This insanity is endless...

[sinkov]

"Lockdown started in the UK on 23rd March. The deaths reached their peak on 21st April (1166). That is about a 4 week lag before the restrictions started showing an effect."

I don't know if you're just making those numbers up 59, or getting them from some lefty Fake News source. Here are the official government figures, (check them here for yourself https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/) which show quite clearly the number of deaths peaking on April 8th.

Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date of death

April 5th 829
April 6th 805
April 7th 910
April 8th 975
April 9th 874
April 10th 850
April 11th 861
April 12th 857

And they continued falling consistently afterwards. I'm surprised you didn't know this 59, the graph showing the falling death rate from 8th April onwards was shown in every 5pm TV press briefing for three months, but strangely no one in the media picked up on it. One or two people did, but they weren't the sort of people who had their views reported on the BBC, or in the pages of the Guardian, so you wouldn't have been alerted to it, but it was in full view for those who cared to look, and the figures are still there on the GOV.UK website.

What is noticeable is that the death rate had only the one change, it goes up fairly consistently to April 8th, then it goes down consistently, and that change co-incides roughly with the onset of voluntary social distancing a month before, about two weeks before the official lockdown. It was around a month before April 8th that Mrs S told me we weren't going out, no more supermarket shopping, no more footy, no horse racing, her art and dance classes closed voluntarliy, as did local cinemas and theatres. If you look at the data around April 23rd, if the lockdown had had any effect, there should have been an acceleration in the falling death rate, there wasn't, it continued falling as consistently as before, as though the lockdown had never happened.

"To my way of thinking, if people are packed in bars, clubs, footy stadiums etc then they will catch any virus much more easily than if they kept away from each other???"

Agreed 59, but again it's another of your straw man arguments, no one is suggesting packing anyone into anywhere, you can get several thousand fans into any football stadium and a safe distance from each other, same with racecourses, which are basically huge wide open fields. I've been to several games recently at Clitheroe and one at Warrington, numbers are restricted, temperature taken on entry plus name and phone number, hand sanitisor used. So far I have not been contacted by either club, so the events must have passed off safely. Since July 4th we must have eaten out at least 50/60 times in various pubs, cafes and restaurants all over the north of England, name and phone number given at each and every one, we have not been contacted yet, so clearly eating out is not causing a surge in infections.

"As for the situation today, even under Tier 3 restrictions things are much more relaxed now than they were back then. We are in nothing like the same level of lockdown when we were told to stay at home etc. The Government are now trying to control the virus and keep the economy strong....and achieving neither."

Yes I agree with that, although 'keeping the economy strong' is a bit fanciful, the economy is total wreckage, and total lockdown would annihilate it, and still not eradicate the virus.

[1959_60]

"Lockdown started in the UK on 23rd March. The deaths reached their peak on 21st April (1166). That is about a 4 week lag before the restrictions started showing an effect."

I don't know if you're just making those numbers up 59, or getting them from some lefty Fake News source. Here are the official government figures, (check them here for yourself https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/) which show quite clearly the number of deaths peaking on April 8th.

Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date of death

April 5th 829
April 6th 805
April 7th 910
April 8th 975
April 9th 874
April 10th 850
April 11th 861
April 12th 857

And they continued falling consistently afterwards. I'm surprised you didn't know this 59, the graph showing the falling death rate from 8th April onwards was shown in every 5pm TV press briefing for three months, but strangely no one in the media picked up on it. One or two people did, but they weren't the sort of people who had their views reported on the BBC, or in the pages of the Guardian, so you wouldn't have been alerted to it, but it was in full view for those who cared to look, and the figures are still there on the GOV.UK website.

What is noticeable is that the death rate had only the one change, it goes up fairly consistently to April 8th, then it goes down consistently, and that change co-incides roughly with the onset of voluntary social distancing a month before, about two weeks before the official lockdown. It was around a month before April 8th that Mrs S told me we weren't going out, no more supermarket shopping, no more footy, no horse racing, her art and dance classes closed voluntarliy, as did local cinemas and theatres. If you look at the data around April 23rd, if the lockdown had had any effect, there should have been an acceleration in the falling death rate, there wasn't, it continued falling as consistently as before, as though the lockdown had never happened.

"To my way of thinking, if people are packed in bars, clubs, footy stadiums etc then they will catch any virus much more easily than if they kept away from each other???"

Agreed 59, but again it's another of your straw man arguments, no one is suggesting packing anyone into anywhere, you can get several thousand fans into any football stadium and a safe distance from each other, same with racecourses, which are basically huge wide open fields. I've been to several games recently at Clitheroe and one at Warrington, numbers are restricted, temperature taken on entry plus name and phone number, hand sanitisor used. So far I have not been contacted by either club, so the events must have passed off safely. Since July 4th we must have eaten out at least 50/60 times in various pubs, cafes and restaurants all over the north of England, name and phone number given at each and every one, we have not been contacted yet, so clearly eating out is not causing a surge in infections.

"As for the situation today, even under Tier 3 restrictions things are much more relaxed now than they were back then. We are in nothing like the same level of lockdown when we were told to stay at home etc. The Government are now trying to control the virus and keep the economy strong....and achieving neither."

Yes I agree with that, although 'keeping the economy strong' is a bit fanciful, the economy is total wreckage, and total lockdown would annihilate it, and still not eradicate the virus.

This is the source I check for Covid sinkov.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

April 21st was the peak on there. Perhaps our government changed the way that deaths were counted...they have done that before.

"Agreed 59, but again it's another of your straw man arguments, no one is suggesting packing anyone into anywhere, you can get several thousand fans into any football stadium and a safe distance from each other, same with racecourses, which are basically huge wide open fields. I've been to several games recently at Clitheroe and one at Warrington, numbers are restricted, temperature taken on entry plus name and phone number, hand sanitisor used. So far I have not been contacted by either club, so the events must have passed off safely. Since July 4th we must have eaten out at least 50/60 times in various pubs, cafes and restaurants all over the north of England, name and phone number given at each and every one, we have not been contacted yet, so clearly eating out is not causing a surge in infections."

I can agree with that, if you are suggesting that we severely limit attendances at footy matches, numbers allowed in bars, restaurants etc. I thought that you were suggesting that we should go back to business as usual.

In that case, we are not too far apart

[sinkov]

Those figures are quite bizarre 59, they fluctuate wildly, the peak figure of 1166 on 21st April was preceded by 494 on the 19th and 556 on the 20th. They show a 3 day moving average which peaks on the 10th and a 7 day moving average which peaks on the 13/14th, both dates well before lockdown could have had any effect. The figures on the GOV.UK site for England, which are what I have used for consistency, are compiled by NHS Trusts and Public Health England. They are the official figures used by the UK government and SAGE. Where your site gets their figures from I've no idea.

Not quite business as usual, but as close as we can to it and as quickly as possible. I have already pointed out that social distancing did seem to have an effect, we should rely on that, and the good sense of the overwhelming majority of the population. You are aware I presume that the survival rate for this so called 'deadly disease' is over 99% and the average age of those who have died is 82.4 years old ?

[sinkov]

This morning Mrs S decided she'd get us organised. Half an hour of phoning round ensued, she wanted a hairdresser's appointment, an appointment for a massage, her shoulder is playing up, I need a haircut, we needed to book into a pub for a meal on Friday night, and I needed a doctor's appointment as well, although I knew there was no chance of getting to see my doctor, I'd have to settle for a phone call.

Mrs S is booked in for her hair and massage, I'm booked in for a haircut in the morning, we're booked into the Black Bull at Old Langho for our tea on Friday. The doctor ? Ring back tomorrow morning and we'll see what we can do. I just have this feeling that somehow our priorities in this country at the moment aren't quite right.

[The Bedlington Terrier]

This morning Mrs S decided she'd get us organised. Half an hour of phoning round ensued, she wanted a hairdresser's appointment, an appointment for a massage, her shoulder is playing up, I need a haircut, we needed to book into a pub for a meal on Friday night, and I needed a doctor's appointment as well, although I knew there was no chance of getting to see my doctor, I'd have to settle for a phone call.

Mrs S is booked in for her hair and massage, I'm booked in for a haircut in the morning, we're booked into the Black Bull at Old Langho for our tea on Friday. The doctor ? Ring back tomorrow morning and we'll see what we can do. I just have this feeling that somehow our priorities in this country at the moment aren't quite right.

Good job you don't live just twenty miles up the road sinkov other you would be experiencing Blow Job's arbitrary Tier 3 malarkey.
Greater Manchester is now on "very high alert level" whatever that means!
We are experiencing 462 positive cases per100,000 people (how do they even know that?)
Household mixing is banned.
All pubs and bars are closed. No Friday tea out for us then, but we could always nip down to Old Langho I suppose? .

[sinkov]

Good job you don't live just twenty miles up the road sinkov other you would be experiencing Blow Job's arbitrary Tier 3 malarkey.
Greater Manchester is now on "very high alert level" whatever that means!
We are experiencing 462 positive cases per100,000 people (how do they even know that?)
Household mixing is banned.
All pubs and bars are closed. No Friday tea out for us then, but we could always nip down to Old Langho I suppose? .

We've been in T3 here in the Ribble Valley for a couple of weeks now BT, and the virus is virtually non-existent here, so god knows what the Mancs and scousers are moaning about. LCC sold us out quicksticks and took the government shilling, they've even got the money to pay for snoops to go around checking if businesses are conforming to the rules. It's such a lucrative business for LCC being in T3 that I doubt we'll be coming out of it any time soon, virus or no virus.

[The Bedlington Terrier]

Meanwhile Blow Job reconstructs the Peterloo Massacre in Manchester.

"Levelling up" my arse!

[1959_60]

BT, the whole of Lancashire, Greater Liverpool and Greater Manchester are under Tier 3. Pubs can open if they provide a "substantial" meal. (???)

The Government has offered exactly the same amount of money to Gtr Manc as was accepted by Gtr Liverpool and Lancashire. Why should the Mancs get more? If they did, then Lancs and Liverpool would be up in arms - along with other areas that are sure to join Tier 3 very soon. The Government cannot be seen to be treating each region differently.

Sinkov, the reason for the wild fluctuations in the figures of daily deaths is because deaths are under reported at weekend and then there is usually a spike on Tuesday when they catch up.
For some reason your figures don't reflect this.

[The Bedlington Terrier]

"The Government has offered exactly the same amount of money to Gtr Manc as was accepted by Gtr Liverpool and Lancashire. Why should the Mancs get more? If they did, then Lancs and Liverpool would be up in arms - along with other areas that are sure to join Tier 3 very soon. The Government cannot be seen to be treating each region differently."

I usually choose to ignore your whimsical fancies 59er, but you are not serious with this one are you? What what about the £25m hardship fund that Blow Job handed over to his hit man Robert Jenrick’s own Newark constituency? Even though Newark only ranked 270th on the deprivation list.

Even more worryingly, our own "Red Wall" breaker Tory MP, has acknowledged his constituency (Bolton North East) had better brace itself for another six months of this sh-itfest.

[Vintage Claret]

BT, the whole of Lancashire, Greater Liverpool and Greater Manchester are under Tier 3. Pubs can open if they provide a "substantial" meal. (???)

The Government has offered exactly the same amount of money to Gtr Manc as was accepted by Gtr Liverpool and Lancashire. Why should the Mancs get more? If they did, then Lancs and Liverpool would be up in arms - along with other areas that are sure to join Tier 3 very soon. The Government cannot be seen to be treating each region differently.

Sinkov, the reason for the wild fluctuations in the figures of daily deaths is because deaths are under reported at weekend and then there is usually a spike on Tuesday when they catch up.
For some reason your figures don't reflect this.

I think what Andy Burnham was highlighting is that the majority of the businesses that would need to close were those where their workers would be on minimum wages. Where as in the initial lockdown they would receive 80% of their average wage, what is now being offered is 66% of their average wage. While for some people getting 66% of their average wage would mean just tightening the belt, but for other it may mean not being able to afford decent food and shelter for them and their children.