O/T:- Ukraine [Incorporating 'Congrats to Russia' thread]

[drillerpie]

Some surprising claims being made here.

It seems counter-intuitive that transitioning to a wartime economy, losing a lot of foreign investment (although many foreign companies' assets were frozen and remain in Russia, and new investment will have come in from China), throwing several hundred thousand working-age men into the meat grinder, losing a couple of million people of working age who are scared of being drafted into the military, and losing lucrative contracts for the supply of natural resources, would lead to a healthy economy.

This also doesn't seem to tally with the constant demands by Russia for the sanctions to be lifted. Intuitively you would think that if they weren't hurting Russia, the Russians wouldn't care about getting them lifted.

Anyway I had a little dig and the situation seems to be tricky this in terms of GDP predictions, because a lot of data that analysts would normally use to calculate their figures is being withheld by Russia, and there are some doubts over the data that is published. The Russia desk of the IMF reportedly admitted to Fortune magazine that they have 'basically zero visibility' into the Russian economy, but have to come up with a prediction. However, the figures are as follows:

IMF: Originally predicted a 2.3% contraction of the Russian economy in 2023, which was recently revised to 0.3% growth. The Managing Director of the IMF reiterated this month that the medium term predictions are for a 'quite devastating' contraction in the Russian economy of at least 7%.

World Bank: predicts a 3.3% contraction of the Russian economy in 2023.

OCSE: predicts a 5.6% contraction in the Russian economy in 2023.

Russian Central Bank poll of Russian economists: predicts a minimum 1.5% contraction of the Russian economy in 2023.

Russian economy ministry: predicts a 0.8% contraction of the Russian economy in 2023.


Earlier this month the Russian government's own figures reportedly stated the budget deficit was $34b for Jan and Feb 2023, compared to a $5.5b surplus for Jan and Feb 2022. That's a $40b reversal, for just 2 months of this year.

Perhaps that is not surprising when it is also reported that its revenues for the sale of oil and gas had fallen by around half (46%). The Russian invasion of Ukraine led to a sharp rise in oil and gas prices which helped the Russian coffers, but has now subsided. While all oil prices have fallen, Russian oil has fallen more than most - before the war Russian crude traded for 7% less than Brent crude, now it is 33% less.

I won't bother saying anything about the rouble as it is not a freely exchangeable currency - they have extended capital controls - so it's frankly silly to make comparisons to other currencies.

To sum up, from the figures I have seen, it would be misleading to say that the outlook for the Russian economy is healthy and the sanctions are having little or no effect, as according to the majority of GDP predictions but most significantly according to the budget deficit they are.

Anyone saying sanctions are not working has to cherry pick positive predictions from a sea of negative predictions and empirical data, although the 'sanctions aren't working so let's not bother with them any more' line does seem to be a discernable pro-Kremlin communications strategy.

[drillerpie]

There have also been some posts about Russia's attitude to Ukraine and whether it still considers Ukraine part of its 'empire'.

Luckily we don't have to speculate too much, as Putin has written a long essay on the subject which is available on the Kremlin website http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181

It's a long read and too long to post here, but to summarise it he gives a partial and Russia-friendly (no mention of the Soviet enforced famine in Ukraine, no mention of the Ukrainian writers and artists sent to the gulag, and so on) from the origins of the Rus until the present day.

He complains that Russia wuz robbed, by ... Russia (or rather the USSR) who weren't really paying attention when deciding the borders of the Ukrainian SSR, and compares it to where the borders of Russia were in the 1600s and calls it 'Russia's historical lands' - a phrase he is quite fond of, which I take to mean 'lands where Russia should still have an imperial claim'.

He admits that (inconveniently for him) Russia did recognise the borders of Ukraine, but he is not happy about it. He is even less happy at what he perceives as the ungratefulness of Ukraine in looking to the West, and states how this is what has made Ukraine poor (his soldiers might disagree though, judging by the amount of washing machines I saw being looted from Ukraine and sent back to Russia).

There's all the standard stuff about the EU, NATO, USA, Nazis that you would expect. There's even a mention of Nazis burning people alive in Odessa, which was mentioned on here a lot until I posted a report (I think from the UN) from observers on the ground who told quite a different story.

For me, the most telling sentence comes near the end, when he says "I am confident that true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia."

That is a sentence worth thinking about. Sovereignty can be defined as 'supreme power or authority', or 'the authority of a state to govern itself'. Ukraine is a sovereign country, meaning it can decide its own future, choose what alliances to join or not join and so on. According to Putin though, this is not TRUE sovereignty.

TRUE sovereignty is only possible when Ukraine is in the orbit of Russia, taking orders from Russia. You don't want any of that actual sovereignty where you can decide what to do, you need TRUE sovereignty where we will tell you what to do. I imagine Putin think Belarus is a shining example of TRUE sovereignty.

He's a top notch gaslighter.

I have very little doubt that Putin's is an imperial war. Most European countries have got over the loss of their colonies and their imperial aspirations died in the second half of the last century, but I think Russia is somewhat backward in certain respects, and they are having their reckoning with their loss of empire now.

[Old_pie]

There have also been some posts about Russia's attitude to Ukraine and whether it still considers Ukraine part of its 'empire'.

Luckily we don't have to speculate too much, as Putin has written a long essay on the subject which is available on the Kremlin website http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181

It's a long read and too long to post here, but to summarise it he gives a partial and Russia-friendly (no mention of the Soviet enforced famine in Ukraine, no mention of the Ukrainian writers and artists sent to the gulag, and so on) from the origins of the Rus until the present day.

He complains that Russia wuz robbed, by ... Russia (or rather the USSR) who weren't really paying attention when deciding the borders of the Ukrainian SSR, and compares it to where the borders of Russia were in the 1600s and calls it 'Russia's historical lands' - a phrase he is quite fond of, which I take to mean 'lands where Russia should still have an imperial claim'.

Thanks for the summary. I don't think Gorbachev was on his Christmas card list.

[drillerpie]

Seeing as I'm here, it's been a while since I posted some videos.

Jackanory Russian style

[drillerpie]

Some random BS about giving nukes to Ukraine + strong Raqqa 2014 vibes as some Russian Muslims are dispatched into the grinder.

[optipez]

Some surprising claims being made here.

It seems counter-intuitive that transitioning to a wartime economy, losing a lot of foreign investment (although many foreign companies' assets were frozen and remain in Russia, and new investment will have come in from China), throwing several hundred thousand working-age men into the meat grinder, losing a couple of million people of working age who are scared of being drafted into the military, and losing lucrative contracts for the supply of natural resources, would lead to a healthy economy.

This also doesn't seem to tally with the constant demands by Russia for the sanctions to be lifted. Intuitively you would think that if they weren't hurting Russia, the Russians wouldn't care about getting them lifted.

Anyway I had a little dig and the situation seems to be tricky this in terms of GDP predictions, because a lot of data that analysts would normally use to calculate their figures is being withheld by Russia, and there are some doubts over the data that is published. The Russia desk of the IMF reportedly admitted to Fortune magazine that they have 'basically zero visibility' into the Russian economy, but have to come up with a prediction. However, the figures are as follows:

IMF: Originally predicted a 2.3% contraction of the Russian economy in 2023, which was recently revised to 0.3% growth. The Managing Director of the IMF reiterated this month that the medium term predictions are for a 'quite devastating' contraction in the Russian economy of at least 7%.

World Bank: predicts a 3.3% contraction of the Russian economy in 2023.

OCSE: predicts a 5.6% contraction in the Russian economy in 2023.

Russian Central Bank poll of Russian economists: predicts a minimum 1.5% contraction of the Russian economy in 2023.

Russian economy ministry: predicts a 0.8% contraction of the Russian economy in 2023.


Earlier this month the Russian government's own figures reportedly stated the budget deficit was $34b for Jan and Feb 2023, compared to a $5.5b surplus for Jan and Feb 2022. That's a $40b reversal, for just 2 months of this year.

Perhaps that is not surprising when it is also reported that its revenues for the sale of oil and gas had fallen by around half (46%). The Russian invasion of Ukraine led to a sharp rise in oil and gas prices which helped the Russian coffers, but has now subsided. While all oil prices have fallen, Russian oil has fallen more than most - before the war Russian crude traded for 7% less than Brent crude, now it is 33% less.

I won't bother saying anything about the rouble as it is not a freely exchangeable currency - they have extended capital controls - so it's frankly silly to make comparisons to other currencies.

To sum up, from the figures I have seen, it would be misleading to say that the outlook for the Russian economy is healthy and the sanctions are having little or no effect, as according to the majority of GDP predictions but most significantly according to the budget deficit they are.

Anyone saying sanctions are not working has to cherry pick positive predictions from a sea of negative predictions and empirical data, although the 'sanctions aren't working so let's not bother with them any more' line does seem to be a discernable pro-Kremlin communications strategy.

You're correct Driller, the sanctions are hurting and it will get worse as time goes by. They're cannibalizing planes and trains as they can't get parts, they're now shipping tanks to the frontline that are 50+ years old. They're now mobilising students from Moscow, straight from college as they've burnt their way through so many of the last draft.
It is a terrible time for Ukraine but their weaponry has got better with more to come while Russia is steadily losing capability.
That they refuse to any longer publish figures on the economy tells you how it's going.
I'm not saying that they're going to lose but they don't look like an army making much headway either. They'll be paying for this mess for decades, Russia was already seeing depopulation before the war, now they've lost up to 2 1/2 million of their youngest, brightest and most dynamic in a brain drain and anywhere between 85-150,000 troops dead or injured depending on what figures you believe.

[drillerpie]

You're correct Driller, the sanctions are hurting and it will get worse as time goes by. They're cannibalizing planes and trains as they can't get parts, they're now shipping tanks to the frontline that are 50+ years old. They're now mobilising students from Moscow, straight from college as they've burnt their way through so many of the last draft.
It is a terrible time for Ukraine but their weaponry has got better with more to come while Russia is steadily losing capability.
That they refuse to any longer publish figures on the economy tells you how it's going.
I'm not saying that they're going to lose but they don't look like an army making much headway either. They'll be paying for this mess for decades, Russia was already seeing depopulation before the war, now they've lost up to 2 1/2 million of their youngest, brightest and most dynamic in a brain drain and anywhere between 85-150,000 troops dead or injured depending on what figures you believe.

Yes I completely agree with all of that.

As well as the tanks, I also saw today that India has said Russia won't be able to honour contracts for arms purchases they made. It's hard to believe that everything is going as planned.

I think Putin will try and hang in there until the 2024 US elections (expect a huge increase in nuclear Armageddon rhetoric around that time), where depending on who wins his luck might change.

If he doesn't get a sympathetic US president, and nothing changes domestically in Russia, it's hard to see where they go from here. Probably losing territory to China either by treaty or by force in the next 25 years.

[drillerpie]

Imperial nostalgia

[Old_pie]

What was the vote in the UN on Russia Ukraine?

Furthermore, it demands that Russia "immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw" from Ukraine as it is violating its territorial integrity and sovereignty.

The resolution was passed with an overwhelming vote of 143 in favour, 6 against (5 plus Andy) and 35 abstaining.

This is the company that Andy associates himself with (or at least gives a good impression of so doing):

B: Belarus
D: Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea)
E: Eritrea
M: Mali
N: Nicaragua
R: Russia
S: Syria

Even Cuba couldn't quite bring themselves to support their old friends, publicly anyway.

[drillerpie]

Even Driller has told us that some of his Ukrainian friends are forced to feel ashamed of their own native language and are scrambling to learn Ukrainian

I don't know if you get a such a kick out of being provocative that it doesn't bother you if you have to lie to do so, or you are just plain retarded.

The fact that you know full well I could pull up and quote my post (#459 if anyone's bothered) about my friends in Dnipro and prove you wrong, but you went ahead wrote it anyway, makes me think it's the former, but I'm not ruling out that it could be both.