Run-In Confidence

[Boomerangpie]

I also do not believe Maynard is good enough to get us promoted with the squad he?s had available. A largely fit squad all season and I believe his Plan A is good enough but with absentees Plan A is not effective enough.

But as Notts fans we are used to our head coaches and managers not being good enough for promotion.

[marky]

I can see us scraping a win at Newport who aren't very good and have nothing to play for. I really can't see us getting anything at Bradford and I think we'll probably draw with Doncaster. Not sure about the others it depends if we can get these players back.

[maddogslater]

We play with what we have, if Jones or Austin come back soon they're both going to be rusty.
I just can't see us bombing on, the Grimsby game was another false dawn, I'm afraid it's on Maynard, look how many 1st choice chesterfield had out and they beat us through sheer determination and hard work.

[upthemaggies]

1st WALSALL 70pts
Sat.29.Mar WIMBLEDON (3rd)
Tue.01.Apr doncaster rov (5th)
Sat.05.Apr PORT VALE (4th)
Sat.12.Apr barrow (17th)
Fri.18.Apr HARROGATE T. (21st)
Mon.21.Apr newport co. (16th)
Sat.26.Apr ACCRINGTON S. (20th)
Sat.03.May crewe alex. (9th)

Average position of opponents: 12th
Maximum points: 94

2nd BRADFORD CITY 69pts
Sat.29.Mar accrington s. (20th)
Tue.01.Apr port vale (4th)
Sat.05.Apr CREWE ALEX. (9th)
Sat.12.Apr swindon town (15th)
Thu.17.Apr NOTTS COUNTY (6th)
Mon.21.Apr chesterfield (11th)
Sat.26.Apr doncaster rov (5th)
Sat.03.May FLEETWOOD T. (13th)

Average position of opponents: 10th
Maximum points: 93

3rd WIMBLEDON 64pts
Sat.29.Mar walsall (1st)
Tue.01.Apr swindon town (15th)
Sat.05.Apr HARROGATE T. (21st)
Sat.12.Apr doncaster rov (5th)
Fri.18.Apr CHESTERFIELD (11th)
Mon.21.Apr gillingham (19th)
Sat.26.Apr PORT VALE (4th)
Sat.03.May grimsby town (7th)

Average position of opponents: 10th
Maximum points: 88

4th PORT VALE 64pts
Tue.25.Mar BARROW (17th)
Sat.29.Mar crewe alex. (9th)
Tue.01.Apr BRADFORD CITY (2nd)
Sat.05.Apr walsall (1st)
Sat.12.Apr BROMLEY (12th)
Fri.18.Apr carlisle utd (24th)
Mon.21.Apr GRIMSBY TOWN (7th)
Sat.26.Apr wimbledon (3rd)
Sat.03.May GILLINGHAM (19th)

Average position of opponents: 10th
Maximum points: 91

5th DONCASTER ROV 63pts
Sat.29.Mar CARLISLE UTD (24th)
Tue.01.Apr WALSALL (1st)
Sat.05.Apr cheltenham t. (14th)
Sat.12.Apr WIMBLEDON (3rd)
Tue.15.Apr salford city (10th)
Fri.18.Apr tranmere rov (22nd)
Mon.21.Apr COLCHESTER U. (8th)
Sat.26.Apr BRADFORD CITY (2nd)
Sat.03.May notts county (6th)

Average position of opponents: 10th
Maximum points: 90

6th NOTTS COUNTY 62pts
Sat.29.Mar newport co. (16th)
Wed.02.Apr MILTON KEYNES (18th)
Sat.05.Apr colchester u. (8th)
Fri.11.Apr SALFORD CITY (10th)
Thu.17.Apr bradford city (2nd)
Mon.21.Apr CHELTENHAM T. (14th)
Sat.26.Apr harrogate t. (21st)
Sat.03.May DONCASTER ROV (5th)

Average position of opponents: 12th
Maximum points: 86

7th GRIMSBY TOWN 59pts
Fri.28.Mar colchester u. (8th)
Tue.01.Apr crewe alex. (9th)
Sat.05.Apr MORECAMBE (23rd)
Sat.12.Apr harrogate t. (21st)
Fri.18.Apr SWINDON TOWN (15th)
Mon.21.Apr port vale (4th)
Sat.26.Apr milton keynes (18th)
Sat.03.May WIMBLEDON (3rd)

Average position of opponents: 13th
Maximum points: 83

8th COLCHESTER U. 58pts
Fri.28.Mar GRIMSBY TOWN (7th)
Tue.01.Apr gillingham (19th)
Sat.05.Apr NOTTS COUNTY (6th)
Sat.12.Apr newport co. (16th)
Fri.18.Apr CREWE ALEX. (9th)
Mon.21.Apr doncaster rov (5th)
Sat.26.Apr salford city (10th)
Sat.03.May BARROW (17th)

Average position of opponents: 11th
Maximum points: 82

9th CREWE ALEX. 58pts
Sat.29.Mar PORT VALE (4th)
Tue.01.Apr GRIMSBY TOWN (7th)
Sat.05.Apr bradford city (2nd)
Sat.12.Apr CHELTENHAM T. (14th)
Fri.18.Apr colchester u. (8th)
Mon.21.Apr MILTON KEYNES (18th)
Sat.26.Apr tranmere rov (22nd)
Sat.03.May WALSALL (1st)

Average position of opponents: 10th
Maximum points: 82

[i961pie]

I think to many fans are relying on JJ coming straight back and hitting top form? The last time he came back from injury he was a shadow of his former self in the few games he played.

[1955pie]

78 pts is the lowest anybody has got auto promoted with from tier 4 this century (the cut short lockdown season aside).
Notts could reach that tally with as few as 4 more wins if all the other 4 are drawn.

I suppose there is a decent case to be made that if any season is going to be the one to break the 21st century record with somebody grabbing 3rd with less than 78 points, it's this one, but the current projected requirement is 80, so - as we stand - you've got to be aiming for that to be in with a decent shout, which means 5 wins, 3 draws, 0 defeats.... or with 6 wins you can get to 80 affording to lose twice more.

As Notts have only won 2 of the last 9, winning 5 or 6 of the final 8 looks like a big ask. We're also on the brink of equalling or outdoing the worst 10 game run of the season that saw us drop from 2nd to 11th if we don't win at Newport.

Interesting point about 78 points UTM.
But what is the lowest points total for the 4th place team? That is the one we have to beat.

[1955pie]

And what is the lowest number of points achieved by the play off winners please?

[1955pie]

Talking about about the unpredictability of League 2 this season.
Looking at the last 3 games only for the top 9 clubs.
Only Port Vale and Colchester have more points than us : 6
We are joint 3rd with Wimbledon on : 4
I bet other clubs fans are raking over their frustrations just the same as us.

We really need Barrow to maintain their 4 game mini-revival (8 points) tomorrow night at Port Vale. I am not too hopeful but it will be game on if they do.

[Boomerangpie]

We play with what we have, if Jones or Austin come back soon they're both going to be rusty.
I just can't see us bombing on, the Grimsby game was another false dawn, I'm afraid it's on Maynard, look how many 1st choice chesterfield had out and they beat us through sheer determination and hard work.

They beat us but are also 10 points behind us down in 11th. So even with an experienced previously successful capable manager in charge they too have struggled (more than us) having also been shafted by injuries all season long

[upthemaggies]

Interesting point about 78 points UTM.
But what is the lowest points total for the 4th place team? That is the one we have to beat.

Morecambe finished 4th with 73 points in 2009/10, since then 76 is the lowest.

Lincoln got into the play offs with only 66 points in 2006.

Curiously, only one team finishing 4th at this level in the last decade has gone on to win the play offs, the 7th placed team has gone up four times since 2015, the 6th placed team twice.

The bad news regards play offs though is, since Coventry went up from this level in 2018, no play off winner has finished higher than 18th following promotion to tier 3 and if Crawley are relegated (highly likely) then 4 of the last 6 play off winners will have come straight back down.