📈Form Table Thread

[Old_pie]

Attachment 14700

My statistics is very rusty but intuitively I've not been happy with the position chart because I don't believe that averaging the position is a correct way of representing the situation. Something niggles in my mind but it is from 55yrs ago. Anyhow, and apologies for lack of labels but Libre Office doesn't make it easy to copy/paste an image. Here I've attempted Trend lines (moving average and linear regression) which to me make more sense.

[MAD_MAGPIE]

[QUOTE=1955pie;39401352]

Form:
Yesterdays draw sees us move up a place in the last 6 form table to 5th coutesy of the draw replacing our last defeat. It continues to be tight around the play offs as Stockport, Boreham Wood and Harrogate continue good runs. Sutton Utd are still the form team having put 6 past Woking yesterday.

Attachment 14698

Points Needed:
PPG has dropped slightly to 1.53 which would realise 70pts by the end of the season. As we are currently in 7th place then 70pts is the predicted points for a play off place. Our target remains 75pts.

Predicted 3rd place has increased slightly to 79pts and predicted 1st has jumped to 88pts.


Great post ncfcog

I have been looking at your last 6 match form table and extrapolated them for the last few games of the season. I know it won't work like that because teams have to play each other and football is a funny old game but this is how it might turn out. (please don't pick me up on the decimal points)

1st Barrow 89
2nd Yeovil 87.8
3rd Harrogate 83
4th Stockport 81.8
5th Notts 79
6th Sutton Utd 78.6
7th Bromley 78.3
8th Boreham Wd 78
9th Barnet 73.8

Very, very close.. Goal difference could be crucial.

5th would mean Notts would have to win 1 home match + 1 away + the final.
3rd would be much better - win 1 at home + the final.

By my reckoning we still have to play Bromley, Harrogate and Yeovil (last match) at home.
And Barrow, Stockport and Barnet away.
To have a chance of that 3rd spot I think we have to win those home games and not lose the aways.

I hope I am wrong but with only around a third of the season remaining I think we have very little chance of finishing top.

I doubt you will be wrong 1955pie. Depending on how people look at it the uncomfortable truth for some supporters is that the chance for us to go up automatically are long gone and went some time ago. Only Yeovil stand a chance of getting back into the league at the first attempt.

You can’t have below average months like August and from the end of October to early December and expect to get promoted automatically. Automatic promotion relies on being consistent throughout the season and probably going on a five or six game winning run at some point. Even if we displayed automatic promotion form from now until the end of the season it would not be enough.

Barrow are on course to finish on 89 points. They have averaged just under 2 points a game (1.92 to be exact) over the entire season to date.

We have 18 games left so at the very best we could get another 36 points if we displayed the same form as Barrow from now until the end of the season. Whilst we have displayed better form in the last four games at 2.5 points a game matching Barrows 2 points per game would put us on 79 points as you have highlighted.

The best I think we can hope for now is playoffs. If we do really well from here on in then we might sneak 3rd place, but I think realistically it would be more 5th-7th at best based on our points per game across the season so far. This is our current position.

[ncfcog]

My statistics is very rusty but intuitively I've not been happy with the position chart because I don't believe that averaging the position is a correct way of representing the situation. Something niggles in my mind but it is from 55yrs ago. Anyhow, and apologies for lack of labels but Libre Office doesn't make it easy to copy/paste an image. Here I've attempted Trend lines (moving average and linear regression) which to me make more sense.

Firstly thanks for this OP. I really appreciate the contribution to the thread and you raise some good points.

When I started this I did consider linear and moving average but my concern with those is that they are just other ways of showing you where you are, although I agree the linear trend line shows a clear upward trajectory. By using a true average you get to see actually progression or indeed regression. In our case there has been a steady progression followed by a degree of sustainability which is promising. What’s clear from that is that our slow start has essentially done for us this season.

Our overall average position for the season so far is 12th. If you take the last 14 games of the 28 played our average position would be 9th. so there is definitely an improvement. We can go another step further and say if we continue to progress at that rate we could arguably finish 6th.

If I get time tomorrow I will do this exercise again but using the flat linear trend line and see where that predicts we will finish because you have now got me thinking again!

[ncfcog]

[QUOTE=MAD_MAGPIE;39401404]

I doubt you will be wrong 1955pie. Depending on how people look at it the uncomfortable truth for some supporters is that the chance for us to go up automatically are long gone and went some time ago. Only Yeovil stand a chance of getting back into the league at the first attempt.

You can’t have below average months like August and from the end of October to early December and expect to get promoted automatically. Automatic promotion relies on being consistent throughout the season and probably going on a five or six game winning run at some point. Even if we displayed automatic promotion form from now until the end of the season it would not be enough.

Barrow are on course to finish on 89 points. They have averaged just under 2 points a game (1.92 to be exact) over the entire season to date.

We have 18 games left so at the very best we could get another 36 points if we displayed the same form as Barrow from now until the end of the season. Whilst we have displayed better form in the last four games at 2.5 points a game matching Barrows 2 points per game would put us on 79 points as you have highlighted.

The best I think we can hope for now is playoffs. If we do really well from here on in then we might sneak 3rd place, but I think realistically it would be more 5th-7th at best based on our points per game across the season so far. This is our current position.

I think you are pretty much spot on MM. I think the best we can hope for is 5th, anything better will be a massive bonus! Likewise I think at worst we could finish circa 10th when you factor in the form of other clubs around us.

[queenslandpie]

The good news is that we arent going down which was still being mentioned 4 or 5 games ago! Winning the league aint gonna happen barring a major collapse from Barrow & Yeovil. Thats very unlikely. I think it will go to the last day with Yeovil hunting the title and Notts a play off spot with that last game and the playoffs is a complete lottery. Most importantly I want a strong last third so we are in a good position to puruse direct promotion from this division next season. I dont think we are good enough this year but I'd settle for a play off spot and at least some positive stuff.

[ncfcog]

Apologies, will post the charts later but currently out using my phone and need my laptop to post chart images properly. In the meantime all the usual info can be found here https://www.nottscountystats.com/pos...h-29-bromley-h

[ncfcog]

Charts etc as promised;









Note:
Since launching nottscountystats.com last week I have already received a considerable number of subscribers to the site which is fantastic. With this in mind it is only right that subscribers are given priority to any site updates etc. I will continue to post charts and stats on this forum but it will not include a full synopsis as this will be reserved for site subscribers.

For those of you that have shown an interest in this thread and contributed along the way I just want to say thank you and I hope you understand where I am coming from. You can of course subscribe to updates on the site here https://www.nottscountystats.com/

[magpie_mania]

[QUOTE=MAD_MAGPIE;39401404]

I doubt you will be wrong 1955pie. Depending on how people look at it the uncomfortable truth for some supporters is that the chance for us to go up automatically are long gone and went some time ago. Only Yeovil stand a chance of getting back into the league at the first attempt.

You can’t have below average months like August and from the end of October to early December and expect to get promoted automatically. Automatic promotion relies on being consistent throughout the season and probably going on a five or six game winning run at some point. Even if we displayed automatic promotion form from now until the end of the season it would not be enough.

Barrow are on course to finish on 89 points. They have averaged just under 2 points a game (1.92 to be exact) over the entire season to date.

We have 18 games left so at the very best we could get another 36 points if we displayed the same form as Barrow from now until the end of the season. Whilst we have displayed better form in the last four games at 2.5 points a game matching Barrows 2 points per game would put us on 79 points as you have highlighted.

The best I think we can hope for now is playoffs. If we do really well from here on in then we might sneak 3rd place, but I think realistically it would be more 5th-7th at best based on our points per game across the season so far. This is our current position.

Why base it on points per game over the season? We all know that we had to settle in and had a poor start. We have now settled down imo and are capable of beating anyone in this league. We are 9 points behind Barrow having played 1 game more, but we do have to play them (away I know). With 17 games to go there's all to play for and I really don't know why there isn't a chance they could still be caught by us. I hope that's how they are thinking though! You say we may sneak into 3rd place - we are 6 points behind with a game in hand - if we did that, it's certainly not 'sneaking in'.

[OP67]

Have Barrow had a bad spell yet? All teams have them. As for Yeovil they're only 6 points ahead and we have a game in hand and we play them at home the game of the season, should be tasty. I don't think we can be written off just yet. The last few games has shown the depth we heve in the squad and with the addition of Lacey we're looking good at the back now.

How far ahead were Rochdale in 09/10 season? Just saying

[SwalePie]

How far ahead were Rochdale in 09/10 season? Just saying

I seem to remember it was 14 points and they...um...err...'messed' it up