Election Year or Fear!

[Geoff Parkstone]

‘2 different UK news outlets’ who just happen to be Starmer’s leading critics, The Sun and The Daily Telegraph. Entirely coincidental of course.

I think on balance I am happy to see Starmer not following the warmnonger Blair's strategy in joining in with the offensive actions against Iran, but that doesnt seem to have stopped Iranian counter strikes on British installations in Cyprus. Now it seems he's agreed to allowing US to use our airbases in their actions, in common with many other European countries, notably Greece.

iIs a delicate balance to try to achieve, especially in view of our non EU status and the relatively new trade deals with US and Starmer is doing OK in my view in this respect, trying to walk the tightrope - but for how long I dont know. Seems the Chinese are lining up behind Iran (no surprise there as its all about Chinese aceess to Iranian oil) and this escalation will heap more pressure on NATO.

Am struggling to see a good ending here as IMO its not about Iranian regime change per se, its about the bigger battle for economic dominance between US and China and cutting off Chinese access to energy by destabilising their biggest supplier, having just taken tighter control over their second biggest supplier in Venezuela. Can see maybe the Chinese moving in on Taiwan whilst the other two major powers focus on their own battles, but they for sure cannot sit back and watch their oil suppliers get consumed in this way.

Much as I think regime change in Iran is a laudable objective, I really dont think its the main point here, and Starmer is right to stand back from this for now - something I have to say through gritted teeth :-)

[Geoff Parkstone]

Well there is another route that can and will be used if the conflict continues, so prices will rise which might temper demand but doubt it will slump.

Well tradewinds reports that Hormuz has just been closed trapping 3200 ships inside the gulf. I will let them know your details so you can advise these alternative routes that shipowners and charterers clearly arent aware of

Clarksons suggest 112 crude carriers stuck amongst the 3200 which is 4% of the world fleet. Loadsa money to be made Swale in solving their problem