O/T:- Ukraine [Incorporating 'Congrats to Russia' thread]

[drillerpie]

A lot of things happening in the conflict right now.

Obviously the hit on the bridge today is the big one. The official story from Moscow is that it was a truck bomb, bit from security videos it looks like it was from a Ukrainian drone boat sent under the bridge. We'll have to wait and see, but in any case it's a big psychological blow, and a large amount of fuel was blown up (also railway presumably now unuseable) on the train that was passing over at the time.

A less reported event (but you can find video of it on social media) is the Russian special internal police forcefully arresting a public relations head for Wagner.

The head of Wagner, and so of course Wagner's PR channels too, have been very critical of the Russian defence minister Shoigu recently. This arrest is probably a warning from Shoigu not to overstep the mark.

This is a split between the old guard, who seem to think the war is a bad idea and is unwinnable, and the new guard who are jostling for position if the old guard happen to be, ahem, put on indefinite gardening leave.

Perhaps the least reported story, but maybe the most significant in some ways, is that the leader of Belarus has decided to fight inflation by banning price increases. This obviously won't work, and will just cause companies to stop making things it is not profitable to make for less than the price limit. Shortages for the masses and a $ black market for the elite will happen soon.

Given that he is already hanging on to power by a thread (there was alleged widespread fraud at the last election and he had to call Putin's security services and Russian riot police to quell the protests), it will be interesting to see what happens there next.

[optipez]

A lot of things happening in the conflict right now.

Obviously the hit on the bridge today is the big one. The official story from Moscow is that it was a truck bomb, bit from security videos it looks like it was from a Ukrainian drone boat sent under the bridge. We'll have to wait and see, but in any case it's a big psychological blow, and a large amount of fuel was blown up (also railway presumably now unuseable) on the train that was passing over at the time.

A less reported event (but you can find video of it on social media) is the Russian special internal police forcefully arresting a public relations head for Wagner.

The head of Wagner, and so of course Wagner's PR channels too, have been very critical of the Russian defence minister Shoigu recently. This arrest is probably a warning from Shoigu not to overstep the mark.

This is a split between the old guard, who seem to think the war is a bad idea and is unwinnable, and the new guard who are jostling for position if the old guard happen to be, ahem, put on indefinite gardening leave.

Perhaps the least reported story, but maybe the most significant in some ways, is that the leader of Belarus has decided to fight inflation by banning price increases. This obviously won't work, and will just cause companies to stop making things it is not profitable to make for less than the price limit. Shortages for the masses and a $ black market for the elite will happen soon.

Given that he is already hanging on to power by a thread (there was alleged widespread fraud at the last election and he had to call Putin's security services and Russian riot police to quell the protests), it will be interesting to see what happens there next.

They're heading for an internal putsch at best, civil war, second best or lashing out with no thought for tomorrow at worst. Very unstable situation with no way for Russia to just turn round and go home while Putin is in charge.

[Jampie]

I am a bit skeptical of the truck bomb idea, for two reasons:

1. TWO spans of the bridge are down, with one still standing in between... which is very difficult to achieve with a single explosion, unless that's the worst built bridge ever (can't rule that out can we)
2. The visible explosion doesn't perfectly line up with the truck in any of the videos I've seen

Still, however it was done, there's no denying that's yet another massive disaster for Russia's war effort. Road both ways looks out (at least for now) and the rail line is out of action too, looks very damaged. There is exactly _one_ other rail line connecting Russia with the entire western theatre of war, and that's already within HIMARS range, and has already been hit in the past.

Supply problems are going to get significantly worse now, and a thrust southward to Melitopol by Ukraine now would be an abject disaster for Russia. They would have no choice but to throw everything at it to stop it.

[drillerpie]

Yeah it's a strange one. There is a boat visible under the bridge at exactly the time of the blast. It's hard to tell where the blast comes from but yeah it doesn't seem to quite come from the truck.

Also the truck came from the Russian side and was filmed being checked, which makes it even more unusual.

[drillerpie]

They're heading for an internal putsch at best, civil war, second best or lashing out with no thought for tomorrow at worst. Very unstable situation with no way for Russia to just turn round and go home while Putin is in charge.

Yeah I would agree with that. Putin probably could use the state propaganda machine to invent a fake victory and withdraw, but he has clearly stated his opinion that Ukraine is historically and spiritually Russian land, so that is unlikely to happen.

Having said that he is mean poker player who relies on upping the ante to achieve his goals, even when not holding the best cards.

This has worked extremely well for him in the last decade. But surely now he must realise the ante is being upped against him, he's no longer in control of the game, and he risks losing everything.

[BigFatPie]

It would just be our luck if there’s nuclear annihilation when we’re top of the league.

[countygump]

It would just be our luck if there’s nuclear annihilation when we’re top of the league.

It could be worse, it could happen on the day we officially win the League.

[BigFatPie]

It could be worse, it could happen on the day we officially win the League.

As long as we were still promoted…

[Elite_Pie]

As long as we were still promoted…

“The Oldest Football League Club in what’s left of the World”.

[drillerpie]

Meanwhile on Russian state TV, a Russian man reminisces about 1980 when Russian speaking Ukrainians with Russian surnames told him they saw Russia as an occupier (fair comment given the forced displacement, forced famine, persecution of Ukrainian cultural figures and so on).

Another man then shows exactly why they are hated so much.