THE Ardley In/Out Thread [Multiple threads merged]

[laddo]

Technically I predicted a 3-1 scoreline to either side.

My Dover suggestion was actually a betting tip , as the odds of 27/10 were too inviting for first game of the season which is often a "wild wild west" in terms of results.

I didn't like that Notts were slightly odds on, not a good value bet for away first game in those conditions.

"Lump on" was the clue. Sadly (for Notts) my betting suggestion was a winner.

I then predicted two home wins against Alty and Barnet, both 2-1. So wrong scorelines but that's 3 for 3 in terms of predicting the correct results £££

I note so far you haven't got any of the results right on the prediction threads. Maybe stick to betting on the horses.

Or we could have a more basic "guess the result " thread instead of "predict the score", which looks a step too far for you this season.

[Elite_Pie]

Technically I predicted a 3-1 scoreline to either side.

My Dover suggestion was actually a betting tip , as the odds of 27/10 were too inviting for first game of the season which is often a "wild wild west" in terms of results.

I didn't like that Notts were slightly odds on, not a good value bet for away first game in those conditions.

"Lump on" was the clue. Sadly (for Notts) my betting suggestion was a winner.

I then predicted two home wins against Alty and Barnet, both 2-1. So wrong scorelines but that's 3 for 3 in terms of predicting the correct results £££

I note so far you haven't got any of the results right on the prediction threads. Maybe stick to betting on the horses.

Or we could have a more basic "guess the result " thread instead of "predict the score", which looks a step too far for you this season.

I've never been very good at predicting Notts scorelines, but that wasn't the point. I was asking why a squad cobbled together at the last minute excused our defeat at Eastleigh first game last season, but the reverse didn't seem to apply at Dover.

Maybe you need a pair of Ardley-tinted spectacles to know the answer.

[laddo]

If you view the start to a season as the first game, 90 mins then no he can't excuse both.

But seriously who views the start to a season as only one game? We were massively under prepared at the start of last season (I'm sure you can agree) and our resulting start to the season was slow and poor.

You tell me Dover were/are a mess this time around, so far they have 3 points from 9. I expect them to struggle.

"Fail to prepare, prepare to fail", it's a classic. Try a step back and view approach, see the bigger picture and not view things on just a single game.

So you aren't good at predicting Notts scorelines nor results this season, interesting and noted.

You would think it being the football club you watch regularly and you know most about, that you would better at predicting our results over any other team. I'm going presume that you aren't good (as you say) because you allow bias to colour your view. Be it positive or negative bias.

Reading your comments I'm not entirely surprised you've predicted 3 draws, and we haven't had one yet.

Look forward to your Sutton away selection, another draw perhaps?

[Elite_Pie]

If you view the start to a season as the first game, 90 mins then no he can't excuse both.

But seriously who views the start to a season as only one game? We were massively under prepared at the start of last season (I'm sure you can agree) and our resulting start to the season was slow and poor.

You tell me Dover were/are a mess this time around, so far they have 3 points from 9. I expect them to struggle.

"Fail to prepare, prepare to fail", it's a classic. Try a step back and view approach, see the bigger picture and not view things on just a single game.

So you aren't good at predicting Notts scorelines nor results this season, interesting and noted.

You would think it being the football club you watch regularly and you know most about, that you would better at predicting our results over any other team. I'm going presume that you aren't good (as you say) because you allow bias to colour your view. Be it positive or negative bias.

Reading your comments I'm not entirely surprised you've predicted 3 draws, and we haven't had one yet.

Look forward to your Sutton away selection, another draw perhaps?

Obviously the start of a season isn't just one game, I was simply using that one game to highlight your conflict in logic. In laddo world poor preparation is a valid excuse if we fail to win, but it doesn't count if we lose to a team in a similar situation. I don't seem to be the only one who has noticed that you will bend the rules to whatever is beneficial to Ardley.

I just your love affair reaps it's rewards.

[Jampie]

I just don't get those posters who say "if you exclude the relegation season, Ardley's done a pretty good job".

How the f@ck can you ignore that when judging him?

He wasn't in charge for the whole season, he inherited the squad in a bloody awful state, and the club was in total chaos. Given that three managers failed in that season to turn the club's fortunes around, I would suggest that management of the team was far from the only factor in play.

I wouldn't have sacked him at the end of that season, but if others would, fair enough. The be talking about it NOW makes no sense to me. Recent performance is much more relevant. Last season we were very close to going up, despite the club chaos barely having ended in time for pre season. This season I expect us to be there or thereabouts.

[The_Don_ORiordan]

He wasn't in charge for the whole season, he inherited the squad in a bloody awful state, and the club was in total chaos. Given that three managers failed in that season to turn the club's fortunes around, I would suggest that management of the team was far from the only factor in play.

I wouldn't have sacked him at the end of that season, but if others would, fair enough. The be talking about it NOW makes no sense to me. Recent performance is much more relevant. Last season we were very close to going up, despite the club chaos barely having ended in time for pre season. This season I expect us to be there or thereabouts.

1. He was in charge for more than half a season
2. He got less points per game than one of the other managers
3. He signed a whole team in January, his team.
4. He got significantly less points than a rookie manager whose players weren’t being paid, and who could barely sign anyone.

He isn’t the whole reason we were relegated. But to ignore his part would just be daft. His negative approach and the fact the team rarely came out of the blocks firing had more to do with us dropping points in the games he was in charge than anything else.

Why is it relevant now? Which league are we in?

[magpie_mania]

1. He was in charge for more than half a season
2. He got less points per game than one of the other managers
3. He signed a whole team in January, his team.
4. He got significantly less points than a rookie manager whose players weren’t being paid, and who could barely sign anyone.

He isn’t the whole reason we were relegated. But to ignore his part would just be daft. His negative approach and the fact the team rarely came out of the blocks firing had more to do with us dropping points in the games he was in charge than anything else.

Why is it relevant now? Which league are we in?

Can't believe this is still being discussed. Talk about going round in circles!

[Jampie]

Mostly played at the lowest in the clubs history and against the poorest and often part time opposition. It does not make him one of the better managers.

If you ignore all of his defeats and draws he’s got a 100% record.

If you ignore that fact he did worse with an awful lot more against a rookie manager, managing a team who weren’t being paid regularly. You might be able to ignore that season.

He had the ability to sign an entire team with few budget restrictions. And still did worse with them than rookie sol Campbell.
You cannot ignore that season.

Man you guys are defensive. This has nothing whatsoever to do with "making excuses" and everything to do with ending Notts' long term miserable performance. This is not a club that belongs in the bananarama or league two. You aren't going to get back up there with a new manager every year. Who thinks that?

I'm looking at Ardley's performance, and yes that means win rate and other long term stats not individual games, trying to identify what impact he's had on results, and the data is pretty clear - results are improving. That's a silly time to replace him, end of story.

So how many seasons in non league where our budget far exceeds others does that equate to before that gradual improvement isn’t good enough?

As I said, I'd examine it if we don't go up this year and want to understand why.

Regarding this year's performance, I expect it to start a lot weaker than it ends, and we've had a reasonable start so far. We've got a number of very interesting new players who will need a bit of time and patience to hit their stride, and the strategy NA's implementing of essentially having two complete teams he can field so he can rotate whenever necessary is one that will pay off a lot more in a few months time than it does now. In fact it could be seen as a hindrance now because it will take longer to get "minutes on legs" as he puts it.

See that’s the sort of excuses that he shouldn’t have. Every other team has signed new players.

That paragraph has absolutely zero to do with "excuses". I'm talking about why I think performances will be even better as the season progresses. Three games in, we're solidly in the playoff spots. Too early to tell, looks like an OK start to me though. As I say, I expect a much stronger finish, and a much stronger finish compared to other teams for the reasons I outlined above.

But that’s really more about our club/squad size than the managers skill...

It's his strategy. Yes it's good the club can (apparently) afford it. I think he is due some credit there.... if it works

That simply isn’t true. Changing managers can have a short term gain.

Irrespective of how good the new manager is, there is a penalty to changing managers. It takes a long time for that negative impact to wear off. You need a massive manager upgrade to see significant improvement right away, and/or you need the problems the squad were facing to be mostly manager related.

Successful sides have long term managers because they are successful. Teams which changes their manager usually have reason.
That doesn’t mean either is correct or incorrect.

Bear in mind Ardley's last post went for six years, and he's currently got a higher win rate than he achieved there.

Sacking a manger isn’t the problem, replacing them with one who isn’t better is.

Sacking a manager is a problem. It's always a problem. Failing to replace sacked manager with a better one is an even bigger problem, for sure.

I guess that's a question for me to ask the pro-sacker crowd. Who do you want to replace him with? IMO you should have a better replacement signed before you let him go. A big problem we had in the relegation season is that managers were sacked with NO replacement lined up, twice. That's borderline insanity.

[Jampie]

1. He was in charge for more than half a season
2. He got less points per game than one of the other managers
3. He signed a whole team in January, his team.
4. He got significantly less points than a rookie manager whose players weren’t being paid, and who could barely sign anyone.

He isn’t the whole reason we were relegated. But to ignore his part would just be daft. His negative approach and the fact the team rarely came out of the blocks firing had more to do with us dropping points in the games he was in charge than anything else.

Why is it relevant now? Which league are we in?

And if we'd sacked him at the end of that season, citing those reasons, I'd understand it. Probably not what I would do, but I'd get it. Sacking him a season later, after coming within one game of promotion, right at the beginning of a new season? Crazy talk. And yeah, I think the relegation season is much less relevant to judging his performance than last season. As I say, given three arguably decent managers ALL failed to turn it around, I suspect there was more going on than "bad manager".

[Elite_Pie]

He wasn't in charge for the whole season, he inherited the squad in a bloody awful state, and the club was in total chaos. Given that three managers failed in that season to turn the club's fortunes around, I would suggest that management of the team was far from the only factor in play.

I wouldn't have sacked him at the end of that season, but if others would, fair enough. The be talking about it NOW makes no sense to me. Recent performance is much more relevant. Last season we were very close to going up, despite the club chaos barely having ended in time for pre season. This season I expect us to be there or thereabouts.

I wonder if laddo knows he's got an identical twin?