O/T DDay for Brexit..well sort of...

[KerrAvon]

So the only way to stop it would be all anti no deal mps voting no confidence and for a GE? You think that might happen in those circumstances?

If there were a General Election and the make up of the new Parliament was pro-Remain then, yes, Brexit could be stopped in that way.

The first issue is whether Parliament would support a vote of no confidence introduced by Corbyn, given that it is highly unlikely that the government would introduce a motion to call a GE.

Labour faces a problem in that the nature of their support is not uniform across the country – a Tory voter in Guildford would hold similar views to one in Gateshead (although the latter might be a bit lonely), whereas I suspect that the view from Labour supporters on Brexit would differ markedly between ‘traditional’ Labour in the North and the more outward looking and socially liberal party in London (note the difference in stance between you and animal on the subject). It is inconceivable that Labour could go into a GE without indicating their exact and detailed position on Brexit. Assuming that they followed the logic of the polling data and expressly adopted a Remain stance what that means is that Labour is likely to find suffer significant losses outside London.

In other words, I think Labour would think twice before attempting another vote of no confidence.

If there were a vote of no confidence, how would it go? The Tories know that they will be annihilated if they go into a GE without delivering Brexit, which would cause even the most Remain inclined Tory MP to think very carefully before voting against the government. It would be tantamount to an act of resignation (as it is, I think a couple of Tories will resign the whip if an ultra Hard Brexiteer takes the leadership). Remainer Tories would also have to weigh up the possible consequences of bringing the government down. They fear the economic damage that Brexit will cause, but they also fear that a Corbyn led government would cause substantial damage. The DUP would vote with the government both because they are hard Brexiteers and that they too would not want Corbyn near No. 10 given his and his top table’s support for the Republican cause.

The second issue is whether a new Parliament would hold a Remain majority. It is far from clear that would be the case.

The best opportunity for an orderly Brexit was May’s deal, but the moment for that has probably passed. What happens next will be influenced to a significant degree by who gets the Tory leadership. Johnson is not the right wing bogey man that some people seem to think. There are far more 'problematic' candidates in the running. The real problem though is that nobody is in control any more.

[howdydoo]

If a GE was called tomorrow, a 40/45% vote for Brexit would command a 100+ seat majority in the house of commons.

Last week, Labour strongholds like Rotherham and Doncaster showed a 50%+ vote in favour of Brexit parties.

Maybe the protest voters will revert and vote as always.

I’m not convinced.

People are ****ed off with it all and Farage knows it. LAB, CON and the LIBS are playing into his hands.

If we’re in Europe in 30 years time, so be it. I’d suggest a deal (whatever that is) to exit is done first.

That 2016 vote needs to be honoured.

[Exiletyke]

If a GE was called tomorrow, a 40/45% vote for Brexit would command a 100+ seat majority in the house of commons.

Last week, Labour strongholds like Rotherham and Doncaster showed a 50%+ vote in favour of Brexit parties.

Maybe the protest voters will revert and vote as always.

I’m not convinced.

People are ****ed off with it all and Farage knows it. LAB, CON and the LIBS are playing into his hands.

If we’re in Europe in 30 years time, so be it. I’d suggest a deal (whatever that is) to exit is done first.

That 2016 vote needs to be honoured.

Correct

[KerrAvon]

It's very hard to predict how people would vote. As I mentioned yesterday, UKIP polled 27% in the 2014 Euro elections, but gained only a single seat in the 2015 GE. I don't think the backslide would be anywhere near as great if there were a GE in the near future, but history says that people do love a protest vote in elections that they don't think matter very much and then revert to type in GEs.

I agree that the 2016 result has to be honoured.

[BigLadonOS]

It's very hard to predict how people would vote. As I mentioned yesterday, UKIP polled 27% in the 2014 Euro elections, but gained only a single seat in the 2015 GE. I don't think the backslide would be anywhere near as great if there were a GE in the near future, but history says that people do love a protest vote in elections that they don't think matter very much and then revert to type in GEs.

I agree that the 2016 result has to be honoured.

A lot has changed since the last GE and more people than ever are fecked off with what the so called big 2 parties are doing right now. The mood of the masses has changed but both the Conservatives and Labour are failing to see it.

A GE say in September early October would see a totally different outcome for parties that did well in EU elections this time round.

[BigLadonOS]

PMSL. Infighting already breaking out inside the EU headquarters after the EU elections Merkel and Macron having a little fallout.

Merkel wants fellow German (Another German eh!) Manfred Weber as the next EU Commission president but Macron does not want him even in the running. Click Link.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48431083

[KerrAvon]

A lot has changed since the last GE and more people than ever are fecked off with what the so called big 2 parties are doing right now. The mood of the masses has changed but both the Conservatives and Labour are failing to see it.

A GE say in September early October would see a totally different outcome for parties that did well in EU elections this time round.

A GE is an entirely different beast to a Euro election.

I think most people who voted last Thursday would have had their minds only on Brexit. They were helped in that by the parties, who only really spoke about Brexit. In a GE voters will want to know more about what the parties who want their vote stand for. What is the Brexit Party position on the NHS or the welfare state generally? Where do they stand on personal and corporate taxation levels, on the ownership of the utilities, on climate change, immigration, tuition fees or a host of other things that people care about? People would want to know these things before giving Farage the keys to No. 10.

As an example and an indication of Farage’s mindset, UKIP under his leadership toyed with a flat level of income tax - i.e. one rate irrespective of income - someone earning £20k pa paying the same rate as someone on £60k or £2m pa. He wouldn't be so daft as to propose it again, but it tells you something about where his politics are at.

I speak from personal experience. I voted for a party in the Euros that I might possibly vote for in a GE, but certainly wouldn't do until I researched their current policies in a good deal of detail.

[KerrAvon]

PMSL. Infighting already breaking out inside the EU headquarters after the EU elections Merkel and Macron having a little fallout.

Merkel wants fellow German (Another German eh!) Manfred Weber as the next EU Commission president but Macron does not want him even in the running. Click Link.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48431083

You should be a headline writer for The Sun. Where is the infighting? Macron and Merkel favouring different candidates is hardly unexpected.

Weber would be a good outcome. He is an unashamed Anglophile.

[animallittle3]

Remarkable how nobody outs Australia as a backward , insular country full of xenophobic little Australians .

The country only exists because of immigration and is a desirable location too .

They closed their open door policy years ago and replaced them with some very robust immigration controls .

They have problems don't get me wrong but seem to do alright .

[WanChaiMiller]

Remarkable how nobody outs Australia as a backward , insular country full of xenophobic little Australians .

The country only exists because of immigration and is a desirable location too .

They closed their open door policy years ago and replaced them with some very robust immigration controls .

They have problems don't get me wrong but seem to do alright .

Australia still have Aboriginals confined to compounds in the most inhospitable parts of the country. They never had an open door policy. Up until 1980 it was a white only immigration policy.