O/T:- Ukraine [Incorporating 'Congrats to Russia' thread]

[Jampie]

Not at all! He says that the Russians have been sending wave upon wave of untrained and unarmed troops into battle against the valiant Ukrainian defenders who weep as they mow the hapless Russians down. Given that there’s only one rifle for every 3 Russian soldiers, they have to wait to pick up the rifle of their fallen comrade. The only thing keeping the Russians going are stolen washing machines, anti-retreat forces that shoot deserters and the fact that they’re all souped up on viagra.

Honest injun!

For someone so desperate to "both sides" everything when it suits russian propaganda, you sure leap from one extreme to the other here.

If Russian casualties are light, why are the following statements true:

1. They started the war with 150k-200k troops in theatre
2. They have never been able to adequately supply that many for active operations at once, let alone more
3. They been losing ground (net) since March
4. This is despite *constantly* attacking prepared defenses, most recently in Bakhmut but that's been the pattern of Russian "tactics" the entire war
5. They have been recruiting constantly through various means throughout the war
6. They needed 300k conscripts a few months ago
7. They are talking about more conscription in the future.

How do those numbers add up to anything less than "Russia has suffered severe casualties in Ukraine".

[andy6025]

Every “point” you state might very well be true... but then again most of them might not be.

I definitely agree with your first point, that they started with around 150k-200k troops. That seems to “fit” with all the claims I’ve seen made no matter who makes them.

I don’t know if the claim is true that they haven’t been able to adequately supply their troops. I’ve heard western sources claim that Russia is almost out of everything, but I’ve not yet seen that to be true. I saw footage of Ukrainian soldiers supposedly having found a Russian army ration pack and the were begrudgingly impressed with it. But they could have been Russian actors dressed up like Ukrainian soldiers for all I know.

That said, for all either of us know, Russia could run out of everything tomorrow. Then again they might not. They might not be able to carry on fighting until they roll into Paris and then cross the English Channel... you know, to satisfy Putin’s legacy of wanting to take over all of Europe.

I hear plenty of western officials and media saying that the “collective west” is almost out of most weapons and ammunition they’re so far willing to supply Ukraine. But maybe it’s not true and they’re lying. I’m not sure why they would... maybe they’re just getting stingy?

Russia lost a lot of cow pasture around Kharkiv and they withdrew from Kherson in the fall. I’ve heard some analysts say that the Ukrainian army in the northeast essentially ‘punched air’ and took heavy losses in the process. Same thing in Kherson - the Ukrainians threw a lot of troops at it, with the hospitals as far as Odessa getting jammed up with their wounded. And Kherson held until the Russians conducted an orderly withdrawal overnight, and did so to avoid having their troops encircled in the event that Ukraine blew up the damn upstream and flooded Kherson. Maybe that’s all false though and instead the Ukrainians advanced with minimal losses while the Russian bodies piled up and/or thousands were taken prisoner. I haven’t seen any Ukrainian telegram channels posting such images or footage though. But it could be that, aside from the Ukrainian soldier shown on CNN Nazi saluting in Kherson, the Ukrainians are extremely gracious winners. I won’t deny it’s possible!

Since the autumn the Russians have made some marginal territorial gains. It’s not a controversial fact as its confirmed by both western and Russian forces, but I won’t be surprised if you deny it. You could be right should you suggest they’re all lying for some strange reason that’s not yet obvious to me.

The Russians claim that they prioritize the destruction of the Ukrainian army over territorial gain, but that could well be a lie to try to cover up their embarrassment. The western reporters and doctors in Bakhmut that are tending to the Ukrainian wounded have reported horrendous Ukrainian casualty numbers. For all I know though they could be on the Kremlin pay roll and are spreading fake news. Perhaps Russia’s winning the “information war” after all.

As for Russian military recruiting, I don’t think it’s a controversial point that Russia has been recruiting troops and underwent a mobilization of supposedly 300k (I suspect the real number is unknown to the general public - could be lower or higher for all we know). If that’s some indication that Russia is losing or taking higher losses, well, I’m not sure how you’d apply that logic to the fact that Ukraine is also recruiting. In fact, and unless western sources are lying to make the Ukrainians look bad, Ukraine has thus far had 9 mobilization waves (or are we at 10 or 11?). A Ukrainian official announced last week that Ukraine might undergo another wave of mobilization in the new year, while another official denied it the next day. A few weeks ago British officials announced that Ukraine ought to undergo another wave of mobilization.

Russian officials have stated that they aren’t considering another wave of mobilization in the early new year, but they could be lying. I’ve also heard rumours that they could.

As for the “quality” of new recruits, the head of the “Mozart” PMC (Ukraine’s answer to the Wagner PMC) said that around 80% of the new Ukrainian recruits sent into Bakhmut hadn’t fired a single shot in training. And he said that the reports of units losing 70% of their troops as wounded or KIA are not exaggerations. I guess it’s possible that he’s a Putin asset spreading false claims. That would be a tough one to explain and tbh I’m not sure which of these scenarios would be worse? I’ll let you pick!

Meanwhile Russia’s mobilization was *supposed* to be aimed at only those with prior military training. Media on both sides (including both Russian state and private media) reported some people being recruited that didn’t fit this official criteria, even some people terminally ill being sent notices. They later claimed to have “fixed” these problems... but it’s well possible they haven’t and that, like Ukraine recruiters who pull people off the streets and out of nightclubs, the Russians too are just grabbing anybody and everybody.

This is the interesting thing - that it’s quite difficult to ascertain what claims are true and what aren’t.

That’s what I think the strength of that young fellow’s video is - not his final figures, but that he explains what each side is claiming (including those who are
‘independent’) and shows their *methodology*, in so far as they appear to have any, to back up their claims. And then he shows his own numbers, his own methodology, and invites criticism. To me, that makes for thoughtful viewing.

As for these numbers add up? Well, Ukraine boasts to have recruited a million man army since the war began (I use that as a turn of phrase... I don’t mean to disregard the women they’ve recruited). I’d imagine that it’s well practical for Russia to need more troops than the 150-200k they started with to defeat 1M on the attack, whether Russia’s losses have been light or heavy. I get that you might hold the Russian army in high regard, but even if we go with the higher estimate of 200k attacking 1 million - that’s a 1:5 ratio! That’s astonishingly impressive when they’re both supposedly out of everything and can’t supply their own troops!!! Who are these super-men? Maybe it’s the viagra? Or was that fake news too... I can’t remember.

[Jampie]

Every “point” you state might very well be true... but then again most of them might not be.

They are true and you've failed to refute any of them as usual.

I don’t know if the claim is true that they haven’t been able to adequately supply their troops. I’ve heard western sources claim that Russia is almost out of everything, but I’ve not yet seen that to be true. I saw footage of Ukrainian soldiers supposedly having found a Russian army ration pack and the were begrudgingly impressed with it. But they could have been Russian actors dressed up like Ukrainian soldiers for all I know.

Considering there are plenty of russian sources that say they've had massive logistics issues you need to have been doing some extremely selective reading to believe otherwise.

We know they're using Iranian drones and arty shells from North Korea. What does that tell you?

That said, for all either of us know, Russia could run out of everything tomorrow. Then again they might not. They might not be able to carry on fighting until they roll into Paris and then cross the English Channel... you know, to satisfy Putin’s legacy of wanting to take over all of Europe.

There you go with that insane black and white thinking. No, at least one of us is sure Russia isn't going to "run out of everything tomorrow". But I have been watching the war from day one and from the first week onwards they haven't been able to adequately support offensive operations on more than one of their fronts at once. They pretty clearly can't supply more troops in the field, which brings me back to the original point... if they haven't taken significant losses, where are all their hundreds of thousands of new troops going, and where are the 150k they started with?

I hear plenty of western officials and media saying that the “collective west” is almost out of most weapons and ammunition they’re so far willing to supply Ukraine. But maybe it’s not true and they’re lying. I’m not sure why they would... maybe they’re just getting stingy?

Western officials don't use the phrase "collective west"... that's a kremlin term buddy. Show me evidence for this claim?

US stocks alone could supply Ukraine for all of next year and they will be happy as larry to produce more stuff. It's huge industry over there.

Russia lost a lot of cow pasture around Kharkiv and they withdrew from Kherson in the fall. I’ve heard some analysts say that the Ukrainian army in the northeast essentially ‘punched air’ and took heavy losses in the process. Same thing in Kherson - the Ukrainians threw a lot of troops at it, with the hospitals as far as Odessa getting jammed up with their wounded. And Kherson held until the Russians conducted an orderly withdrawal overnight, and did so to avoid having their troops encircled in the event that Ukraine blew up the damn upstream and flooded Kherson. Maybe that’s all false though and instead the Ukrainians advanced with minimal losses while the Russian bodies piled up and/or thousands were taken prisoner. I haven’t seen any Ukrainian telegram channels posting such images or footage though. But it could be that, aside from the Ukrainian soldier shown on CNN Nazi saluting in Kherson, the Ukrainians are extremely gracious winners. I won’t deny it’s possible!

12k square kilometers liberated in the Kharkiv offensive, and 4.8k near Kherson. That's a lot of cow pasture! Meanwhile Bakhmut is not even 50km from the starting line on Feb 24 and still in Ukrainian hands after ten months of war. Russia's losing the war buddy, look at a map.

Since the autumn the Russians have made some marginal territorial gains. It’s not a controversial fact as its confirmed by both western and Russian forces, but I won’t be surprised if you deny it. You could be right should you suggest they’re all lying for some strange reason that’s not yet obvious to me.

Yeah they've made marginal gains since abandoning the entire north of the country but have lost far more to Ukrainian offensives. And yes, Ukrainians have avoided attacking strong points, preferring to bypass them / hit them with artillery. Meanwhile, every report from the front says Russians are attacking strong positions frontally. That alone explains their catastrophic losses to me.

The Russians claim that they prioritize the destruction of the Ukrainian army over territorial gain, but that could well be a lie to try to cover up their embarrassment. The western reporters and doctors in Bakhmut that are tending to the Ukrainian wounded have reported horrendous Ukrainian casualty numbers. For all I know though they could be on the Kremlin pay roll and are spreading fake news. Perhaps Russia’s winning the “information war” after all.

Yes it's obviously a lie since they're using basically all of their deep strike capacity to attack the civilian electricity network which has no discernible impact on the Ukrainian military. Do they think the Ukrainians hide their troops in civilian substations?

The truth as I see it is that they just don't have the ISR necessary to target the Ukrainian military, and the electricty grid strikes are basically dumb window-dressing revenge for the Kersch strait bridge. Basically they can hit substations because they don't move and you can find them using a pre-war satellite map, but they can't target actual Ukrainian military stuff because they can't pinpoint the locations.

As for Russian military recruiting, I don’t think it’s a controversial point that Russia has been recruiting troops and underwent a mobilization of supposedly 300k (I suspect the real number is unknown to the general public - could be lower or higher for all we know). If that’s some indication that Russia is losing or taking higher losses, well, I’m not sure how you’d apply that logic to the fact that Ukraine is also recruiting. In fact, and unless western sources are lying to make the Ukrainians look bad, Ukraine has thus far had 9 mobilization waves (or are we at 10 or 11?). A Ukrainian official announced last week that Ukraine might undergo another wave of mobilization in the new year, while another official denied it the next day. A few weeks ago British officials announced that Ukraine ought to undergo another wave of mobilization.

Russian officials have stated that they aren’t considering another wave of mobilization in the early new year, but they could be lying. I’ve also heard rumours that they could.

Not sure what this rambling screed is about. Ukrainians are taking losses too, yes, and their ongoing recruitment efforts are to be expected.

As for the “quality” of new recruits, the head of the “Mozart” PMC (Ukraine’s answer to the Wagner PMC) said that around 80% of the new Ukrainian recruits sent into Bakhmut hadn’t fired a single shot in training. And he said that the reports of units losing 70% of their troops as wounded or KIA are not exaggerations. I guess it’s possible that he’s a Putin asset spreading false claims. That would be a tough one to explain and tbh I’m not sure which of these scenarios would be worse? I’ll let you pick!

Think about it for ten seconds. If this was true how is Bakhmut still in Ukrainian hands? Wagner's been attacking there since almost day one of the war. Do you really think the Ukrainians, who you say above have a million troops, still don't have enough trained to hold a small town after ten months of war? And if so, why has the mighty Wagner failed to take it?

Link the evidence if you've got it, by all means.

That’s astonishingly impressive when they’re both supposedly out of everything and can’t supply their own troops!!! Who are these super-men? Maybe it’s the viagra? Or was that fake news too... I can’t remember.

Why do you keep bringing up Viagra? What's that about? That's probably something you should discuss with your doctor, not me.

Anyway, in summary, you dismiss Russia's massive losses in controlled territory with a "oh we didn't need that cow paddock anyway" and you ignore any claims of significant troop losses... because you can't deal with the reality. The simple, obvious reality that this war has absolutely not gone according to Putin's plan. It's an unmitigated disaster and that's plain to see.

For the record the regard I hold the Russian army was never high and it's been steadily dropping since February.

How do you imagine this is going to end? Do you think the Ukrainians are just going to give up and let Russia have... anything? Do you think western leaders will get bored of supplying Ukraine and being able to blame Putin for their economic mismanagement?

Personally I think the most likely outcomes are:

1. A return to the February 24 borders
2. The complete rout of Russian forces in Ukraine and the return of all territories, including Crimea

And some options in-between. It's possible Russia will fight Ukraine to a standstill beforehand but I doubt it. Ukrainian public support of the war, including the ultimate aim of returning everything, including Crimea, is still increasing. The attacks on civilian infrastructure will only strengthen Ukrainian resolve. Meanwhile the west will be happy to keep supplying weapons as long as the Ukrainians want to fight.

What's the alternative?

[keldsyke]

I used to live in the Uk and have family that live there now. Never got all that interested in the Premier League. Started following Notts in the Munto season. I catch a few games whenever I go over every couple of years, otherwise I’m listening in on Saturday mornings will I do myself a fry up.

Bought myself a fridge magnet from the club shop.

Edit: also got myself a tea towel but it can’t mop up for shît... just swishes it around, so I don’t think that counts.

Thanks appreciated 👍

[andy6025]

Given that I’m short on time this morning, I’ll let one point stand as representative to show that even the officials and media of the collective west don’t hold the rosy assessment playing out in the Jamside Story. Here’s the sources you requested showing that the west is not only running out of weapons to supply Ukraine, but they don’t have the capacity to quickly produce more. Given that you’ve been supposedly following the war closely since day 1, you should be outright embarrassed to even ask for these.

CNCB - The U.S. and Europe are running out of weapons to send to Ukraine

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/09/28/...o-ukraine.html

Centre For Strategic & International Studied - Is the United States Running out of Weapons to Send to Ukraine?

https://www.csis.org/analysis/united...s-send-ukraine

Foreign Policy - Ukraine’s Appetite for Weapons Is Straining Western Stockpiles

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/11/16...-low-industry/

CNN - US is running low on some weapons and ammunition to transfer to Ukraine

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/11/17/p...ine/index.html

The New York Times - U.S. and NATO Scramble to Arm Ukraine and Refill Their Own Arsenals

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/26/w...e-ukraine.html

Bloomberg - Ukraine War Is Depleting America’s Arsenal of Democracy

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...uverify%20wall

Politico - EU countries are running out of weapons, says Borrell

https://www.politico.eu/article/borr...t-weapons/amp/

CBC News - As Ukraine pleads for more weapons, allies warn the cupboards are almost bare

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6578148

ABC News - US ammunition supplies dwindle as Ukraine war drains stockpiles

https://amp.abc.net.au/article/101515370

Associated Press - Weapons shortages could mean hard calls for Ukraine’s allies

https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...1fb9a4e0412c4a

And the puppet master that’s probably feeding the western media all these lies (and probably has them on the Kremlin payroll), is the notorious... wait for it... Russia Today (RT)!

https://www.rt.com/russia/568165-ukr...r-defense/amp/

[Jampie]

Centre For Strategic & International Studied - Is the United States Running out of Weapons to Send to Ukraine?

https://www.csis.org/analysis/united...s-send-ukraine

So this is the only one that isn't mass media, which, remember when you used to discredit mass media before you discovered you could cherry pick articles that seem to support your narrative?

And here's Cancian's conclusion:

Although some U.S. stocks are running low, alternatives―older, experimental, or nonstandard systems―are available, and these will constitute an increasingly large proportion of transfers. The United States might also acquire some stocks from third countries. The reliance on alternatives does not indicate a lack of commitment or a reduction in military capability. These systems can still be effective on the battlefield. However, they are an acknowledgment that the U.S. military was not structured to fight or support an extended conflict. That should, of itself, spark some debate in the national security establishment about budget priorities. In the meantime, the flow of weapons and munitions will continue, as will the war.

So while the Ukrainians have to contend with "limited" (thousands or tens of thousands left) stocks of some munition types the Russians don't even have,

1. There are alternatives
2. Production of the good stuff is mostly ongoing and can will be ramped up if the war drags on THAT long
3. Russia is already dipping into North Korean supplies of dumb (unguided) arty shells and buying drones from technical military giants Iran

And as usual, you've addressed not a single thing in my reply. I'm sorry, you just wont be able to spread your delusions of Russian victory here. Russia is toast, buddy.

[andy6025]

So this is the only one that isn't mass media, which, remember when you used to discredit mass media

If you want to argue with the western media as well as the plethora of officials they quote, and remind them that they’re not cheerleading for Ukraine hard enough - be my guest! It’s not a complaint we often hear, but I do find your unique take rather fascinating. With all those sources kowtowing to the Russian narrative, perhaps Russian assets and pee tapes are a lot more pervasive than is typically advertised. Who woulda thunk Russia would win the information war after all. It’s a good thing Ukraine’s on the verge of victory in the actual war, u know, with their “older, experimental, and non-standard systems”. Then again maybe your friend Mark Cancian is also a Putin Puppet. Who on earth can you trust these days?!?!

Edit: I just thought of a good catch line for the Jamside approach to all this: “older, experimental and non-standard!”

[Jampie]

As always, your arguments are in tatters and you respond with zero substance. Pathetic.

[andy6025]

As always, your arguments are in tatters and you respond with zero substance. Pathetic.

Your argument is that they’re out of modern weapons to give Ukraine, but have plenty of “old, experimental and non-standard systems” to give them... what else do you want me to argue when you’ve already laid it out yourself?

[Jampie]

Your argument is that they’re out of modern weapons to give Ukraine,

At no point did I say they were out of modern weapons. You can't even quote honestly. The fact is the "collective west" as you call it hasn't given Ukraine a single western tank, jet, medium range missile, precision guided bomb or air to air missile. Not one. Think about that for a minute, and consider that every one of those items was specifically designed to trash the opposing Russian crap.

The second offset strategy has been active for literally decades, and based on how armoured vehicles fare against shoulder mounted anti tank weapons developed under it, I wouldn't be looking forward to Ukraine running low on the cheap stuff if I were you.

There is plenty of stuff left to give, and the factories for the existing older stuff we've already been donating can all be ramped up. Some of them massively so. If this thing drags on, Ukraine is not going to run out of stuff to kill Russians with.

After ten months of war, Putin's cheer squad (you included) are literally reduced to fantasising about the Ukrainians running out of ammunition. This is the only way you can seriously consider victory.

The sad part is that all Russia has to do is leave the Ukrainians alone and get out. And we all know they wont. Not until they're forced out.