Clough

[magpie_mania]

Seeing that we're the biggest club in this division, by some distance in most cases, you'd imagine that Ardley would be more likely to get Notts promoted than relegated if he was given an indefinite amount of time. The chances that we are going to miss out in the play offs again are very high though. Failing repeatedly in the play offs is far from out of the question and there probably is a reasonable chance of an off season in which we'll struggle, not to the point of going down, but it would entail losing a lot of games and playing badly, with all of the frustration in the stands that goes with it.
The above would be true for any future Notts manager at this level because that's the nature of the division (in its' current set-up) but it's never going to be a good look repeatedly failing with the same man in charge. And anything less than promotion is failure for Notts in tier 5.

If the chance of missing out in the play-offs is very high, that is only your view. I think it's quite possible we will go up, but I think there is more possibility that the season will be expunged.

We keep reading that there are strict protocols in place, but frankly, I cannot see it. The goal celebrations are an example. I thought there was supposed to be no face to face celebrations (might be wrong) but that is out of the window watching this weekend.

It was reported that Sheff Weds have half their squad out - whatever are they doing still playing?

[upthemaggies]

If the chance of missing out in the play-offs is very high, that is only your view.

Statistically, it is very high compared to any other division we've been in. Attendances and resources should dictate that we're more likely than not to finish in the top 7, but there's only 1 automatic spot, which both last season and this we haven't been able to capture at any point in time, never mind when it most matters.

Once we're in the play offs..... once again, size of the club should give us a better chance in the play offs than 1 in 6, it's not the lottery that some insist it is, but over just 2 games there's more chance of an upset (for example big clubs are more likely to get knocked out of cup competitions in a single tie than over two legs and significantly more likely than in a round robin group stage) Success in play offs is far from certain, as we found to our cost last season. If it's a 1 in 3 chance of promotion, that's still a 66% chance of failure. 50/50 would assume you're 100% guaranteed to reach the final, which isn't reasonable (and that's assuming you finish top 3 to avoid the QFs).

I'm quite satisfied that it's an objective fact that there's a very high probability that we will fail in the play offs again, at least one more time before we go up.

[magpie_mania]

Statistically, it is very high compared to any other division we've been in. Attendances and resources should dictate that we're more likely than not to finish in the top 7, but there's only 1 automatic spot, which both last season and this we haven't been able to capture at any point in time, never mind when it most matters.

Once we're in the play offs..... once again, size of the club should give us a better chance in the play offs than 1 in 6, it's not the lottery that some insist it is, but over just 2 games there's more chance of an upset (for example big clubs are more likely to get knocked out of cup competitions in a single tie than over two legs and significantly more likely than in a round robin group stage) Success in play offs is far from certain, as we found to our cost last season. If it's a 1 in 3 chance of promotion, that's still a 66% chance of failure. 50/50 would assume you're 100% guaranteed to reach the final, which isn't reasonable (and that's assuming you finish top 3 to avoid the QFs).

I'm quite satisfied that it's an objective fact that there's a very high probability that we will fail in the play offs again, at least one more time before we go up.

Obviously it is quite a possibility that we would fail, but I think it wrong to say a very high probability. Have you taken into account how teams do if they failed the season previously? And of course a season like this, number of games called off, players ill is unprecedented, even compared to last season when the great majority of the season had been played. If we are able to continue, some teams may need to be playing 3 games a week to catch up, some might be unable to complete the season. Look at Dover, they have 8 games in 1 case to catch up and 7 on several teams. We haven't even hit the worse time for frozen pitches etc.

To me, 17 games postponed yesterday in the National Leagues (out of 30) and the general situation with Covid says that things are only going to get worse.

[upthemaggies]

Obviously it is quite a possibility that we would fail, but I think it wrong to say a very high probability. Have you taken into account how teams do if they failed the season previously? And of course a season like this, number of games called off, players ill is unprecedented, even compared to last season when the great majority of the season had been played. If we are able to continue, some teams may need to be playing 3 games a week to catch up, some might be unable to complete the season. Look at Dover, they have 8 games in 1 case to catch up and 7 on several teams. We haven't even hit the worse time for frozen pitches etc.

To me, 17 games postponed yesterday in the National Leagues (out of 30) and the general situation with Covid says that things are only going to get worse.

The difference between "Quite" and "Very" high would be entering into semantics, so we'd better stick to numbers.

On pure chance alone, it would be perfectly reasonable to suggest that if Notts were to play two play-off finals, the most likely outcome is that we'd win one and lose one, 50/50, so we'd win next time if we got there, therefore 0% chance of failure. The Problem is that you'd have apply the same logic to the semi-final. We won a semi-final last year, we'd have to play another semi-final this year and so the chances are we'd lose.

Football isn't a roll of the dice, but the outcome isn't decided subjectively by a panel of judges either. Success ultimately comes down to the rules of very basic math, a table of numbers or a final score, but there are inconsistencies, a team can be promoted one season with 90 points, another team with the same tally the following year can miss out. A play off final can literally come down to the outcome of a ball being in play for a matter of a few seconds between two men (sudden death penalties) rather than a final score decided over an hour and a half to two hours between 22 players.

A play off success following a play off failure might arise from a team being more determined and having a psychological edge over the other team that hasn't experienced a recent failure under the same circumstances. I'd guess it would be more likely a result of consistency in strength, one season to the next. That is to say, teams who reach play off finals tend to be among the better sides in their division and are likely to make repeat appearances. Lincoln and Exeter spring to mind as serial failures, Cambridge and Luton - both now back in the Football League - both lost successive finals before eventually working out how to go up automatically. Grimsby and Tranmere are examples of teams losing a play off final one year and going up the next, so it can be done but it's not a given.

So what are the chances in percentage terms of Notts losing in the play offs?
100%, 0% or any figures close to those numbers are not realistic.
50% sounds non-committal, sitting on the fence, indecisive, but it's not an unreasonable number and a good starting point. Factor in attendances, which is *roughly* as good an indicator as any as to where teams finish across the pyramid, we're clearly well above 50% likely to make the play offs, closer to 100% than 50%, so at least 76% chance of play off failure, but there is the possibility of winning the league and avoiding the playoffs, or winning the play offs, which would knock that figure back down, say half way between 50% and 76%, that would be 63%. Factor in where we are now - If this season concludes or we PPG, we're currently 6th on PPG, unlikely to finish 1st if we continue, could require hurdling a QF final as well SF, so back up a bit to 70%, but we could still win the play off final. A 66% chance of play off failure sounds reasonable to me, 63% for the start of next season before a ball is kicked.

If we're top, close to top or struggling then the figure goes down, but typically I think Notts are always going to be looking at around 63% chance of ending a season in play off failure at this level. Sounds very depressing, a 1 in 3 chance of going up sounds better but still not great when we ought to be in tier 3, but this is the National League I'm afraid. One automatic place sucks.

[magpie_mania]

The difference between "Quite" and "Very" high would be entering into semantics, so we'd better stick to numbers.

On pure chance alone, it would be perfectly reasonable to suggest that if Notts were to play two play-off finals, the most likely outcome is that we'd win one and lose one, 50/50, so we'd win next time if we got there, therefore 0% chance of failure. The Problem is that you'd have apply the same logic to the semi-final. We won a semi-final last year, we'd have to play another semi-final this year and so the chances are we'd lose.

Football isn't a roll of the dice, but the outcome isn't decided subjectively by a panel of judges either. Success ultimately comes down to the rules of very basic math, a table of numbers or a final score, but there are inconsistencies, a team can be promoted one season with 90 points, another team with the same tally the following year can miss out. A play off final can literally come down to the outcome of a ball being in play for a matter of a few seconds between two men (sudden death penalties) rather than a final score decided over an hour and a half to two hours between 22 players.

A play off success following a play off failure might arise from a team being more determined and having a psychological edge over the other team that hasn't experienced a recent failure under the same circumstances. I'd guess it would be more likely a result of consistency in strength, one season to the next. That is to say, teams who reach play off finals tend to be among the better sides in their division and are likely to make repeat appearances. Lincoln and Exeter spring to mind as serial failures, Cambridge and Luton - both now back in the Football League - both lost successive finals before eventually working out how to go up automatically. Grimsby and Tranmere are examples of teams losing a play off final one year and going up the next, so it can be done but it's not a given.

So what are the chances in percentage terms of Notts losing in the play offs?
100%, 0% or any figures close to those numbers are not realistic.
50% sounds non-committal, sitting on the fence, indecisive, but it's not an unreasonable number and a good starting point. Factor in attendances, which is *roughly* as good an indicator as any as to where teams finish across the pyramid, we're clearly well above 50% likely to make the play offs, closer to 100% than 50%, so at least 76% chance of play off failure, but there is the possibility of winning the league and avoiding the playoffs, or winning the play offs, which would knock that figure back down, say half way between 50% and 76%, that would be 63%. Factor in where we are now - If this season concludes or we PPG, we're currently 6th on PPG, unlikely to finish 1st if we continue, could require hurdling a QF final as well SF, so back up a bit to 70%, but we could still win the play off final. A 66% chance of play off failure sounds reasonable to me, 63% for the start of next season before a ball is kicked.

If we're top, close to top or struggling then the figure goes down, but typically I think Notts are always going to be looking at around 63% chance of ending a season in play off failure at this level. Sounds very depressing, a 1 in 3 chance of going up sounds better but still not great when we ought to be in tier 3, but this is the National League I'm afraid. One automatic place sucks.

It is impossible to be so accurate with stats when there are so many unknowns, especially this season.

But there is hope it you say we have a 1 in 3 chance of promotion. May 2022 and we will be back in the league. No need to change manager then.

[laddo]

Huh, so much for 'Open Season', if I'd posted an identical post to Jackal's, half a dozen would have come out of the woodwork with fire in their bellys#piedpiper

All of sudden people have lost their voices. Where are you all hiding?

Comparing Ardley's past accomplishments to Clough's??? He's got to be on the wind up hasn't he? Even I can't agree with that statement

[jackal2]

Huh, so much for 'Open Season', if I'd posted an identical post to Jackal's, half a dozen would have come out of the woodwork with fire in their bellys.

All of sudden people have lost their voices. Where are you all hiding?

Comparing Ardley's past accomplishments to Clough's??? He's got to be on the wind up hasn't he? Even I can't agree with that statement

I must admit when I opened the can of worms I didn't expect it to lead to an in-depth statistical review!

But with NCM you never know where it will take you!

[laddo]

As you saw I advertised it in the local press and sent out invites expecting floodgates to open and fireworks!!

As you say instead we got detailed sensible review from a couple of people. The invites must have got lost in the post.

"Strange things are afoot at the Circle-K"

[Kyle95]

I'm willing to bet you any stake you care to mention that won't be the case.

Over to you.

Good job i'm not a gambling man eh Elite. No in all seriousness, are you still adamant stags won't make the play offs at the end of the season?

[Elite_Pie]

Good job i'm not a gambling man eh Elite. No in all seriousness, are you still adamant stags won't make the play offs at the end of the season?

Adamant enough to bet you (or anyone else) any stake you care to name that the Stags won't make the playoffs.

Again, over to you.