Sturgeonland

[InversneckieDob]

Well, I might well live to see that.

[TheDeeDon]

I suspect what will happen is that there will be a Westminster election Autumn 2024 where most SNP supporters will vote SNP as usual but a big enough minority will either not bother voting or will tactically vote Labour to kick out the Tories (remember the theme of the next WM election will be to ditch the Tories after 14 years, it won't be independence or indyref2). My guess at this time is the SNP goes from 48 MP's down to between 25-30 MP's.

I suspect that this result when combined with what will be a pretty rough time for Humza over the next year or so will result in him being challenged for the leadership (I presume you can do that under SNP rules), which he will lose to Kate Forbes as many less MSP's and therefore ultimately members will support Humza next time around as the continuity mantle will be poisoned by all of the stuff going around Sturgeon/Murrell. Forbes will be much more savvy next time around with regard to her religious beliefs. Plus the MSP's will have a genuine fear about losing their jobs in the Holyrood election in 2026 if Humza is still leader

Forbes will ditch the Greens and will focus the Government on areas/policies that will be of much more relevance to the mainstream voting public i.e. health/jobs/cost of living/poverty/education etc with much less focus on issues like GRR and general anti growth/business policies pushed by the Greens.

The 2026 election will then be fought on much more favourable grounds for the SNP, where the anti-Tory vote will not be relevant, the electorate will include 16/17 year olds, they will have a more likable leader and all of the current "stuff" impacting the SNP will be more of a distant memory. This will result in a return to a near SNP majority and would then be a springboard to be really pushing hard for a consistent majority in favour of independence via governing well in Scotland. Assuming Forbes can get a consistent 55-60% in favour of independence Starmer (PM by this time) will buckle and offer a referendum in the late 20's/early 30's as the "once in a generation" argument will cease to be relevant by then

As to what happens in this referendum (my guess is in the early 30's) will depend on whether the Scottish people hold their nerve this time around - I suspect they will and Kate Forbes will be the first Prime Minister in an independent Scotland around 2035 following a couple of years of negotiation post referendum victory.

I like the sound of that and don't think it will be far off the mark, although I still reckon between 2040/50 is best bet for a yes vote, but I'll take sometime in the 2030's.

[donsdaft]

Or we could just have Kate now, and leave out all the arsehöle Labour Party crap.

[InversneckieDob]

Or we could just have Kate now, and leave out all the arsehöle Labour Party crap.

What exactly fo you mean by "@rsehole Labour Party crap"?

Pretending to be "progressive" (sorry 57) whilst being pale blue tories to appeal to all the populist ignoramus types?

[donsdaft]

Pretending just about sums it up.

[InversneckieDob]

You don't think a government led by Kate Forbes would go down a similar road?

[donsdaft]

What, pretending to be anti European?

Nah.

[57vintage]

“The negotiation” referred to by RZ is the other massive stumbling block that I’ve referred to before, unless The Party finds a collection of capable, trusted, and experienced negotiators with the necessary knowledge and skills to deal with some fearsome big establishment beasts who will spot weakness and exploit it.

I don’t know where they’ll emerge from in the next decade, as it’s going to take a long time to weed out the current lead-swinging careerists, and more importantly the culture of cronyism that supports such a lackadaisical approach. There are few respected big beasts in The Party, which currently has the demeanour of a school debating society-cum-Rotary club, who have the necessary clout and knowledge to play the well-informed hardball necessary in any such negotiations.

“Ach, fûck it, it’ll be all right on the night and the fûcking English bástards will just roll over and cave in like the cûnts did at Flod… er Falkir…er… BANOCKBURN!” just won’t cut it.

[TheDeeDon]

“The negotiation” referred to by RZ is the other massive stumbling block that I’ve referred to before, unless The Party finds a collection of capable, trusted, and experienced negotiators with the necessary knowledge and skills to deal with some fearsome big establishment beasts who will spot weakness and exploit it.

I don’t know where they’ll emerge from in the next decade, as it’s going to take a long time to weed out the current lead-swinging careerists, and more importantly the culture of cronyism that supports such a lackadaisical approach. There are few respected big beasts in The Party, which currently has the demeanour of a school debating society-cum-Rotary club, who have the necessary clout and knowledge to play the well-informed hardball necessary in any such negotiations.

“Ach, fûck it, it’ll be all right on the night and the fûcking English bástards will just roll over and cave in like the cûnts did at Flod… er Falkir…er… BANOCKBURN!” just won’t cut it.

I'll accept what you write about the SNP. It is nearly impossible to argue, but...

Do you think our leaders down in London (the Tories) are doing a better job as a whole than what is happening up here?

[Donanddusted]

People wonder why a lot of the public are uninterested in politics:

Speaking to the Sunday Telegraph, Douglas Ross said "Where there is the strongest candidate to beat the SNP, you get behind that candidate."

We've nothing to offer you but don't let those *******s in.

"This is emphatically not the view of the Conservative Party," a Tory spokesperson said. [but we endorse the thinking behind it]