Will SM take us to promotion?

[Mud Pie]

I don?t think that is too bad all things considered. Probably not quite good enough at the moment to get us into the playoffs.
If JJ is playing 90 minutes by the beginning of February, DC plays most games and we get someone else up top then I think we have a decent chance of promotion.

those 2 statements kind of contradict each other, and I'm not having a go at you, just saying that if there are any stats that can tell us the likelihood of SM getting promotion this season, then they have to take into account all the dynamic variables - all the differences between the data points, like what players he can pick, and how fit they are for eg.

Comparing SM with what Nolan did with his squad a few years ago is a poor indicator of what SM will do with his squad this season, imo, so what use is a flat comparison?

[1955pie]

That's exactly what it does, it's 4th tier results only.

Maybe I should have made that more clear. Allardyce doesn't average anywhere near that high, nor Ardley that low across different divisions, they are almost identical - Allardyce is at 1.50 at all levels, Ardley at 1.49. Howard Wilkinson is way down on 1.24. There's no value in making a comparison across all levels.

But you are showing SM as only on 1.24 when he is actually on 1.55. Of course after tomorrow it may only be 1.47.
28 points from 18 games. Something seems amiss here???

[upthemaggies]

But you are showing SM as only on 1.24 when he is actually on 1.55. Of course after tomorrow it may only be 1.47.
28 points from 18 games. Something seems amiss here???

Maynard's record as manager of Notts County is Pld:37 W:12 D:10 L:15, that's 46 points
46 divided by 37 gives you his PPG. 1.24

[BigFatPie]

Surely comparing any manager on ppg is invidious because they?ve all had to deal with varying levels of disruption within the club?

Maynard?s is better than a lot, but given that he?s working in a relatively well run and what most would consider a stable environment his performance is I would say much worse than most.

Also our home crowds are now about 50% bigger than when many of those others were managing so there?s that as well.

[bufordpie]

Sod the stats, we ain't going up under SM

[Boomerangpie]

And my head and a few others it seems

Upthemagpies is right it is a basic straightforward and as highlighted ultimately flawed table that compares PPG on managers at this level. It is no more no less than that.

What is more important and reflective is Maynard?s PPG this season. Not the games last season as they are gone, they don?t count. We weren?t going up last season regardless. What I am far bothered about is how many PPG he is getting this season. That will determine whether we gets promotion or not

[upthemaggies]

What I am far bothered about is how many PPG he is getting this season.

Right, so have we arrived at the point where his PPG is now set in stone at 1.56, a prediction based on his performance this season alone, or is it going to end up higher or lower on May 3rd because his experience, nous or lack of, is the sum total of more than this season alone... ie based on his PPG overall.

Does making a prediction that is based on including his navigating the business end of last season hold less value than making a prediction on this season's PPG alone which is massively inflated by a 4 game winning streak at the very start of this campaign, 3 of which were against sides currently 19th or lower.

[magpie_mania]

What this thread seems to show is that you can draw many different conclusions from statistics.

Back to the original question. Will SM take us to promotion. After the first few games when we were flying in the league, I really thought he would. I have changed my mind a little, but that does not mean that I think he should go - far from it.

I am now at the place of, 'He might take us to promotion'. I am amazed at where we are in the league based on our recent results but it shows I think how wide-open this league is. But, out of the teams currently occupying the top 7 places, we have won the least and drawn the most. Just 2 of those draws turned into wins would have us in the automatic places. That's where I see the biggest problem, just falling short, and for all our possession etc not having that bit extra.

However, we simply can't imo ignore the fact that we have been missing arguably our most creative players. That bit extra would have been achieved I think with JJ, DC available.

So, I have changed from 'He will' to 'He might' (and admit there are some mitigating reasons why we have fallen short). When we get them back, and have other players available, then I don't think there are any excuses. Play-offs would be a minimum, and if we can hold on in the next few games, them automatic shouldn't be written off. Whatever we think, the table doesn't lie and we are well within reach.

[durhampie]

To get promoted you need to average around 2 points per game. As it stands we are set to Finnish around mid-table.. That is just not good enough. You can throw in all the different scenarios and excuses, but at the end of the day we are falling way short of expectations. Managers survive on success, those who dont get the sack..

[durhampie]

Did they not go up via the playoffs?