O/T:- ⚠️Impressed with the leadership [The UK Party Politics Thread]

[drillerpie]

Thank goodness there’s this thing called the internet which we can use to settle trivial points of disagreement. Unless Wikipedia is considered too ‘woke’.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...hip_referendum

The point from the Wiki page about phone polling not being accurate reminds me of one I brought up a few years ago after having watched an interview with one of the few pollsters to predict Trump's win in 2016.

I can't remember the exact methodology he used but he did say something like that by calling people over the phone you're already biased towards people who don't have much to do during the day/early evening or have office jobs where they can talk for a bit.

[Elite_Pie]

The point from the Wiki page about phone polling not being accurate reminds me of one I brought up a few years ago after having watched an interview with one of the few pollsters to predict Trump's win in 2016.

I can't remember the exact methodology he used but he did say something like that by calling people over the phone you're already biased towards people who don't have much to do during the day/early evening or have office jobs where they can talk for a bit.

Regardless of any perceived poll bias, in this case some have said they never saw a pre-Brexit poll that favoured leave. There were several, and that's what made me put money on vote leave even though I voted remain. Looking at BFP's link, between 20th May and 16th June there were 30 polls. Of those 30, 9 favoured remain, 18 favoured leave, and 3 were equal. That was probably when I put my bet on.

But some never saw a poll that was in favour of leave!

[OchPie]

But some never saw a poll that was in favour of leave!

To be fair, there was an overriding sentiment in the country that Remain would win. Indeed I think that helped persuade some people to vote Leave as a protest.

The polls certainly didn't seem to panic the Remain campaign into taking things seriously and making a proper positive case for being in.

[Magpies1959]

I agree with your first sentence OchPie. I think it would have been difficult for Remain to make a positive case for staying in the EU, as how would things all of a sudden become better by staying put. They had to campaign on the supposed negatives of leaving, which should have made it a shoe in for Remain, luckily the majority saw through project fear. I also think a major factor for people voting Leave was the leaflet Cameron sent out to every household at massive cost, with a very biased Remain feel to it. It certainly helped me, make my mind up.

[Elite_Pie]

I agree with your first sentence OchPie. I think it would have been difficult for Remain to make a positive case for staying in the EU, as how would things all of a sudden become better by staying put.

It's blatantly obvious that things wouldn't suddenly become better by remaining.

It's also blatantly obvious things became worse after leaving.

[magpie_mania]

I agree with your first sentence OchPie. I think it would have been difficult for Remain to make a positive case for staying in the EU, as how would things all of a sudden become better by staying put. They had to campaign on the supposed negatives of leaving, which should have made it a shoe in for Remain, luckily the majority saw through project fear. I also think a major factor for people voting Leave was the leaflet Cameron sent out to every household at massive cost, with a very biased Remain feel to it. It certainly helped me, make my mind up.

And now more and more are seeing through the lies of many in the leave campaign.

If the vote took place in 2016, but with the benefit of seeing how it would turn out, would remain have won?

[OP67]

a major factor for people voting Leave was the leaflet Cameron sent out to every household at massive cost, with a very biased Remain feel to it. It certainly helped me, make my mind up.

Ahhhhhhh I'll never forget that, the leaflet that shouldn't have been paid for legally by tax payers money!! Big lettering, smiley faces on the Remain page. Red for DANGER and loads of text for the Leave side The government tried everything to get people to vote remain yet people still voted leave.

[forwardmagpie]

And now more and more are seeing through the lies of many in the leave campaign.

If the vote took place in 2016, but with the benefit of seeing how it would turn out, would remain have won?

Maybe I’m in the minority as all the other leave voters have seen the light but I would still vote leave.

[Magpies1959]

magpie_mania, there were more lies from the Remain side as far as I am concerned. Project fear was designed to scare the sh!t out of people, happily enough people saw through the b/s. I would definitely still vote Leave, and given recent figures, that our economy is performing better than Germany and France, I think Leave would win by a bigger majority if another referendum was held now.

[Newish Pie]

magpie_mania, there were more lies from the Remain side as far as I am concerned. Project fear was designed to scare the sh!t out of people, happily enough people saw through the b/s. I would definitely still vote Leave, and given recent figures, that our economy is performing better than Germany and France, I think Leave would win by a bigger majority if another referendum was held now.

There are some recent figures that show that the UK is performing better than Germany and France... but is still behind Italy, Japan, US, and Canada in the G7. So yay... no longer bottom of the G7.

The only agricultural industry doing well post-Brexit is the... cherry-picking industry.

As for the lies... the Leave lies are a massive steaming pile of manure. £350m for the NHS; Turkey is joining the EU; we're not going to leave the single market; fishing; being forced to join an EU army; stricter environmental policies; 40 trade agreements ready to go one second after midnight; replacing the European Regional Development Fund; easiest deal in history; "they need us more than we need them"; there's no issue with the UK/Irish border.