O/T Labour

[forwardmagpie]

I don't think there's any conspiracy either.

But I also don't think that either Corbyn or May is going to get a deal that is acceptable to parliament... and both of them AND the public would rather cancel Brexit than have a no-deal Brexit.

So that leaves two choices - cancel Brexit via parliamentary vote or put it to another referendum. Either way it has to be done, but neither wants to be seen as initiating it. So we'll play chicken for a while. As I said before, the former is quicker and cheaper... but it depends on how much they want to try and placate people like Tricky... who can't really be placated anyways. Personally I'd waste as little time/money on them as possible, but that's just me.

Question Andy

Do you think in general large businesses are in favour of remaining in the EU?

[drillerpie]

I agree that this is confusion and uncertainty about the best way to leave rather than a crafty attempt to stay. If they were going to cancel the result they should have focused on campaign irregularities and such like but they're not doing that and cancelling Brexit by any other means would indeed be political suicide.

A second referendum, much to my displeasure, shouldn't really have the status quo on the ballot paper, it should have options from no deal to May's deal and a couple of options in between.

A second referendum with a choice of remain might well win but only by 50 something to 40 something, which means the country will still be split pretty much down the middle. If the polls started showing a large majority, say 65 / 35 or more in favour of remain you could conceivably do it, with a 2/3 majority needed to overturn the result, but that is not likely any time soon.

Apart from the fact that it's a very complicated question I think that the uncertainty is being fuelled by political considerations. Both major parties, like the country, are split and risk alienating voters if they take too radical a position. As MagpieTony said the other day, maybe parties need to reform along integrationist pro immigration / sovreignist anti immigration lines as the only parties with clear positions at the moment are UKIP and Lib Dems. Maybe the old fault lines of wealth distribution and monetary policy are becoming obsolete, who knows.

Anyway I would be wary of rushing into a no deal brexit and I wouldn't have any qualms about postponing the exit date. A planned no deal if it has to be no deal, has to be better than a botched no deal made up on the fly in 7 or 8 weeks. The exit date is pretty much the only strong card we have in a weak negotiating hand in my view.

[dam617]

And we all know how reliable they are
Seriously though a new vote would be won by remainers imo.
First I think a lot of people like myself who voted leave would boycott a second vote, the referendum was a one off once in a lifetime vote (or so we were told).
Secondly some will be scared by the remainers project fear mark 11, although I think some remainers who believe in democracy and are sick of the way the EU are acting would change their mind.
And third if it was true that the young voted remain then there will be many 16/17 year olds who weren't eligible to vote in 2016 will now have their say. Where as many older voters will have died or will be to Ill to vote now.

In your opinion a second referendum would be a Remain victory and you wouldn't be bothered to vote Leave again?
Self-fulfilling prophecy. Grow a pair.
Sounds like you're one of 'those' scared of Project Fear and have been listening to that cretin Polly Toynbee who is all in favour of 'dead Leave voters'.

[dam617]

I don't buy into this conspiracy theory that all along everything has been aimed at staying in. I know that May wanted to remain, but I believe she is committed to leaving, but not at any cost. Some leavers are taking the forecasts of what could happen if we leave with no deal and calling them 'Project Fear 2'. I don't believe there's a great conspiracy either in those making the forecasts. Many of them are experts who have done substantial research. There is a great amount of concern in many areas, yet those desperate for a 'hard' Brexit no deal just ignore it. And then if it all goes very wrong - who will get the blame? The remainers because it was their fault that no deal was done!

Where do I stand? I voted remain but acknowledge the vote and agree that we need to leave on 29th March. But, we need to leave on terms which will preserve the things TM has said she has done in her deal, so I would back it. However, if possible, the Irish border needs to be sorted.

A Remain voter wants us to, er, 'Leave' with May's Chequers deal and the 'Lock In' - as the Backstop should be really called- should 'possibly' be sorted.

Jesus wept.

They call us Leavers 'thick', you know.

[magpie_mania]

A Remain voter wants us to, er, 'Leave' with May's Chequers deal and the 'Lock In' - as the Backstop should be really called- should 'possibly' be sorted.

Jesus wept.

They call us Leavers 'thick', you know.

It's obvious what I mean - accept the deal but preferably with the Irish border situation sorted before 29th March. Is that too hard to understand?

Now, if I said I was a remainer and wanted a 2nd referendum, what would you have said? Surely as a remain voter I'm doing the right thing by respecting the vote and wanting to be out on 29th March?

[MagpieTony]

It's obvious what I mean - accept the deal but preferably with the Irish border situation sorted before 29th March. Is that too hard to understand?

Now, if I said I was a remainer and wanted a 2nd referendum, what would you have said? Surely as a remain voter I'm doing the right thing by respecting the vote and wanting to be out on 29th March?

I don't think the Irish border issue is a problem any more. it never actually was. Mr Barnier inadvertently let the cat out of the bag that there was already solutions in place to avoid a hard border in Ireland but if you rely solely on the BBC or the Guardian for your information then you may not be aware of this amongst many other things.

[dam617]

It's obvious what I mean - accept the deal but preferably with the Irish border situation sorted before 29th March. Is that too hard to understand?

Now, if I said I was a remainer and wanted a 2nd referendum, what would you have said? Surely as a remain voter I'm doing the right thing by respecting the vote and wanting to be out on 29th March?

Chequers is NOT 'leaving the EU'.
Chequers is NOT 'leaving'
Chequers is 'Remain'.


Arrrrrrrrghhhh. Can't you see this?!!!!!

[i961pie]

In your opinion a second referendum would be a Remain victory and you wouldn't be bothered to vote Leave again?
Self-fulfilling prophecy. Grow a pair.
Sounds like you're one of 'those' scared of Project Fear and have been listening to that cretin Polly Toynbee who is all in favour of 'dead Leave voters'.

Grow a pair????
What are you on about. I had a vote which I regard as the people's vote and it was in a once in a lifetime referendum.
I refuse to take part in a sham vote which I believe to be undemocratic. Project fear holds no fears for me and if you read my previous posts on the subject you would realise.

[BigFatPie]

I agree that this is confusion and uncertainty about the best way to leave rather than a crafty attempt to stay. If they were going to cancel the result they should have focused on campaign irregularities and such like but they're not doing that and cancelling Brexit by any other means would indeed be political suicide.

A second referendum, much to my displeasure, shouldn't really have the status quo on the ballot paper, it should have options from no deal to May's deal and a couple of options in between.

A second referendum with a choice of remain might well win but only by 50 something to 40 something, which means the country will still be split pretty much down the middle. If the polls started showing a large majority, say 65 / 35 or more in favour of remain you could conceivably do it, with a 2/3 majority needed to overturn the result, but that is not likely any time soon.

Apart from the fact that it's a very complicated question I think that the uncertainty is being fuelled by political considerations. Both major parties, like the country, are split and risk alienating voters if they take too radical a position. As MagpieTony said the other day, maybe parties need to reform along integrationist pro immigration / sovreignist anti immigration lines as the only parties with clear positions at the moment are UKIP and Lib Dems. Maybe the old fault lines of wealth distribution and monetary policy are becoming obsolete, who knows.

Anyway I would be wary of rushing into a no deal brexit and I wouldn't have any qualms about postponing the exit date. A planned no deal if it has to be no deal, has to be better than a botched no deal made up on the fly in 7 or 8 weeks. The exit date is pretty much the only strong card we have in a weak negotiating hand in my view.

Good post as usual Driller. I agree with you partially about the second referendum, there’s no result which will “unite” the country(whatever that means) but a result for remain will at least bring some certainty. It is, imo, the best of a very bad bunch of options. Any other outcome, from a delay(IF we get agreement from the EU), to May’s deal, to no deal will lead to many, many years of uncertainty, varying levels of economic difficulties, and ever more “division”. Obviously, all that stems from the original referendum result.

100% correct about party loyalties. I thought the Labour manifesto at the last election was great, but some of the moronic claims I’ve heard from people who I would normally consider to be on my side in the current debate have been astonishing. I like his policies, but I think Corbyn would be a very poor PM. Social media is making everyone more polarised.

[i961pie]

I voted Labour at the last election because Alex Norris lived locally and I thought he would be good for the area he knew, rather than the London based Tory candidate.
But the Labour manifesto was more like a Christmas wish list.