Number Of Points That It Takes In League Two, Based On The Last 10 Seasons

[_Stefan_Kuntz]

The average over the 10 years for 1 point more than 4th place would make 3rd place in each of those 10 seasons. Therefor 4th place plus 1 point in each season would be 3rd place in every season, so it would definitely be above 4th place in the 10 season average. Your 3rd place in the example is in that position through finishing an average of 1 point above 4th place over the 10 seasons.

Your example of an average over 10 years of using 1 point more than 4th place is invalid. In it the 4th paced figure should be 1 point less than 3rd, as in the figure for each season.

[griff]

I think Cayambe’s talking about an average season whereas your talking about each season as standalone.

[_Stefan_Kuntz]

But you get an average season by adding standalone seasons and dividing by the number of seasons, in my case using actual seasons that have occurred. Thus my logic applies.

[_Stefan_Kuntz]

If we take Cayambe's example to be of one individual season in the past, then yes 77 points would be the target for promotion if we take it as a template for a current season's aim. 3rd needed just 77 points not 80.
1 = 86
2 = 82
3 = 80
4= 76

If we take it as an averaged out accumulation of numerous past seasons then 77 points is again the average requirement that we aspire to reach.

This is the basis for my table. The correct basis for getting above 4th is to get 1 more point than 4th. To use 3rd in any way is to be in error because 3rd may be several points above 4th, thus the requirement has to be 1 point above 4th etc.
Cayambe's logic in using 3rd place is flawed because in his own example as shown above he would define the points needed to finish 3rd as 80 when clearly it is 77.

Conclusion :- Do not use 3rd, 7th or 22nd in these important promotion, Play-Off or relegation issues. Use 1 point more than 4th, 1 point more than 8th and 1 point more than 23rd.

[Blackdogblue]

Where do we end up please in ur cryptic method 🤷*♂️

[_Stefan_Kuntz]

______One more point than
Season 23rd_8th_4th
2012/13 52___68__77
2013/14 51___63__77
2014/15 42___69__85
2015/16 35___70__86
2016/17 47___70__78
2017/18 47___73__81
2018/19 42___71__77
2019/20 41___72__83
2020/21 46___72__79
2021/22 39___77__81
Average 44.2_70.5_80.4

BDB, You can see that in the last 10 years the average number of points needed to finish 1 point above 23rd is 44.2. In season 2021/22 Biffos finished on 38 points, hence 39 is the requirement if you want to base your hopes on last season's escape total.

The respective escape totals (1 point more than 23rd) starting 10 years ago to last season are 52, 51, 42, 35, 47, 47, 42, 41, 46 & 39.

[cayambe]

Well I still think your logic is flawed as interest is how many points are required to finish 3 rd (compared to the average of past seasons) which is independent of 4 th and does not need to consider goal difference. But at the end of the day it isn't important and lets hope this season turns into a very happy new year for all supporters

[_Stefan_Kuntz]

We know exactly how many points it takes to finish 3rd. It takes 1 more point than to finish 4th. What the 3rd placed team actually got is totally irrelevant. The issue is what it needed to get. This is the correct logic for each individual season and when the 10 seasons are added together and divided by 10.

Thus basing this on 1 more point than 4th is totally correct.

[cayambe]

We must agree to disagree

[_Stefan_Kuntz]

You can explain your method of calculating what it takes to finish 3rd in each individual season based on the last 10 years. Let's examine your method. By my method 1 point more than 4th is simply correct for individual seasons and for the 10 year average. You can explain your method. Merely opposing me is not good enough.