Points required update thread

[countygump]

Sums it up really.

We were relegated when we lost at home to Newport.

We’ve never looked the team we were for those 3 games since. And have consistently thrown away the points that would have saved us.

Absolutely no doubt in my mind that Ardley's caution and negative tactics??? have seen us lose our league standing. I notice AFC Wimbledon are doing better without him, they are now out of the relegation zone. It seems to me that all he wanted to do was avoid losing our league status at home and to take it to the last day. We were decent today and it's a crying shame he couldn't have been as positive a few games back when it really mattered. Only Alan could appoint a serial loser to get us out of the worst fix we have ever been in, grooaaannnnn.

[LaxtonLad]

If the game against Grimsby was a "must win" game, what does that make the game against Swindon?

[MAD_MAGPIE]

Date	Games Left	Requirement	Pts/Game	Target	Form this table
31/01/19	17	47	1.53	Morecambe
02/02/19	16	47	1.56	Morecambe	1.00
12/02/19	15	46	1.40	Morecambe	2.00
16/02/19	14	44	1.14	Yeovil	2.33
19/02/19	13	44	1.23	Yeovil	1.75
23/02/19	12	47	1.58	Port Vale	1.40
02/03/19	11	47	1.64	Port Vale	1.33
09/03/19	10	48	1.90	Yeovil	1.14
12/03/19	9	47	1.67	Yeovil	1.38
16/03/19	8	46	1.63	Yeovil	1.33
16/03/19	7	45	1.71	Yeovil	1.20
30/03/19	6	44	1.33	Yeovil	1.36
06/04/19	5	44	1.40	Yeovil	1.33
09/04/19	5	46	1.80	Macclesfield	1.33
13/04/19	4	45	2.00	Macclesfield	1.23
19/04/19	3	44	2.33	Macclesfield	1.14
22/04/19	2	44	3.00	Macclesfield	1.13
27/04/19	1	46	5.00	Macclesfield	1.25

Note: Points required -= 3rd from bottom rounded up + 1 for gd +1 for safety

So the above prediction is we would need 5 points from the last game. Well the options are:

Macclesfield finish on either: 43, 44, or 46
We finish on: 41, 42, or 44.
With the GD as it is then simply we must win and they must lose, and even 5 points for the last game doesn't guarantee it!!

The predictor has us down and that is how the odds look. Meanwhile NA can compliment himself on better than relegation form with his post transfer team despite numerous opportunities to have got us out of this mess and yet another late goal (even if not affecting anything) conceded.

Well we did what we needed to do and win today. The problem was Macclesfield won as well and it’s basically thrown the odds of survival massively in their favour. As many people were suspecting Yeovil have gone first.

So we know now the nine possible permutations. Only one of the nine will keep us up. If we win then it reduces the odds. I guess the one thing it does is put all the pressure on Macclesfield.

I’m still believing we can do it but as I said after Crawley it will take something very special. Our inability to close the two point gap since Macclesfield won their game in hand against Exeter could ultimately cost us.

Relegation
Notts W (44 pts) Macclesfield W (46 pts)
Notts W (44 pts) Macclesfield D (44 pts)
Notts D (42 pts) Macclesfield W (46 pts)
Notts D (42 pts) Macclesfield D (44 pts)
Notts D (42 pts) Macclesfield L (43 pts)
Notts L (41 pts) Macclesfield W (46 pts)
Notts L (41 pts ) Macclesfield D (44 pts)
Notts L (41 pts) Macclesfield L (43 pts)

Survival
Notts W (44 pts) Macclesfield L (43 pts)

[Elite_Pie]

So we know now the nine possible permutations. Only one of the nine will keep us up.

How wrong are you? If Macc draw and we beat Swindon by 9 clear goals we will survive.

OK, Mr Pedant hat removed. There is only one permutation that will keep us up.

[Elite_Pie]

How wrong are you? If Macc draw and we beat Swindon by 9 clear goals we will survive.

OK, Mr Pedant hat removed. There is only one permutation that will keep us up.

ps You got know and now wrong, so who nows?

[MagicBoots]

ps You got know and now wrong, so who nows?

It seems a tall order, but who knows. As stall pointed out after, our task is simple, win the game. For Macclesfield, they only need a point. If they go playing for a point and they set up that way, then who knows, can they defend for 90 minutes - well they are where they are and so it’s likely their defences will be breached, and if so, we all know how difficult it is to change from a defensive mindset to get back into a game. Also, adding to this, the way they were celebrating at Port Vale, it sounds like they believe they have already done the job. Cambridge are no pushovers, re the Bury result, and let’s face it, we had it down as an easy 3pts for us as well, yet they did the double over us!

I know it seems like a miracle is needed, but today’s results took Yeovil out the picture, so we just need to make certain of the win, then the possible outcomes does indeed reduce from 9 to 3.

[upthemaggies]

If we hadn't gifted Cambridge 6 points and won those two games we'd be safe right now and Cambridge would be in the bottom two needing to win at Macc to stay up.

They owe us one.

[Elite_Pie]

If we hadn't gifted Cambridge 6 points and won those two games we'd be safe right now and Cambridge would be in the bottom two needing to win at Macc to stay up.

They owe us one.

We've also had to suffer poetry from PSaw.

They owe us two.

[downunderpie]

My calculation is we need 6 points from the last game.

[downunderpie]

If the game against Grimsby was a "must win" game, what does that make the game against Swindon?

A bridge too far.