheaper but, he will penalise imports by levying massive tariffs, said to be, to encourage people to buy American so I suppose it could work on two levels.

Cheap imports where massive tariff is collected - win

Discourages importation and creates a demand for home produced goods which will create jobs - win

He can probably get away with holding the value of the $ down to some extent because most Americans don't travel abroad. I read a stat that said 85% of Americans don't even have a passport.

What do I know.

No! That's wrong!

Trump wants a weak dollar to make exports from the US to other countries cheaper.

Trump (or any other president) can't really decide the value of the dollar. The Chairman of the Federal resserve decides interest rates, which are probably the main factor in the strength of a currency, because they stimulate or reduce demand for that currency. Higher demand for a currency means 'price' goes up, price in this case being exchange rate. The dollar got stronger the day after election day and has kept getting stronger ever since because currency traders are effectively betting that the Fed won't be able to reduce interest rates as it had announced it would (I think they had pre-announced 3 or 4 rate cuts of .25% in 2025) because Trump's policies are inflationary. This was confirmed by the chairman of the Fed in his last policy meeting, as he changed his line from 3 or 4 cuts in 2025 to 'we need to wait and see the data from Trump's policies'.

Holidaymakers don't really get a say in all of this to be honest. There are trillions of dollars of debt to service, trade deficits and surpluses to think about plus lots of other stuff. Nobody really cares if Karen has to fork out a couple more cents for her pi?a colada in Cancun.

[Med Pie]

No! That's wrong!

Trump wants a weak dollar to make exports from the US to other countries cheaper.

Trump (or any other president) can't really decide the value of the dollar. The Chairman of the Federal resserve decides interest rates, which are probably the main factor in the strength of a currency, because they stimulate or reduce demand for that currency. Higher demand for a currency means 'price' goes up, price in this case being exchange rate. The dollar got stronger the day after election day and has kept getting stronger ever since because currency traders are effectively betting that the Fed won't be able to reduce interest rates as it had announced it would (I think they had pre-announced 3 or 4 rate cuts of .25% in 2025) because Trump's policies are inflationary. This was confirmed by the chairman of the Fed in his last policy meeting, as he changed his line from 3 or 4 cuts in 2025 to 'we need to wait and see the data from Trump's policies'.

Holidaymakers don't really get a say in all of this to be honest. There are trillions of dollars of debt to service, trade deficits and surpluses to think about plus lots of other stuff. Nobody really cares if Karen has to fork out a couple more cents for her pi?a colada in Cancun.

Sorry, got that backwards

[Lullapie]

No! That's wrong!

Trump wants a weak dollar to make exports from the US to other countries cheaper.

Trump (or any other president) can't really decide the value of the dollar. The Chairman of the Federal resserve decides interest rates, which are probably the main factor in the strength of a currency, because they stimulate or reduce demand for that currency. Higher demand for a currency means 'price' goes up, price in this case being exchange rate. The dollar got stronger the day after election day and has kept getting stronger ever since because currency traders are effectively betting that the Fed won't be able to reduce interest rates as it had announced it would (I think they had pre-announced 3 or 4 rate cuts of .25% in 2025) because Trump's policies are inflationary. This was confirmed by the chairman of the Fed in his last policy meeting, as he changed his line from 3 or 4 cuts in 2025 to 'we need to wait and see the data from Trump's policies'.

Holidaymakers don't really get a say in all of this to be honest. There are trillions of dollars of debt to service, trade deficits and surpluses to think about plus lots of other stuff. Nobody really cares if Karen has to fork out a couple more cents for her pi?a colada in Cancun.

If you think that those that run countries can't have any positive impact on the value of their currency, you are misguided. If Trump came out and announced a ceasefire in the Ukraine and Israel, you don't think the dollar would move?

If Trump banned Chinese imports into the US, you think that it wouldn't impact on the dollar?

The Board of Governors are under the control of the President, whoever he/she/them/they are - there's no true independence. Why do you think they dropped the rates just before the last US election?

[drillerpie]

Ok. Well, I tried! 🙂

[BigFatPie]

Ok. Well, I tried! 🙂

I tried to teach my dog Chinese, with similar results.

[Med Pie]

I tried to teach my dog Chinese, with similar results.

Don't despair, at least you manage to produce it fluently, post after derisive, post.