Election Year or Fear!

[MadAmster]

So, back in Clogland after 3 days in sunny Derbados avoiding the delights of the News and the madhouse that is antisocial media. Had a butcher's at the election results from last Thursday, browsed a bit online. Some Reform person going to sack the council's something or other as DEI or was it Climate Change was nonsense. Turns out that council doesn't have a whatever in place to sack. Said it before, these far right bods don't seem capable. Meloni is finding that she can't do half of what she wants to do because Italian law and/or international Agreements and Laws get in the way. In the Netehrlands, Wilders appoints a totally incompetent woman as immigration Minister. She cobbled together some ridiculous claptrap in order to sort the immigration issues out. The "Raad van State", a government authority that looks at proposed new Laws to conclude whether they conform with the Dutch Constitution, Dutch Law, European Law, International Law and agreements, whether the indicated costs are reasonable and affordable, whether the ministeries/institutions can actually execute the tasks a new law would require etc concluded that there was an awful lot wrong with her proposed Law. Her response? That's the policy of both me and my party and I'm not going to change a single comma. Since then a series of mayors have tried to contact her explaining how what she's expecting of them and her staff at the local level is unaffordable and unworkable. They've also explained why that is so. She won't accept phone calls from them. She doesn't read or reply to their emails. Same goes for emails from opposition MPs. Totally unreasonable behaviour.

Even the opposition parties on the left have said that they are in favour of her intended result. However, they also say that she's going about it the wrong way and that they will gladly discuss ways with her to reach the intended result, within Laws etc and also make it workable. Civil servants in the ministry have also said much of her proposal is illegal, unaffordable and unworkable. She ignores them.

The 4 party coalition could get it through the lower house as they have a majority there. However, in the upper house, they do not have a majority and the Bill will die a death there.

There is a huge willingness from both left and right to reach the end result. Faber, the minister in question, and Wilders are insisting my way or the highway.

IMO, they know, as does most of the populace, that the coalition cabinet will collapse in the course of this year. Their strategy then, at the election, will be to blame everybody else for there not being the "strongest ever immigration Laws" in place and they are hoping that will help them to a majority without the need for a coalition. They are playing games with the rest of us.

Asylum centres have closed without reducing the incoming flow of asylum seekers which means the few remaining centres are overfull. The on in Ter Apel is subject to a court ruling that sees them fined every day they have over 2000 asylum seekers staying there. There's a never ending stream of new asylum seekers and there aren't enough places available. Above the regular centres, we have emergency centres, intended for short term use to cover overflow. Half of those have been shut down. That means they have had to start using hotels. This is, therefore a political choice.

If the old regular places hadn't been shut down by the previous coalition and the emergency overflows by this one there'd be few to zero hotels being used. Regular places cost 30 grand a year per asylum seeker. The emergency ones cost 45 grand a year pp. The hotels 69 grand pp. This immigration minister keeps saying she wants to cut costs yet she takes actions that have reduced the number of regular places, reduced the number of emergency places and increased hotel use. Net effect is the annual cost has risen sharply.

The only council UKIP ever ran, went bankrupt in 7 months. Right wing Meloni isn't delivering what she promised in Italy. Wilders isn't doing it in the Netherlands either. Why do people think Farage will fare any better? I think he'll be awful if he ever gets in power.

Now, I saw a Farage video this morning. Harping on about how difficult it is to even sign on with a GP, never mind get an appointment to actually see one. He went on to say that there's been 7 point something million immigrants over the past 10 years and they are the reason it's so difficult to get a GP/appointment. I thought I'd fact check...

UK population in 2000 was 59 million and there were 39K GPs. That's 1512 patients per GP on average

UK population in 2024 was 69 million and there were 54K GPs. That's 1277 patients per GP on average

If I only go back 10 years UK population in 2014 was 64 million and there were 50K GPs. That's 1280 patients per GP on average

How is it the fault of some 7M immigrants over the past 10 years when each GP has betting on for 20% less patients than in 2000 and an average of 3 less than in 2014?

Figures rounded up/down before anybody goes all pedantic...

[Andy_Faber]

So, back in Clogland after 3 days in sunny Derbados avoiding the delights of the News and the madhouse that is antisocial media. Had a butcher's at the election results from last Thursday, browsed a bit online. Some Reform person going to sack the council's something or other as DEI or was it Climate Change was nonsense. Turns out that council doesn't have a whatever in place to sack. Said it before, these far right bods don't seem capable. Meloni is finding that she can't do half of what she wants to do because Italian law and/or international Agreements and Laws get in the way. In the Netehrlands, Wilders appoints a totally incompetent woman as immigration Minister. She cobbled together some ridiculous claptrap in order to sort the immigration issues out. The "Raad van State", a government authority that looks at proposed new Laws to conclude whether they conform with the Dutch Constitution, Dutch Law, European Law, International Law and agreements, whether the indicated costs are reasonable and affordable, whether the ministeries/institutions can actually execute the tasks a new law would require etc concluded that there was an awful lot wrong with her proposed Law. Her response? That's the policy of both me and my party and I'm not going to change a single comma. Since then a series of mayors have tried to contact her explaining how what she's expecting of them and her staff at the local level is unaffordable and unworkable. They've also explained why that is so. She won't accept phone calls from them. She doesn't read or reply to their emails. Same goes for emails from opposition MPs. Totally unreasonable behaviour.

Even the opposition parties on the left have said that they are in favour of her intended result. However, they also say that she's going about it the wrong way and that they will gladly discuss ways with her to reach the intended result, within Laws etc and also make it workable. Civil servants in the ministry have also said much of her proposal is illegal, unaffordable and unworkable. She ignores them.

The 4 party coalition could get it through the lower house as they have a majority there. However, in the upper house, they do not have a majority and the Bill will die a death there.

There is a huge willingness from both left and right to reach the end result. Faber, the minister in question, and Wilders are insisting my way or the highway.

IMO, they know, as does most of the populace, that the coalition cabinet will collapse in the course of this year. Their strategy then, at the election, will be to blame everybody else for there not being the "strongest ever immigration Laws" in place and they are hoping that will help them to a majority without the need for a coalition. They are playing games with the rest of us.

Asylum centres have closed without reducing the incoming flow of asylum seekers which means the few remaining centres are overfull. The on in Ter Apel is subject to a court ruling that sees them fined every day they have over 2000 asylum seekers staying there. There's a never ending stream of new asylum seekers and there aren't enough places available. Above the regular centres, we have emergency centres, intended for short term use to cover overflow. Half of those have been shut down. That means they have had to start using hotels. This is, therefore a political choice.

If the old regular places hadn't been shut down by the previous coalition and the emergency overflows by this one there'd be few to zero hotels being used. Regular places cost 30 grand a year per asylum seeker. The emergency ones cost 45 grand a year pp. The hotels 69 grand pp. This immigration minister keeps saying she wants to cut costs yet she takes actions that have reduced the number of regular places, reduced the number of emergency places and increased hotel use. Net effect is the annual cost has risen sharply.

The only council UKIP ever ran, went bankrupt in 7 months. Right wing Meloni isn't delivering what she promised in Italy. Wilders isn't doing it in the Netherlands either. Why do people think Farage will fare any better? I think he'll be awful if he ever gets in power.

Now, I saw a Farage video this morning. Harping on about how difficult it is to even sign on with a GP, never mind get an appointment to actually see one. He went on to say that there's been 7 point something million immigrants over the past 10 years and they are the reason it's so difficult to get a GP/appointment. I thought I'd fact check...

UK population in 2000 was 59 million and there were 39K GPs. That's 1512 patients per GP on average

UK population in 2024 was 69 million and there were 54K GPs. That's 1277 patients per GP on average

If I only go back 10 years UK population in 2014 was 64 million and there were 50K GPs. That's 1280 patients per GP on average

How is it the fault of some 7M immigrants over the past 10 years when each GP has betting on for 20% less patients than in 2000 and an average of 3 less than in 2014?

Figures rounded up/down before anybody goes all pedantic...

You don't cite a source for your stats. NHS digital, BMA, Nuffield Trust and BHF agree that the patient-per-equiv FTE GP has gone from 1500 in 2004 to 2300 in 2024, an increase of 53%, of which 6% is reduction in GPs, and 47% an increase in population. What doesn't show there of course, which isn't (directly) relevant to this discussion but which does increase pressure on GPs, is that there has also been an increase in visits-per-patient and an increase in (medical) complexity. Note that my numbers are for practising GPs and take account of part time roles. Happy to be proved wrong but the difference between us isn't 'in the rounding'

[swaledale]

So, looking at both current issues from an independent viewpoint, the voting thing appears to be somewhat less of a ‘thing’ that TTR claims, thanks for rooting that out Sith, albeit I’m not sure how biased the press source is. Lets assume they aren’t, in which case ‘nothing to see here’

The flag thing is altogether more complex, and way more so than your (rA) out of hand dismissal when I mentioned it recently. Flag flying (on flagpoles and in (my words) ‘controlled places’ (schoolrooms, inside other public buildings etc) has just got a bit out of control, Pride and Palestine flags having taken over from the now discredited or out of fashion BLM flags as devices for ‘liberal’ folk (ie teachers but by no means only them) to express their current allegiances, usually without reference to anyone else let alone a quorum. Reform’s action, crude as it is, is IMO a REaction to an unwholesome action which until recently, the (un)silent majority have felt too polite or too unempowered to react to

I think that’s a balanced opinion, one against the ‘dark side’, one for

Actually what Reform are clearly doing are actions that have little or no impact on the lives of the people who live in those areas, it is performative politics, which distracts from the reality, that actually getting things done is difficult.

I mean how does a flag being flown negatively impact upon you or anybody else? If your the type of person that froths at the mouth of such things, I'd suggest you have too much time on your hands and might be better off using it to help the community you live in.

You also make the mistake, which admittedly everyone does to an extent, of thinking that their views echo the views of the majority of people, when in reality nothing is further from the truth. This mythical silent majority, which even after last Thursdays local elections is hardly that based on the numbers that actually voted and even then those that voted for Reform had a range of different reasons, from expressing their displeasure with how the current government have acted, to being attracted by the clear bigotry and racism that reform fosters.

But there again on some occasions your "suck it up buttercup" remarks addressed to some of us on here, suggests your only in favour of empowerment or protest when it suits you.

[MadAmster]

You don't cite a source for your stats. NHS digital, BMA, Nuffield Trust and BHF agree that the patient-per-equiv FTE GP has gone from 1500 in 2004 to 2300 in 2024, an increase of 53%, of which 6% is reduction in GPs, and 47% an increase in population. What doesn't show there of course, which isn't (directly) relevant to this discussion but which does increase pressure on GPs, is that there has also been an increase in visits-per-patient and an increase in (medical) complexity. Note that my numbers are for practising GPs and take account of part time roles. Happy to be proved wrong but the difference between us isn't 'in the rounding'

Number of GPs taken from https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ed-kingdom-uk/

UK population figures taken from the Office for National Statistics via Google.

Population divided by the number of GPs gave me the figures I quoted. How other sites got different figures from population / GPs, you'll have to ask them what their sources were... unless there's an issue with my calculator

[SithHappens]

I presume the 7 million includes those from the EU who moved here during free movement. These will have been paying tax so rightly so should be entitled to health care. A fair percentage will have moved around therefore the 7 million will include many duplicate registrations.

Obviously farage wants people to think the 7 million is low life sponging illegals who live the life of Riley in 5 star hotels.

I googled GPS vs patients and it does look like there is a fair amount of conflicting information available on line.

Still can't see the issue, surely with the 350 million a week promised by farage and his gang for the NHS we can afford it no problem.

[ramAnag]

It’s maths so I’ll steer clear , but 69 million people divided by 54 thousand GPs does seem a sensible and reasonable basis.

Anyway, as Sith points out, with that promised Brexit bonus what’s the problem?

[SithHappens]

I would say ive found getting an appointment much easier recently. Not that I go often.

[Andy_Faber]

I would say ive found getting an appointment much easier recently. Not that I go often.

Its a lottery. We do OK but those around us (as discussed at our VE day 'party' yesterday) us five different nearby surgeries and all said things have 'got worse' wrt ability to get an appointment promptly and wrt seeing any given doctor more than once.

[ramAnag]

In my experience it’s a bit ‘six of one and half a dozen of the other’. I think seeing a doctor has, if anything, become easier of late, but seeing the doctor you prefer to see - in the interests of consistency - has probably become more difficult.

Taking the rough with the smooth, it’s actually being able to see a doctor quickly which is the most important thing. Seeing the doctor of your choice might be viewed as a bit of a preferable perk.

All though a far cry from the days of my childhood when the doctor lived in the biggest house in the area - about a half a mile walk away from ours. His surgery was in that house and you popped in for anything from a polio injection to stitches or, if anyone was ‘proper poorly’, he’d be round to see them that same day. I think he moved to a more modern, purpose built practice in the mid to late sixties and that was the end of that!

[Andy_Faber]

It?s maths so I?ll steer clear , but 69 million people divided by 54 thousand GPs does seem a sensible and reasonable basis.

Anyway, as Sith points out, with that promised Brexit bonus what?s the problem?

Brexit isn't/wasn't the problem, and contrary to anything Tricky might say it's not the recent/current influx of Asian/african 'illegals', it's a sheer numbers thing and there aren't really many of them, the big numbers are thanks to the reckless 'welcome one and all' decision of the nineties which produced an influx that just wasn't expected/budgeted/planned for, be they tax players or not