This insanity is endless...

[oldcolner]

Glasgow just put a note to staff to advise admissions are now as high as they were in March.

You and your conspiracy theories Sinkov Government doesn’t get involved in these, they are done by civil servants and provided to the public and parliament,

Just go to nhs digital for the numbers to July. It takes them a few months to compile and validate figures so these are the latest.
https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-info...20---july-2020

Norder
Covid deaths in USA Well Out of date - they were 235000 as of yesterday and growing at 1000 a day. .
Do you believe figures in 1920s would be accurate?

[Norder]

Norder
Covid deaths in USA Well Out of date - they were 235000 as of yesterday and growing at 1000 a day. .
Do you believe figures in 1920s would be accurate?

just trying to cite some near honest numbers...Colner - as the Spanish Flu figure, it the same as the one quoted by the CDC I believe...but if you dont believe it, I can understand why....same as elsewhere - the CDC encouraged MD's to report C'19 as a cause of death...rather than the actual cause...the patients long term underlying health conditions...as the Testing, where a Positive result doesn't necessarily mean a person is sick with it or - that they died from it.


see here:

[sinkov]

You and your conspiracy theories Sinkov Government doesn’t get involved in these, they are done by civil servants and provided to the public and parliament,

Tell me about any of my conspiracy theories OC, I'm intrigued, I don't know of any, but you clearly know more than me. I assume what you're referring to is my pointing out that journos trying to compare this autumn's hospital admissions with last autumn's are having difficulty locating the figures, that's what they're finding, or in this case not finding, but it's nothing to do with me.

I do notice though that all government comparisons are done with figures from March/April and not last autumn, which would be much more relevant, seeing as the incidence of RIs is seasonally driven. I wonder why the government doesn't compare this October's figures with previous Octobers, perhaps like the journos, they can't find them either ?

[1959_60]

As far as deaths are concerned we seem to be in a similar position as we were in February - at the start of the first wave. Death numbers rose dramatically in March, and it is probable that deaths will rise significantly in November. If this happens then will you accept the figures?

Deaths due to covid are beginning to rise, from well under 100 a day a few weeks ago to around 300 a day now (similar numbers to a major plane crash every day).
But the number of cases is rising very fast. Whether you quote the ONS, Imperial College or Kings College figures, the trend is quickly upwards.

If YOU were responsible for the Government's response, what would YOU do?

I'm just glad it's not MY problem...

[sinkov]

"As far as deaths are concerned we seem to be in a similar position as we were in February - at the start of the first wave. Death numbers rose dramatically in March, and it is probable that deaths will rise significantly in November. If this happens then will you accept the figures?"

It's like banging my head against a stone wall 59, but I'll try again. Death numbers rose in March, and then when social distancing began they were falling inside a month. They continued to fall as we approached summer, as all RIs do. They are rising again now, as all RIs do in autumn, so of course they will increase in November, and in December as well, they always do and will do so this year again, have you never heard of a winter bed crisis in the NHS, there are very few winters when there isn't one ?

So trying to compare death figures from March heading into summer, with death figures from October heading into winter, is going to lead to some very scary conclusions indeed, but if you compare the figures from October this year to previous October's, you find there's nothing exceptional about them currently. This much should be obvious to anyone of even average intelligence, and I rate you well above that 59, so why you have a brain freeze on this particular subject I have no idea.

Or perhaps this is why,

"Deaths due to covid are beginning to rise, from well under 100 a day a few weeks ago to around 300 a day now (similar numbers to a major plane crash every day)."

I assume you're not making your numbers up, but if not it does seem you have a very dodgy source, these are the government's own figures for recent Covid deaths in England in October.

20th 165
21st 181
22nd 171
23rd 162
24th 158
25th 186
26th 197
28th 174

Nothing untoward there, in fact I'd have expected them to be rising much faster at this time of year, and for sure they will go up quicker next month, as they always do, lockdown or no lockdown.

[oldcolner]

just trying to cite some near honest numbers...Colner - as the Spanish Flu figure, it the same as the one quoted by the CDC I believe...but if you dont believe it, I can understand why....same as elsewhere - the CDC encouraged MD's to report C'19 as a cause of death...rather than the actual cause...the patients long term underlying health conditions...as the Testing, where a Positive result doesn't necessarily mean a person is sick with it or - that they died from it.

see here:

How come the only dishonest ones are Covid, I guess lots of Spanish flu sufferers were shot in the trenches or blown to bits. These are guestimates not in any way accurate. Just pointing out the key numbers for your argument were wrong.

In the old days you had one cause of death, now you have a primary cause and contributing factors so as Covid can affect your heart you could die from a heart arythymia or coronary thrombosis caused by Covid. Do you class those as a Covid death? The CDC and PHE are saying yes do you believe it’s no?
It could affect your ability to drive so you die from trauma but had Covid Fever and vision impairment -Covid death yes or no.
Lots more scenarios for statisticians to decide.
Early Covid deaths were only those in hospital then community then care homes were added in and other countries found theirs changed over time. Comparison between countries is difficult.

[Norder]

.

How come the only dishonest ones are Covid, I guess lots of Spanish flu sufferers were shot in the trenches or blown to bits. These are guestimates not in any way accurate. Just pointing out the key numbers for your argument were wrong.

again....colner - the SF figure is the same figure specified by the CDC...and fairly obvious that it'll be imperfect in it's "Exactness"...much the same as those given for C'19....especially when they're counting folk with life ending ailments who die in Hospices, and show no signs of a Convid other than through a highly suspect PCR test.

[sinkov]

"Comparison between countries is difficult."

We're not agreeing on much these days OC, so I've deliberately highlighted something we can agree on. The methods of quantifying and collating Covid deaths varies so much from country to country, and I believe from state to state in the USA, that it makes any comparison virtually meaningless. This quite possibly applies to the four UK countries as well.

So we're in agreement OC, happy days.

[oldcolner]

"Comparison between countries is difficult."

We're not agreeing on much these days OC, so I've deliberately highlighted something we can agree on. The methods of quantifying and collating Covid deaths varies so much from country to country, and I believe from state to state in the USA, that it makes any comparison virtually meaningless. This quite possibly applies to the four UK countries as well.

So we're in agreement OC, happy days.

Great!
Stats are useful to those who collect them as they define what they need, but as you say once others collect to different definitions they are only good for comparing within countries.
We have fiddled ours a couple of times with initially only counting hospitals a relatively small number of collecting points, but anyone who had had COVID counted however long ago, then adding GPs and Care Homes, as hospitals couldn’t cope and patients were left at home or transferred out, then introducing the 28 day limit for COVID tests to reduce numbers.
A lot of other countries have changed too and we are now testing much more, more per capita than most big counties.

[sinkov]

Great!
Stats are useful to those who collect them as they define what they need, but as you say once others collect to different definitions they are only good for comparing within countries.
We have fiddled ours a couple of times with initially only counting hospitals a relatively small number of collecting points, but anyone who had had COVID counted however long ago, then adding GPs and Care Homes, as hospitals couldn’t cope and patients were left at home or transferred out, then introducing the 28 day limit for COVID tests to reduce numbers.
A lot of other countries have changed too and we are now testing much more, more per capita than most big counties.

I can remember reading, sometime around May I think, that a comparison of UK deaths with France was pointless, because at that time the French didn't count deaths in Care Homes in their official figures, but they were going to count them from June, or maybe it was July, can't remember. But how many more instances like this are there worldwide ? The official stats are a can of worms, they can't be trusted or relied on, but life or death decisions are being made on the basis of them.

I notice that Glum and Glummer have been called in today to face a Select Committee to explain their dodgy graph that bounced Boris into locking us down. Could be interesting, from what I've been reading, their stats are very dodgy indeed.