OT. Schools...normality and Coronavirus.

[ramAnag]

The economic recovery is not about profit per se, though that helps. Its about preventing huge numbers of non covid deaths due to under-resourced NHS and other public services, due to huge hits against the public purse in falling tax revenue of various shades.

Economy doesn't work, taxes fall, expenditure must fall as the magic money tree has no leaves left after covid support has taken them.

Those extra subsequent deaths won't be counted as Covid deaths, but they will be down to the inability to restart post covid initial waves.

Sure we can all hunker down for a other 3, 6 months sat at home watching netflix, whatever but one day the bullet will need to be bitten. In 6 months we would walk into a devastated environment with all public services being massacred, hyperinflation as money is printed to keep the basics going etc etc.

Economically we can no more let covid overwhelm us than we could let it overwhelm the NHS 9 weeks ago. We have to avoid cuts to the NHS in the future when tax take may be down 25%

Or to put it in teacherspeak, if future deaths don't get through to you, a 25% cut in education budget, the inevitable job losses, increase in class sizes, slash and burn of SNC budgets etc, reduced quality education for all

Why do you always have to do that, GP? You make a fair point and then make some silly ‘teacherspeak’ reference. Do you somehow think teachers are in some way ‘immune’ to all that’s going on. Would it be fair of me to say in ‘accountantspeak’ and then suggest you know the cost of everything but the value of nothing?

Where have I said we should all ‘hunker down for another 3 to 6 months sat at home watching Netflix’?
I want a return to work/normality as soon as it is SAFELY possible just as much as you. I haven’t put any sort of time frame on things but it won’t be possible for schools to return normally before September and I firmly believe that a reliable ‘test, track and trace’ system needs to be in place before any full return.

I can provide four scenarios to illustrate the point. The public school kids who are my near neighbours have now been told that they will not be returning to school until September but will have online lessons for the remainder of this term. My five year old Y1 grandchild is meant to be returning for a 50% timetable from June 2nd. My daughter is meant to be returning to work as a Y6 teacher working in Staffordshire on the same day and my grandchildren in the USA have been told, like the Scots, that there will be no return until next term.

Like the government you, Tricky and Swale seem to believe that there is a ‘magic date’ when the virus will have been overcome or the risk will have diminished to such an extent that everyone can return to school and work as normal.

There is, imo, no such thing. It will vary from country to country and region to region as I have described above, and it is best to let the experts within those countries and regions make the judgement call. I understand the economic argument but what could be worse than a second wave that starts the whole thing off again because we try and kick start things too quickly?

[MadAmster]

[QUOTE=ramAnag;39499140]Why do you always have to do that, GP? /QUOTE]

Oh, how I miss Roger Ramjet.

[swaledale]

Why do you always have to do that, GP? You make a fair point and then make some silly ‘teacherspeak’ reference. Do you somehow think teachers are in some way ‘immune’ to all that’s going on. Would it be fair of me to say in ‘accountantspeak’ and then suggest you know the cost of everything but the value of nothing?

Where have I said we should all ‘hunker down for another 3 to 6 months sat at home watching Netflix’?
I want a return to work/normality as soon as it is SAFELY possible just as much as you. I haven’t put any sort of time frame on things but it won’t be possible for schools to return normally before September and I firmly believe that a reliable ‘test, track and trace’ system needs to be in place before any full return.

I can provide four scenarios to illustrate the point. The public school kids who are my near neighbours have now been told that they will not be returning to school until September but will have online lessons for the remainder of this term. My five year old Y1 grandchild is meant to be returning for a 50% timetable from June 2nd. My daughter is meant to be returning to work as a Y6 teacher working in Staffordshire on the same day and my grandchildren in the USA have been told, like the Scots, that there will be no return until next term.

Like the government you, Tricky and Swale seem to believe that there is a ‘magic date’ when the virus will have been overcome or the risk will have diminished to such an extent that everyone can return to school and work as normal.

There is, imo, no such thing. It will vary from country to country and region to region as I have described above, and it is best to let the experts within those countries and regions make the judgement call. I understand the economic argument but what could be worse than a second wave that starts the whole thing off again because we try and kick start things too quickly?

Sorry RA you have completely misread and misinterpreted what I have said. because the exact opposite is true, there is NO magic date (barring a vaccine becoming available which is effective) that the virus will have been overcome. Its here to stay and as such those comfortably settled into their homes have to understand that
1) They will need to come out and resume life in as normal way as possible
2) That the risk of them (assuming they are not in an "at risk group") dying from Corvid-19 is remote and actually less likely than other risks which up until this pandemic I'd wager they never even thought about.
3) If we don't get the economy working again soon, then those 20,000 deaths as a result of the lock down which are not directly due to the virus will increase and more than likely outstrip those deaths from the virus.
4) Thousands of people from NHS staff care home staff, transport workers, supermarket staff etc have been working normally throughout this crisis and coming into contact with hundreds if not thousands of strangers every day and surprise surprise there has not be a huge number of deaths amongst those workers in percentage terms.
5) It simply isn't going to be possible and never has been possible to guarantee that life is safe, risks have to be managed and in a measured sensible way, admittedly society seems to think (when it suits it) that all risk of death can be avoided but in reality that s not true and we seem happy to drive in what are basically mobile bombs on our roads and accept the 6,000 plus casualties per year as an acceptable hazard and I could quote a fair few other things we do that could be easily avoided and actually reduce thousands of people dying every year, but which by and large we don't.

Italy which was very badly hit by the disease - largely it seems due to the high numbers of elderly people is now coming out of lock down, Denmark has got schools back up and running and Sweden and South Korea never had lock downs.

Its not simply the economy, its peoples lives, especially the younger generations who have had and will have their lives blighted by this approach, the cure will if continued be much worse and much longer lasting than the virus.

[ramAnag]

O

Sorry RA you have completely misread and misinterpreted what I have said. because the exact opposite is true, there is NO magic date (barring a vaccine becoming available which is effective) that the virus will have been overcome. Its here to stay and as such those comfortably settled into their homes have to understand that
1) They will need to come out and resume life in as normal way as possible
2) That the risk of them (assuming they are not in an "at risk group") dying from Corvid-19 is remote and actually less likely than other risks which up until this pandemic I'd wager they never even thought about.
3) If we don't get the economy working again soon, then those 20,000 deaths as a result of the lock down which are not directly due to the virus will increase and more than likely outstrip those deaths from the virus.
4) Thousands of people from NHS staff care home staff, transport workers, supermarket staff etc have been working normally throughout this crisis and coming into contact with hundreds if not thousands of strangers every day and surprise surprise there has not be a huge number of deaths amongst those workers in percentage terms.
5) It simply isn't going to be possible and never has been possible to guarantee that life is safe, risks have to be managed and in a measured sensible way, admittedly society seems to think (when it suits it) that all risk of death can be avoided but in reality that s not true and we seem happy to drive in what are basically mobile bombs on our roads and accept the 6,000 plus casualties per year as an acceptable hazard and I could quote a fair few other things we do that could be easily avoided and actually reduce thousands of people dying every year, but which by and large we don't.

Italy which was very badly hit by the disease - largely it seems due to the high numbers of elderly people is now coming out of lock down, Denmark has got schools back up and running and Sweden and South Korea never had lock downs.

Its not simply the economy, its peoples lives, especially the younger generations who have had and will have their lives blighted by this approach, the cure will if continued be much worse and much longer lasting than the virus.

1) I am not disputing that.
2) Which other risks? Actually dying from Covid isn’t the only concern.
3) I’m not sure what these 20,000 deaths ‘as a result of the lockdown’ are.
4) Yes, many people have not been affected, but 250,000 in this country have.
5) Of course life is full of risks, I totally accept that. The comparison with driving though is nonsense. Vehicles only become ‘mobile bombs’ when driven by idiots and you claim 6,000 casualties per year. You can add to that 1800 deaths per year, but it’s a great deal less than the 250,000 ‘casualties’/incidents and 35,000 deaths due to Covid-19 in the last two and a half months.

Italian Schools will not be reopening until September. Neither will many in the U.S. Scottish Schools will not be reopening until the new Autumn Term. Are they all wrong too?

[swaledale]

O

1) I am not disputing that.
2) Which other risks? Actually dying from Covid isn’t the only concern.
3) I’m not sure what these 20,000 deaths ‘as a result of the lockdown’ are.
4) Yes, many people have not been affected, but 250,000 in this country have.
5) Of course life is full of risks, I totally accept that. The comparison with driving though is nonsense. Vehicles only become ‘mobile bombs’ when driven by idiots and you claim 6,000 casualties per year. You can add to that 1800 deaths per year, but it’s a great deal less than the 250,000 ‘casualties’/incidents and 35,000 deaths due to Covid-19 in the last two and a half months.

Italian Schools will not be reopening until September. Neither will many in the U.S. Scottish Schools will not be reopening until the new Autumn Term. Are they all wrong too?

So RA if the car had been invented today, a missile full of explosive liquid under sole human control and reliant upon the sanity etc. of the person driving it, you think it would just be accepted?

Also those deaths and injuries are very year, indeed were at one time much higher than that, but we have through design of cars and roads reduced this. And to say that every accident is caused by idiots is to take a very superior approach to the issue, anybody can have an accident through no fault of themselves or anyone else, or it can be a momentary error, not recklessness!

Anyway my point was we accept the risk every time we get in the car personally a risk over which we only have a certain amount of control, its a risk which is similar to the virus, we can take some precautions, but there is much that we cannot control.

Yes there have been over 30,000 deaths from the virus but again it is clear who is most at risk, the average healthy person is no more at risk of injury/death from Covid-19 than driving a car.

The other risks which result in deaths that a large proportion of the population seem to ignore very day, are diet, smoking, air pollution, drugs, air travel, sports the list is endless - the information about diet is out there, yet we have a large proportion of the population who die earlier than expected due to poor diet, strokes, heart attacks, amputations etc etc.

You mention 250,000 cases, (in a population of £63 million I'm sure you can work out the percentages, the majority have had no ill effects, do a little research on other health issues that have devastating effects on people that occur very day all year every year, the numbers will astound you.

Lastly the excess deaths, are due to other health issues that have not been treated, diagnosed etc. due to the health service being overwhelmed , services not being available, again these are heavily weighted towards older people, BUT mental health issues strokes, cancer, have not been picked up or the people involved are not going to the DR/hospital either through fear of catching Covid-19 or just not being able to access the service. These deaths will rise and will undoubtedly outstrip deaths from Covid-19. Whats more there will be a long term impact affecting people for years.

I suspect the Government hasn't got the bottle to enforce a return to school, ironically as its the least risky option, but most people will have to get back to work alongside those who have had no choice but to work through anyway.

[Geoff Parkstone]

Why do you always have to do that, GP? You make a fair point and then make some silly ‘teacherspeak’ reference. Do you somehow think teachers are in some way ‘immune’ to all that’s going on. Would it be fair of me to say in ‘accountantspeak’ and then suggest you know the cost of everything but the value of nothing?

Where have I said we should all ‘hunker down for another 3 to 6 months sat at home watching Netflix’?
I want a return to work/normality as soon as it is SAFELY possible just as much as you. I haven’t put any sort of time frame on things but it won’t be possible for schools to return normally before September and I firmly believe that a reliable ‘test, track and trace’ system needs to be in place before any full return.

I can provide four scenarios to illustrate the point. The public school kids who are my near neighbours have now been told that they will not be returning to school until September but will have online lessons for the remainder of this term. My five year old Y1 grandchild is meant to be returning for a 50% timetable from June 2nd. My daughter is meant to be returning to work as a Y6 teacher working in Staffordshire on the same day and my grandchildren in the USA have been told, like the Scots, that there will be no return until next term.

Like the government you, Tricky and Swale seem to believe that there is a ‘magic date’ when the virus will have been overcome or the risk will have diminished to such an extent that everyone can return to school and work as normal.

There is, imo, no such thing. It will vary from country to country and region to region as I have described above, and it is best to let the experts within those countries and regions make the judgement call. I understand the economic argument but what could be worse than a second wave that starts the whole thing off again because we try and kick start things too quickly?

Where have I ever said you said about hunkering down for 3 or 6 months? Just because you are paranoid....

The final paragraph was designed to illustrate what the school budgets of 2021 might look like if we don't do something, not silly, fatuous or personal - making a point in how it could impact an area you know well.

Do I think teachers are immune.... No, but it seems to me that you do, in that many other key customer facing staff work in the shadow of covid risk, but you don't think teachers should.

You can use accountantspeak in that way if you want, your suggestion of "the cost of everything..." isn't far off correct. I take no umbrage.

I get that you have family possibly exposed to this risk, and it's not just the "old teacher objecting in principal syndrome" - not a quote - and dont deny there is a risk, but that risk has been assessed by those more able to assess it than either of us are: unless you believe that a generation are being thrown to the lions on the back of the toss of a coin or the whim of a minister.

But if not now, when? Why is 1/9 a magic number for you? . When will your fear of a backlash by covid go away? Why does "test track and trace" prevent anyone catching it? It wouldn't stop a asymptomatic carrier passing it on until it had run rampant for however long. TTR (appropriate initials) may help figure out how you died but its not much use to the dead person.

[ramAnag]

Where have I ever said you said about hunkering down for 3 or 6 months? Just because you are paranoid....

The final paragraph was designed to illustrate what the school budgets of 2021 might look like if we don't do something, not silly, fatuous or personal - making a point in how it could impact an area you know well.

Do I think teachers are immune.... No, but it seems to me that you do, in that many other key customer facing staff work in the shadow of covid risk, but you don't think teachers should.

You can use accountantspeak in that way if you want, your suggestion of "the cost of everything..." isn't far off correct. I take no umbrage.

I get that you have family possibly exposed to this risk, and it's not just the "old teacher objecting in principal syndrome" - not a quote - and dont deny there is a risk, but that risk has been assessed by those more able to assess it than either of us are: unless you believe that a generation are being thrown to the lions on the back of the toss of a coin or the whim of a minister.

But if not now, when? Why is 1/9 a magic number for you? . When will your fear of a backlash by covid go away? Why does "test track and trace" prevent anyone catching it? It wouldn't stop a asymptomatic carrier passing it on until it had run rampant for however long. TTR (appropriate initials) may help figure out how you died but its not much use to the dead person.

It’s really got nothing to do with my family situation. I’m just illustrating via them because I am obviously fully familiar with their situation.
I could equally have mentioned another teacher friend I was talking too last night. Secondary school English teacher who is due, and will, return to work the week after next. She is concerned that her classroom is significantly smaller than the majority and yet she is expected to ‘house’ the same number of pupils. I don’t blame her...she’ll do it, just as she has worked hard, mostly from home since lockdown, trying to provide kids with the education they need. Will I be even more emphatic in keeping my distance from her once she returns to work? To bloody right I will.

When will my fear of a Covid backlash go away? I don’t know. I still haven’t given up hope of travelling to Spain in September, but not by plane. I’ve got tickets to four theatre productions before then, I won’t be using them, and once my grandchildren have gone back to school I, sadly, won’t be rushing within two metres of them either.

It will probably dramatically reduce once I see some evidence from other countries and regions that the virus is under ‘control’. Contrary to your suggestion, Test, Track and Trace (not sure where you got ‘TTR’ from) will be crucial, and MA’s ‘small steps’, to which I’d add ‘regional’, equally so.

Knowing the ‘cost of everything and the value of nothing’ is not something to be proud of, imo.

[mistaram]

Yes I understand.
That is another issue reguarding hospitals that needs resolving. I still cannot for the life of me, understand why all the Covid they can, haven't been sent to the Nightingale hossies. As many COVID free hospitals as possible should have been prepared.

I have to run the gauntlet in a Sheffield hospital in July. I have no choice.
But the same replies to many long term ill. We cannot keep holding people away from treatment.
The Covid deaths, which to be fair are by far and wide older people. Will pale into nothing by comparison.
That isn't being harsh, just factual.

Tricky not sure that's fact I've just looked it up The average UK age do Covid deaths is 59yrs4mts that surprised me So must have been a lot of much younger deaths and I can't imagine younger people being in care homes

[Trickytreesreds]

Tricky not sure that's fact I've just looked it up The average UK age do Covid deaths is 59yrs4mts that surprised me So must have been a lot of much younger deaths and I can't imagine younger people being in care homes

Don't think you are correct. Wherever you got that from.
From the office of National statistics-

The rate of death due to COVID-19 increased significantly in each age group, starting from age 55 to 59 years in males and age 65 to 69 years in females; overall, one in five deaths were in age group 80 to 84 years.

[mistaram]

Well Denmark seems to show that this is the case, they have opened schools and no sign of infections rising.

Yes that's true at the moment. Interesting Italy and Spain two of the worst affected counties have shut theirs till Sept7th I see our government have decided to let each school decide . Let them take the blame if it all goes wrong