Mind boggling maths afnd scenarios or the run in...

[Brin]

When I'm watching a detective show I don't try and guess who the murderer is. I just sit back and enjoy the plot. It's a lot less effort.

Enjoy your tottie and sleep easy

[Nardendee]

The position as of now is :

Blackpool are relegated.

Wigan, although a point behind Blackpool have two games remaining ( Reading away and Rotherham at home) and have 40 points. They have a goal difference of -27.

Reading have 43 points with 2 games to play (Wigan home and Huddersfield away) and currently have a goal difference of -20.

Huddersfield have 44 points with 3 games to play (Cardiff away, Sheffield United home and Reading home) and currently have a goal difference of -19)

Rotherham have 46 points with 2 games to play (Middlesbrough home and Wigan away) and have a goal difference of -12.

QPR have 47 points with 2 games to
Play (Stoke away and Bristol City home) They have a goal difference of -26

Cardiff City have 49 points with 2 games to play ( Huddersfield home and Burnley away) and have a goal difference of -13

Who needs what:
Cardiff need a point. Technically they are safe now ( 6 points ahead of Reading and 7 goals difference to the good)
However, should they lose at home to Huddersfield, they then have to go to Burnley on the final day where they will be awarded the Championship trophy. If and it’s a big if, Reading win their games at home to Wigan and at Huddersfield it is technically possible for them to finish above Cardiff with a goal swing, which could happen. This is good as Cardiff will have an incentive to avoid defeat against Huddersfield should Reading beat Wigan.

Even if Huddersfield lost their last game they could, in theory already be safe by winning at Cardiff and at home to Sheffield United which would put them on 50 points.

We (Rotherham) need 1 win to get to 49 points and that should be enough given our goal difference no matter what other results are.

We could go into the game v Middlesbrough
positioned as follows:

Possibly a point or two in front of Huddersfield or possibly a point behind depending on their result at Cardiff.
Possibly being unable to be caught by Wigan if they don’t win at Reading. Should Wigan win at Reading they will be three points behind us, so a draw at home to Boro would mean Wigan couldn’t catch us, but a loss to Boro means that Rotherham would need to avoid dropping a nett goal difference of -15 less our margin of defeat v Boro and Wigans margin of victory at Reading. In reality if we lost 2-0 and Wigan won 2-0 v Boro and Reading, Wigan would need to beat us by 6 clear goals.

After Saturday, Reading will either be on 43, 44 or 46 points. 43 means Wigan will have won so Reading could only get 46 pts if they won at Huddersfield. They could still overhaul us on this total if we get well beaten in our last 2 games although this would require a major collapse from us. If Reading are on 44 points, that means Wigan will be down but victory at Huddersfield means Reading could end up on 47 points.
A win for Reading would put them level with us with a worse goal differential than us of 6 or less depending on how many they win by.

QPR will be safe if they win at Stoke or if Reading lose. Any other result and they will still be in the last day scenario needing something against Bristol City.

Scenarios that would best suit us this weekend going into the Boro game:

Wigan win at Reading means we are safe unless we have catastrophic last 2 results resulting in a 15 goal swing. If that happens we won’t deserve to stay up.

Reading draw or win means Wigan are down which in theory gives us a good shot of winning there in the last game as they would have nothing to play for.

The ideal scenario would be for Cardiff to beat Huddersfield, as Hudds would then have to beat Sheffield United to be ahead of us if we lose to Boro.

If somehow Huddersfield and Reading can both be behind us by next Thursday evening by a single point each we would be safe unless we got hammered in our last game.

Pretty straight forward really. We will either stay up or go down.

[rolymiller]

...and i thought my post was mind boggling!😆One thing is for sure things should be a lot clearer by the time we play boro. The simple thing is we beat boro and we should be ok. Never been eo interested in others results tho. Im a latic today but only for a narrow win

[Jimmy Badfellow]

Having never occupied the bottom 3 all season lets hope we don't catch the Relegation Bus with Blackpool and Wigan just before it pulls out of the station. ''The drivers just waiting for Rotherham,then we'll be off!''

[Brin]

Halftime at Reading and 0-0 so they move a point closer to us.

I've looked into my crystal ball and it's not looking good. We lose at home to Boro 0-2 and away at Wigan only by 1-0.

All is not lost though as Huddersfield draw at Cardiff (no goal difference advantage gained on us), they then lose at home Sheff Utd 0-1 so drop another goal difference, then they draw their final game at home to Reading.

Outcome is Huddersfield and us both finish on 46 points but we stay up by a 5 goal difference.

[wrinkly]

Halftime at Reading and 0-0 so they move a point closer to us.

I've looked into my crystal ball and it's not looking good. We lose at home to Boro 0-2 and away at Wigan only by 1-0.

All is not lost though as Huddersfield draw at Cardiff (no goal difference advantage gained on us), they then lose at home Sheff Utd 0-1 so drop another goal difference, then they draw their final game at home to Reading.

Outcome is Huddersfield and us both finish on 46 points but we stay up by a 5 goal difference.

If they draw their final game at home to Reading then Reading would only have 45 points. We already have 46. GD wouldn't matter.

[gru]

Cardiff beat Huddersfield tomorrow we can't go down. Against Bora no weak links defend our goal difference if needed. 4-5-1

Victor

Harding Humphreys Wood Leo

Chieo Lindsay Odoffin Rathbone Ferguson or Bramall

Hugill

[Brin]

Cardiff beat Huddersfield tomorrow we can't go down. Against Bora no weak links defend our goal difference if needed. 4-5-1

Victor

Harding Humphreys Wood Leo

Chieo Lindsay Odoffin Rathbone Ferguson or Bramall

Hugill

gru, of course we can still go down. If Hudders get 1 win out of their last 3 games and we get a big hammering on Monday and lose at Wigan ( all of this could happen) then we will be in the s.hite if Reading beat Hudders. It's not over at all. Just get one more point OURSELVES and we are 100% safe.

[rolymiller]

Right a bit more simple now but not a lot!

2 teams down 1 to go.

If we beat Boro or Wigan job done,

If we draw with either, job done assuming we dont get thrashed in other game

Belt and braces scenario if we lose both. Its important Udders are catchable by Reading at least by the time they play them last game of the season because Udders will need at least a point off them to stay up. If they are guaranteed safe by the time they play reading, they may well not take the game v seriously. With this in mind it is important they dont get more than 3 points in next 2 games against Cardiff A and Blunts at home. Bear in mind neither of these have owt to play for . So a big game tomoz for us. If Cardiff beat Udders, no matter what they do against blunts, they will still have summat to play for against Reading which is good for us.

So if Cardiff beat Udders tomoz or failing that Blunts do this will give us a better chance of survival and less chance of things going tits up.

So come on the bluebirds tomorrow.

I still would not swap our position with reading. Its up to us not to co ck it up plus the blunts and Colin can do us a big favour

[mellowmiller]

Cardiff beat Huddersfield tomorrow we can't go down. Against Bora no weak links defend our goal difference if needed. 4-5-1

Victor

Harding Humphreys Wood Leo

Chieo Lindsay Odoffin Rathbone Ferguson or Bramall

Hugill

Have you got something in your magic eye again?