O/T DDay for Brexit..well sort of...

[mellowmiller]

This country has been a sh*t storm for millions of people since the tories have been in power, and it continues, yet people are so blinded by the media bias it really is unreal....and wow, really wow...

I don't think there's a group of politicians in the country who know how to deal with this mess and I've never understood why some people have blind faith in one party or another.

[millmoormagic]

I don't think there's a group of politicians in the country who know how to deal with this mess and I've never understood why some people have blind faith in one party or another.

I only ever judge a party on three things, their attitude and care for the nhs, education, welfare state, take a good look at all three and tell me you can vote tory, ever......

[KerrAvon]

I only ever judge a party on three things, their attitude and care for the nhs, education, welfare state, take a good look at all three and tell me you can vote tory, ever......

And there's your problem (and Labour's), it's all about spending with where the money is coming from simply not being on your radar.

[caytonmiller]

all the politicians should be ashamed of themselves. were going into a brexit where it will have a massive effect on us for years to come and all they can do is score brownie points or slate each other... fingers can be pointed at whoever, though one thing remains. were in this sht storm together yet these nobs dont give two tossers

[mellowmiller]

I only ever judge a party on three things, their attitude and care for the nhs, education, welfare state, take a good look at all three and tell me you can vote tory, ever......

Hmm, I'm sure the likes of Kinnock, Blair, Mandelson, Prescott etc didn't worry too much about those things while living a life of luxury. In fact they're so well-to-do they probably vote Tory.
Politicians? Bloody self-serving hypocrites the lot of them.

[millmoormagic]

Hmm, I'm sure the likes of Kinnock, Blair, Mandelson, Prescott etc didn't worry too much about those things while living a life of luxury. In fact they're so well-to-do they probably vote Tory.
Politicians? Bloody self-serving hypocrites the lot of them.

hmmm, not a fan of most of those myself, but what i can garauntee is that they spent a bigger %age on the big three than any tory gov't.....i get the anto politician rhetoric i really do, but please temper it with what is the reality of it.....

[ragingpup]

I'm guessing you don't remember 1974 to 1979? If you did you would know that damage was done in more than people's minds.

You seem to me moving from a position where the report showed nothing to where it showed Labour in a good light... I think animal's fluidity problem may be catching.

If you've done an analysis that allows you to make the comment that you will find that there is very little difference by excluding 1997 to 2010, why don’t you share it?

By 2022, I’m hoping to be retired and living in France, so I doubt if I will be overwhelmed. If a Corbyn stylee Labour government gets in, history suggests you and the other people who vote them in will be underwhelmed and quickly looking to replace them with the Tories.

The data I shared showed it. You're good at trawling up posts, and clearly care about this. So find the data and you'll find that it shows exactly what I've said. I dare you : do it and report back where the Conservative historical record on the economy from 56 to 80 is better than labour. Due to the mid 70s there was a dip but overall, nothing between prior labour governments and past/future governments. Use the ONS stats to show otherwise. I look forward to your report. Good luck x

[KerrAvon]

The data I shared showed it. You're good at trawling up posts, and clearly care about this. So find the data and you'll find that it shows exactly what I've said. I dare you : do it and report back where the Conservative historical record on the economy from 56 to 80 is better than labour. Due to the mid 70s there was a dip but overall, nothing between prior labour governments and past/future governments. Use the ONS stats to show otherwise. I look forward to your report. Good luck x

So you are saying that you have done an analysis of the figures in order to state there is very little difference by excluding 1997 to 2010. Good stuff. Why won't you share your working out?

I think you missed my questions concerning your alignment policy. You have obviously spent a lot of time thinking about that (whilst not working through ONS figures with your calculator}. Surely you want to share the details with us?

Stop digging raging. I’m embarrassed for you.

[ragingpup]

So you are saying that you have done an analysis of the figures in order to state there is very little difference by excluding 1997 to 2010. Good stuff. Why won't you share your working out?

I think you missed my questions concerning your alignment policy. You have obviously spent a lot of time thinking about that (whilst not working through ONS figures with your calculator}. Surely you want to share the details with us?

Stop digging raging. I’m embarrassed for you.

For Kerr (everyone else excuse long post).

As you're a lazy dawg, here are the main points from the report (based on ONS data, sheet of this was attached to the original post, you can find it online if you wish). These points are pretty much all comaring Labour v Tory rocord on economic indicators from 56 - 97:

Public spending

• Within the UK, since 1972/3 (the start of the dataset) the highest three years for Total Managed Expenditure (TME) as a share of GDP were from 1974/5 to 1976/7. However, Mrs Thatcher’s early governments oversaw the highest sustained 5 year period of public spending as a share of GDP, with public spending that was 46% or more for a record 5 consecutive years, from 1980/81 to 1984/5.

• As regards UK public sector current spending (i.e. excluding capital spending), the highest figure as a percentage of GDP was 40.4% in 2009/10 under the Brown government. However, the highest sustained period of current spending was under the Thatcher government, from 1981/2 to 1984/5. Her government also saw a higher level of current spending as a share of GDP for 6 consecutive years than in any year of the 1974/9 Labour government.


Public Debt

• Taking the amount of annual debt interest payments as a share of GDP since 1964, these peaked under the 1979-97 Conservative government at 3.5%, and were lowest under the 1997-2010 Labour government at 2.3% of GDP. With the increase in public debt since 2009, this increased to 2.9% of GDP under the Coalition government


Employment

Since 1970, the best average annual unemployment rate was achieved by the Heath Conservative government of 1970/4 with 3.4%, and by far the worst under the 1979/97 Conservative government, with an average annual rate of 9.3%, and exceeding 10% for 6 full years. The 1974/9 Labour government had an average rate of 4.9%, and the 1997-2010 government 5.6%.


Public expenditure as a share of GDP

Within the UK, since 1972/3 the highest three years for Total Managed Expenditure (TME) were from 1974/5 to 1976/7 with 47%, 48.9%and 47.8% before it slipped back to 44.1% in the last year of the Labour government, and to 43.7% in 1979/80.
However, it was Mrs Thatcher’s early governments that saw the highest sustained 5 year period of public spending as a share of GDP - she oversaw public spending that was 46% or more for a record 5 consecutive years, from 1980/81 to 1984/5: 46%, 46.4%, 46.9%, 46.6%, 46.3%, before it fell back to 44% in 1985/6

As regards UK public sector current spending (i.e. excluding capital spending), the highest figure as a percentage of GDP was 40.4% in 2009/10. However, the highest sustained period of current spending was again achieved by Mrs Thatcher’s government, from 1981/2 to 1984/5, with 40.1%, 40.3%, 39.9% and 40%. And Mrs Thatcher’s government had a higher level of current spending as a percentage of GDP for 6 consecutive years, starting in 1981/2, than in any year at all of the Wilson/Callaghan government (highest level, 38.3%).

So on the facts, Mrs Thatcher’s early governments were for 5 or 6 years, by a reasonable margin, the highest spending ones of any government (for better or for worse!), taking both TME and current spending into account, over the whole period to the present.
Current budget deficit/surplus as a percentage of GDP: Conservative governments have an average annual surplus of 0.3% of GDP over the 53 year period to 2008, while Labour governments have an average annual surplus of 1.1%.


Public sector net debt

In the first year of the 1974-9 Labour government, UK net public debt stood at 55.8% of GDP, down from over 200% at the end of the 2nd World War. At the end of 1978/9, net debt was down to 49%, a fall of 6.8%.

During Mrs Thatcher’s government, net debt fell steadily, then (during the Lawson boom) rapidly, to a record low of 24.2% of GDP in 1990/91. When the Lawson boom turned to bust, followed by the forced exit from the ERM, the debt to GDP ratio climbed rapidly again till the end of the Major government, when it reached 39.9% of GDP in 1996/7.

The average annual debt interest payments as a percentage of GDP per government since 1964 are as follows:
1964-70 Labour 2.8%
1970-74 Conservative 2.5%
1974-79 Labour 2.9%
1979-97 Conservative 3.5%

• Under the 1974-79 Labour government, the net debt to GDP ratio in the last year was some 7 percentage points lower than at the start.
• Under the 1979-97 Conservative government, the debt to GDP ratio was around 16 percentage points lower at the end than at the outset.
• Looking at annual debt interest payments as a percentage of GDP, these have varied between 1.8% and 4.3%. The highest levels of interest as a percentage of GDP were during Mrs Thatcher’s government, when for 6 consecutive years, interest payments were over 4% of GDP.

[KerrAvon]

For Kerr (everyone else excuse long post).

As you're a lazy dawg, here are the main points from the report (based on ONS data, sheet of this was attached to the original post, you can find it online if you wish). These points are pretty much all comaring Labour v Tory rocord on economic indicators from 56 - 97:

Public spending

• Within the UK, since 1972/3 (the start of the dataset) the highest three years for Total Managed Expenditure (TME) as a share of GDP were from 1974/5 to 1976/7. However, Mrs Thatcher’s early governments oversaw the highest sustained 5 year period of public spending as a share of GDP, with public spending that was 46% or more for a record 5 consecutive years, from 1980/81 to 1984/5.

etc.

I’m not sure where you think you are going with this. You told me that you had a document that showed no difference between Labour and Tory governments and I speculated how the figures would look if you took the non-Labour governments of 1997 to 2010 out of the data. In response, you assured me that it would make no difference, which, of course, caused me to believe that you’d sat and worked through the raw data to be so confident. When I asked you for your workings out, you’ve posted a load of stuff that includes the non-Labour governments of 1997 to 2010. Did you mean to post something else?

The significance of the Blair/Brown non-Labour government data being included is that it will skew the figures quite markedly as you are talking 13 years of government compared with only 11 years of actual Labour government within the period of the data set. You will recall that when he came to power in 1997, Blair kept to his manifesto promise (those were the days!) and followed the spending plans of the outgoing Tory administration. That resulted in him running significant budget surplus for several years.

As gm hints, isn’t the issue here that – if we accept your assertion that the data shows no difference between the outurns of the two brands of government – you have to look at the inputs in tax takes. In other words, given that the Tories tend to be tax cutters, isn’t the position that you are setting out that you pay less under the Tories to get the same results?