OT- The US midterms

[Geoff Parkstone]

Romanis said: "Florida has just passed a bill allowing people with records to be allowed to vote again, an influx of 1.5m new votes, most of them being Blacks and Latinos."

This is a staggering statistic, so there are 1.5 million people in Florida with criminal records? This is not just a speeding fine or ASBOs, this is a felony where they have been convicted and sentenced to jail. There are 7 primary felonies in the US system: murder, non negligent manslaughter, rape, robbery, felony assault, burglary and grand larceny (including that of a vehicle).

Lets just think about that for a moment - Florida has 21 million residents, lets say 15% are under 18 years of age and so cannot vote anyway, and we all know Florida is the capital of the snowbird - overage predominantly white citizens who go south for the sun in retirement, and are not what you might typically think of as murderers, rapists etc. So there might be a voting population of 15 million, many of whom are elderly.

The inference is that maybe 10% of the community aged over 18 have committed one of these jail-able felonies. That seems extraordinary to me.

Then you suggest that most of these are "blacks or latinos" (setting aside the racist presumptions underlying your assertion). 42% of Florida's population is black or hispanic. Thus the statistics as portrayed by you would imply that maybe 1 in 4 black or hispanic floridians over 18 have spent time in jail.

I am not questioning your statistics here, but just shocked at the result

[Romanis]

Romanis said: "Florida has just passed a bill allowing people with records to be allowed to vote again, an influx of 1.5m new votes, most of them being Blacks and Latinos."

This is a staggering statistic, so there are 1.5 million people in Florida with criminal records? This is not just a speeding fine or ASBOs, this is a felony where they have been convicted and sentenced to jail. There are 7 primary felonies in the US system: murder, non negligent manslaughter, rape, robbery, felony assault, burglary and grand larceny (including that of a vehicle).

Lets just think about that for a moment - Florida has 21 million residents, lets say 15% are under 18 years of age and so cannot vote anyway, and we all know Florida is the capital of the snowbird - overage predominantly white citizens who go south for the sun in retirement, and are not what you might typically think of as murderers, rapists etc. So there might be a voting population of 15 million, many of whom are elderly.

The inference is that maybe 10% of the community aged over 18 have committed one of these jail-able felonies. That seems extraordinary to me.

Then you suggest that most of these are "blacks or latinos" (setting aside the racist presumptions underlying your assertion). 42% of Florida's population is black or hispanic. Thus the statistics as portrayed by you would imply that maybe 1 in 4 black or hispanic floridians over 18 have spent time in jail.

I am not questioning your statistics here, but just shocked at the result

You're quite right there. Florida is indeed a retirement state that's why Republicans have done reasonably well. It has a large Hispanic bloc and of course a resident Black population. The Hispanics were not all Dems as some would suggest, but from recent trends the establishment to cast them as outsiders, have turned many away. Hispanics in Florida unlike California or Arizona would not necessarily be from Mexico, rather other Central American states including Cuba. I think Reagan, and the 2 Bushes did have some policies that encouraged them and gave them breaks, many then being single mothers who worked hard to ensure their kids got a good education - eg Senator Marco Rubio. GOP policies supported people like these and the Ilian Gonzalez incident under the Clinton Administration turned them away from Democrats.

But the swing to the Democrats is well and truly on. Of course there is no presumption on my part about the majority of these felons being either Black or Hispanic, but if I'm not wrong (and to be very wrong which unlikely) almost all reports not just in Florida but nationwide show a greater disparity in prisoners and felons between their racial percentages. You forgot 1 serious felony in your list which accounts for the majority with records - drug related offences. Most Whites tend to escape as they have monies and can afford lawyers, whereas the lower end Black and Hispanics cannot. This has led to record numbers in jail.

So for this 1.5m, I think maybe non-Whites might account up to 75%, maybe even more. Of course, most might not vote, in the US, the GOP controlled states realised that the key to winning is not how many people support your party, rather how many you can muster to register to vote and then ensure they vote. Registration to put it mildly is sometimes a bitch, and most of the poorer folk either don't know, don't have enough proper documents, don't have time or the money to go to the polling station. The Republicans are extremely good in this. If 750,000 of these people can turn up in 2020 and the Dems register them properly, they stand a good chance.

I might be mistaken, but if I'm not wrong, I read somewhere that only around 15 states allow felons to vote. In many of the rest, they can vote only after 2 years, but must re-register or be granted permission. In some states, even if you convicted as a minor, you still lose your right. And most do not allow those on probation to vote. So you have like 2 years after release on probation, then a further 2 years before you become eligible. So maybe these 1.5m might not be ready to vote in 2020, but say 2022 or 2024, and they might have to register, depending on exactly what legislation Florida passed.

[Geoff Parkstone]

I admire your tenacity in defence of lost causes rA - thats two now and counting!

[ramAnag]

I admire your tenacity in defence of lost causes rA - thats two now and counting!

Derby aren’t a lost cause Geoff! It was only one bad defeat...not sure what else you’re referring to.

[Geoff Parkstone]

A remaining Islamophilic Rams man

[ramAnag]

A remaining Islamophilic Rams man

Sorry...you’ve lost me.

[Geoff Parkstone]

"Remain" - lost cause: seems like a deal has been agreed, whether one that will be acceptable is the next question.
"Islamophilia" - lost cause in this company where the forum appears full of bigots
"Rams fan" - lost cause,because,well, it always seems to go wrong somewhere.

[ramAnag]

"Remain" - lost cause: seems like a deal has been agreed, whether one that will be acceptable is the next question.
"Islamophilia" - lost cause in this company where the forum appears full of bigots
"Rams fan" - lost cause,because,well, it always seems to go wrong somewhere.

Ah...sorry...long way to go with the first. As you say any deal still has to be approved by a Parliament who couldn’t currently agree what day of the week it is.
Islamophobia/bigots (your word not mine ).I’ve never coveted the approval of Gunteryy, Tricky - aka ‘EnglishTricky’ as he briefly referred to himself last night pre hasty edit - or Garibaldi.
Rams...I’m still backing us for the play offs and hoping for a ‘missing piece’ signing in January.

Wow...I’m sounding optimistic. Must be going down with something.

[Geoff Parkstone]

My word was islamophilia if you read carefully

Actually, assuming that this Brexit deal is divisive as I am sure it will be, in that it will not go far enough to satisfy either side, it could help you to achieve the second referendum that you want. Faced with the choice of approval by referendum or by general election, I suspect mayhem would choose the former..

[ramAnag]

My word was islamophilia if you read carefully

Actually, assuming that this Brexit deal is divisive as I am sure it will be, in that it will not go far enough to satisfy either side, it could help you to achieve the second referendum that you want. Faced with the choice of approval by referendum or by general election, I suspect mayhem would choose the former..

I meant ‘bigots’.
Yes I think you’re right. A second referendum seems increasingly likely. Trouble is, while the left might ‘protest too much’ when they don’t get their way we all know how the ‘reactionary right’ behaves. It won’t be pretty but it may lead, eventually, to a more sensible and less self destructive outcome.